美國企業首季盈利預測遭下調 US first quarter earnings outlook dims on falling oil

Wall Street analysts have slashed expectations for US earnings in the first quarter as companies grapple with plummeting oil prices and slow economic growth.

華爾街分析師大幅調降了對第一季度美國企業盈利的預期，原因是油價暴跌和經濟增長放緩令企業難以應對。

The growing pessimism comes amid a brutal start to the year for the stock market during which the S&P 500 has been marked by volatility as the outlook for global economic growth darkens, led by uncertainty over the slowdown in China.

人們的悲觀情緒越來越強烈之際，隨着全球經濟增長前景變得黯淡（尤其是中國經濟放緩帶來不確定性），股市今年出現了極爲糟糕的開局，標普500(S&P 500)指數出現了大幅波動。

At the outset of the year, analysts had forecast a return to growth of 0.6 per cent in US first-quarter earnings per share on a year-on-year basis, according to FactSet. They have since marked estimates down to a decline of 7.4 per cent.

根據FactSet的數據，今年伊始分析師們預計美國第一季度每股盈利會恢復增長，同比增幅達到0.6%。自那以來，他們已經把盈利估計下調至降低7.4%。

“It does appear that companies are having difficulty gaining traction in this low-growth environment and that is putting downward pressure on earnings,” said Alan Gayle, director of asset allocation at RidgeWorth Investments.

RidgeWorth Investments資產配置主任艾倫•蓋爾(Alan Gayle)表示：“企業在這種低增長環境下似乎難以獲得增長動力，這給企業盈利帶來了下行壓力。”

The potential quarter of shrinking profits follows the worst earnings season since the aftermath of the financial crisis during which earnings have fallen for three consecutive quarters and revenues have fallen for four.

在這一企業利潤可能縮水的季度之前，美國遭遇了自金融危機爆發以來的最差業績報告季，企業盈利連續三個季度下跌，營收連續四個季度下滑。

Early forecasts that 2016 would provide a turnround have been re-evaluated largely because of an expected earnings drop of 93 per cent at energy companies, as the price of crude oil dropped to a 13-year low. That is nearly double the decrease analysts had projected for the sector two months ago.

起初，人們曾預計2016年會出現止跌回升的現象。然而，這一預期已在很大程度上被重新評估，原因是能源企業因原油價格跌至13年低點而致預期盈利下滑93%，這一下跌幅度幾乎是分析師們兩個月前對該產業預計降幅的兩倍。

Forecasts were for revenues for S&P 500 companies to shrink 0.6 per cent, while at year-end analysts were looking for growth of 2.6 per cent.

對標普500成分股企業的預期是營收縮水0.6%，而在去年年底分析師曾預計會增長2.6%。

Russ Koesterich, chief investment strategist at BlackRock, said: “We have a world where global growth is expected to have come down, financial market conditions have tightened and energy prices have fallen further. All of these are headwinds at the market level and not a great environment to grow the top line.”

貝萊德(BlackRock)首席投資策略師拉斯•凱斯特里奇(Russ Koesterich)表示：“我們面臨的是一個全球增長預計將會放緩、金融市場狀況趨緊、能源價格進一步下滑的世界。所有這些都是市場層面上的不利因素，對營收的增長十分不利。”

Neither top nor bottom line growth is expected to return until the second half of the year and investors say the worsening outlook could mean further stock market declines.

預計不論營收還是利潤，在今年下半年以前都不會恢復增長。投資者表示，不斷惡化的前景可能意味着股市會進一步下跌。

“Sentiment has stabilised recently,” Mr Gayle said. “The negative revisions I don’t think have really sunk in. From that perspective, I think there is more downside risk in the market as we get closer to first-quarter earnings season.”

“市場情緒最近已趨於穩定。”蓋爾表示。“我認爲這些負面的下調還未真正被人們認識到。從這個角度來說，我認爲隨着一季度業績公佈季節日益臨近，市場還存在更多下行風險。”

Companies have also disappointed investors with their own outlooks.

企業自身的前景展望也令投資者失望。

About 110 companies in the index have issued EPS guidance for the first quarter with 88 issuing projections below analysts’ expectations, worse than the five-year average of 72 per cent.

標普500指數的成分股企業中，大約有110家企業發佈了第一季度每股盈利指引，其中88家企業發佈的預期低於分析師的預測，這一比例高於72%的五年平均。