取消現金的好處 The benefits of scrapping cash

John Cryan, co-head of Deutsche Bank, is not a man given to hyperbole. A couple of weeks ago, however, he made a comment about money that might make ordinary mortals blink.

德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的聯合首席執行官約翰克賴恩(John Cryan)不是慣於誇張之人。然而，不久前，他的一番有關貨幣的話卻可能讓普通人感到驚訝。

Speaking on a financial technology panel at Davos, he cheerfully predicted that in a decade’s time cash probably won’t exist. Yes, you read that right: all those grubby greenbacks and tattered euro bills in your wallet are heading for the dustbin of history. “There is no need for it,” Mr Cryan declared. “It is terribly inefficient and expensive.” Can we believe him? Not if you look at the data.

在達沃斯的一場金融技術小組討論期間，他輕快地預測道，10年後現金很可能將不存在。是的，你沒看錯：你錢包所有那些骯髒的綠背美鈔和破爛的歐元票子即將進入歷史的垃圾箱。“沒人需要現金，”克賴恩宣稱，“它的效率非常低，使用成本特別高。”我們能相信他的話嗎？不能——如果你看看數據的話。

It is true that in recent decades, as electronic finance has taken hold, our use of cash has been declining. According to the Bank for International Settlements, outstanding cash in circulation was 7.9 per cent of gross domestic product in the largest 19 economies in 2014, the most recent available data; in 2010 it was 8.4 per cent.

沒錯，近幾十年，隨着電子金融的興起，我們使用現金的場合越來越少。根據國際清算銀行(BIS)的數據，2014年（可獲得數據的最近年份）），19個最大經濟體的流通中現金餘額爲國內生產總值(GDP)的7.9%；2010年則爲8.4%。

But what is striking is not the fact that cash use has declined but how slow — and uneven — this trend has been. Indeed, if you look at the total volume of cash in circulation, rather than cash as a percentage of GDP, Sweden is the only leading western economy where it has recently declined. Elsewhere it has been rising. In Japan, Switzerland, the eurozone and the UK, the ratio of cash to GDP has actually grown.

但引人注目的不是現金使用減少的事實，而是這一趨勢的發展是多麼緩慢和不均衡。的確，如果你看看流通中的現金總量而不是現金與GDP的百分比，瑞典是近年流通現金總量減少的唯一主要西方經濟體。其他國家的流通現金一直在增加。在日本、瑞士、歐元區和英國，現金與GDP的比率實際上有所增加。

In Japan today cash in circulation is more than 20 per cent of GDP, while in Switzerland the ratio is above 10 per cent. In the UK, this ratio is 3.7 per cent, higher than in 2010. Those smartphone bank accounts and innovations in blockchain technology might look flashy but they have not killed off paper money. Yet.

在日本，如今流通中現金超過GDP的20%，在瑞士，該比率超過10%。目前，英國的該比率爲3.7%，高於2010年。那些智能手機銀行賬號和區塊鏈(Blockchain)技術創新，看起來或許很時髦，但它們並沒有消滅紙幣。至少到現在爲止還沒有。

Why? It is partly down to consumer habit, coupled with a popular mistrust of banks in countries such as Japan that have suffered financial busts. Another factor is that millions of poor households, even in America, still do not use banks. Criminals, terrorists and tax-evaders also tend to use cash for their operations, particularly large denomination bills.

爲什麼？部分原因在於消費者習慣，同時，在日本等遭遇過金融崩潰的國家，很多人不信任銀行。另一個因素是，數以百萬計的貧窮家庭——即使是在美國——仍然不使用銀行服務。犯罪分子、恐怖分子和逃稅者也傾向於使用現金，尤其是大面額鈔票。

The other factor, though, is the behaviour of central banks themselves. One unintended consequence of super-loose monetary policy is that it has reduced incentives for consumers to store their money in banks. With low interest rates in many developed economies, and negative rates in places such as Switzerland and Japan, savers are likely to find they receive negligible returns or may even be penalised with charges. This may be boosting cash usage, too, although nobody knows exactly to what degree.

