港元出現逾10年最大單日跌幅

The Hong Kong dollar had its worst one-day fall in More than a decade yesterday as investors speculated that it might have to adjust its long-running peg to the US dollar.

港元在本週四創下逾10年來最大單日跌幅，原因是投資者紛紛猜測當局將不得不調整長期實施的盯住美元的聯繫匯率制度。

It slipped 0.25 per cent against its US counterpart to HK$7.7886, a rate last reached in 2011 but still within its permitted range of HK$7.75 to HK$7.85. It was the currency’s biggest one-day slide since October 2003.

港元兌美元跌幅達0.25%，至1美元兌7.7886港元，這是自2011年以來未見的低位，但仍處在7.75-7.85的限定範圍。這是港元自2003年10月以來的最大單日跌幅。

The fall was another sign of the renminbi’s volatility spilling over into other markets. Last week bets that the Chinese currency would weaken more sharply than expected pushed the offshore rate to its weakest against the dollar in more than five years.

此番下跌是人民幣匯率波動蔓延至其他市場的又一標誌。上週，對人民幣貶值將超出預期的押注使得離岸人民幣匯率跌至逾5年來的低點。

Buying by the People’s Bank of China this week strengthened the currency, sending offshore renminbi-denominated borrowing rates rocketing.

中國央行本週的購入加強了人民幣，使離岸人民幣計價的借貸利率出現飆升。

Strategists said the Hong Kong dollar’s weakness was a result of investors betting that China’s slowdown, and its softer currency, could lead the city to reconsider its regime.

策略師們表示，港元走軟是投資者押注中國經濟放緩以及人民幣貶值可能使香港當局重新考慮其匯率制度的結果。

Zhou Hao, strategist at Commerzbank, said: “While we don’t doubt the credibility of the peg regime in the foreseeable future, the abnormal movements of Hong Kong dollar reinforce the risk-averse sentiment triggered by the recent China market turmoil.”

德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)策略師周浩說：“雖然我們不懷疑聯繫匯率制度在可預見未來的可信度，但港元的異常變動加劇了中國市場近期動盪所引發的避險情緒。”

The double blow of rising US interest rates and China’s economic slowdown is expected to weigh heavily on Hong Kong’s economy this year. Analysts at HSBC recently cut their growth forecasts for the city from 2.2 per cent to 2 per cent.

美國加息及中國經濟放緩的雙重打擊預計將在今年嚴重拖累香港經濟。匯豐(HSBC)分析師最近將香港經濟增速預測從2.2%下調至2%。

When the Hong Kong dollar last slipped significantly, in August after China’s unexpected 2 per cent devaluation, speculation that the city might change its peg was swept aside as investors, worried about mainland weakness, swapped renminbi deposits for Hong Kong dollars, strengthening the latter.

去年8月，港元在人民幣突然貶值2%後顯著下跌，當時有關港元可能會脫鉤美元的猜測沒有被理會，擔憂內地經濟疲軟的投資者紛紛將人民幣存款兌換爲港元。

Since then the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has bought US dollars on numerous occasions to keep the Hong Kong currency within its band.

自那時起，香港金融管理局(Hong Kong Monetary Authority)多次干預匯市以保持港元處於限定區間。

Few expect the peg, in place since 1983, to come under serious threat this time, having survived the handover of the city from the UK, the Asian financial crisis, Sars, the global financial crisis and China’s economic rise.

很少有人認爲，自1983年實施至今的聯繫匯率制度這一次會受到嚴重威脅，它經歷了香港迴歸、亞洲金融危機、非典、全球金融危機以及中國經濟的崛起而巋然不動。

“Of all the pegs in the world, the Hong Kong dollar is not the one that I think is going to go,” said Kit Juckes, macro strategist at Société Générale.

法國興業銀行(Société Générale)宏觀策略師基特ㄠ克斯(Kit Juckes)表示：“在全世界所有與美元掛鉤的貨幣中，我不認爲港元會成爲脫鉤的一個。”