不過，還有一個因素在於央行本身的行爲。超寬鬆貨幣政策引起了一個意想不到的後果，那就是它降低了消費者把錢存入銀行的動力。由於許多發達經濟體實行低利率，瑞士和日本等地執行負利率，儲戶可能會發現他們得到的回報微不足道，或者甚至可能被收費、受到懲罰。這或許也在加大現金的使用，儘管誰也不知道具體程度。

But the really interesting thing is what happens in the next few years. For there are at least three situations bubbling that could yet change this dynamic and prove Mr Cryan at least partly right.

但真正有意思的將是未來幾年發生什麼，因爲至少有三件不斷升溫的事情可能改變當前局面，證明克賴恩至少是部分正確的。

First, and most obviously, digital and cyber finance is spreading rapidly. Second, some governments are belatedly realising that reduced use of cash is helpful in terms of security and fighting crime. After all, drug dealers and Islamist militants generally do not use bank accounts or mobile payments. So one way to cut terrorism and crime might be to withdraw the big denomination bills they prefer. The European Commission is already pondering this: it announced this week that it is looking at whether to curtail the use of 500 notes. This seems a sensible step, one that other governments should consider.

第一、也是最明顯的是，數字和互聯網金融正在快速發展。第二，一些政府姍姍來遲地意識到，減少現金使用有利於治安和打擊犯罪。畢竟，販毒者和伊斯蘭主義好戰分子一般不使用銀行賬戶或移動支付。所以，取消他們所青睞的大面值鈔票，或許是打擊恐怖主義和犯罪的一條途徑。歐盟委員會已在考慮這一點：它最近宣佈，正在研究是否減少500歐元紙幣的使用。這似乎是明智的措施，其他政府也應該考慮。

The third factor that could influence cash usage in the next few years is, again, the stance of central banks themselves. As rates turn negative, central bankers in places such as Switzerland are scrambling to prevent consumers dashing into cash as this not only makes financial transactions less efficient but also makes monetary policy less effective. After all, if people hold physical cash — which, unlike a bank account, is not directly affected by negative rates — central bankers have less control.

第三個可能影響未來幾年現金使用的因素，再次在於央行本身的姿態。隨着利率進入負區間，瑞士等國的央行官員們正想方設法阻止消費者爭搶現金，因爲那不但降低金融交易的效率，而且會降低貨幣政策的效果。畢竟，如果人們持有實物現金——跟銀行賬戶不同，它不會受到負利率的直接影響——那麼央行官員的控制力將會減弱。

So far, nobody has seriously tried to ban cash to make negative rates more effective. But the idea has been floated by people such as Andy Haldane, Bank of England chief economist, and Kenneth Rogoff, the Harvard economist. The idea still seems far-fetched — but the longer rates stay low or negative the more “unthinkable” proposals could become mainstream and (if nothing else) prompt official support for electronic finance.

到目前爲止，誰也沒有爲了讓負利率政策更有效而真正嘗試禁用現金。但英國央行(BoE)首席經濟學家安迪霍爾丹(Andy Haldane)和哈佛大學(Harvard)經濟學家肯尼斯圠格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)已提出了這一構想。它看來仍然遙不可及——但是，利率保持在低位或負值區間的時間越長，“難以想象的”提議進入主流的可能性就越大，至少會促使官方支持電子金融。

It may take longer than a decade for Mr Cryan’s prediction to come to pass; but it would be dangerous to discount it. For better or worse, the nature of money is changing. And who knows? If this revolution helps curtail tax evasion and terrorist finance — and makes our lives more convenient along the way, too — it might turn out to be one of the better developments to have emerged from the finance industry in recent years.

克賴恩的預測可能需要比10年更長的時間才能變爲現實；但忽視它將是危險的。無論好壞，貨幣的性質正在變化。誰知道呢？如果這一革命有助於抑制偷稅和恐怖主義融資——同時給我們的生活提供更多便利——它或許是近些年來金融業出現的較好動態之一。