警惕基金公司走上銀行老路 Fund managers must not become banks in disguise

The crisis of 2008 showed the perils that can lurk in rapidly Growing financial sectors. And few have grown faster in recent years than the business of fund management.

2008年的危機表明，快速發展的金融行業可能潛藏着危險。近些年來，很少有哪個行業的發展速度比基金管理行業更快。

Assets under management have more than doubled in size over the past decade, and the industry now runs some $74tn of money around the globe, according to Boston Consulting Group. That is equivalent to nearly one year’s gross domestic product for the world, or roughly two-thirds the total assets of its banks.

波士頓諮詢公司(BCG)數據顯示，過去10年裏，這個行業的規模擴大了一倍以上，目前在全球管理着約74萬億美元資金。這相當於世界近一年的GDP，約爲全球銀行業總資產的三分之二。

Growth in itself is nothing to worry about. But the sector’s explosion has gone hand in hand with a shift into more illiquid assets. Over the past 30 years funds have been moving away from developed government bonds and equities to more hard-to-shift debt holdings.

增長本身不值得擔憂。但伴隨着爆發式增長，流動性差的資產卻在增多。過去30年裏，基金公司一直在減少發達國家的政府債券和股票，轉而持有更多難以轉讓的債務。

A larger, less-liquid industry poses questions at a time of uncertainty in financial markets. Nervousness is growing about the impact on asset managers of prospective interest rate rises and the unwinding of quantitative easing. These jitters have been compounded by the decision of sovereign wealth funds to pull money from asset managers, linked at least in part to the fall in the price of oil. In the latest quarter they yanked some $19bn according to the data provider, eVestment.

在金融市場充滿不確定性之際，一個規模更大、流動性更差的資管行業，讓人不禁生出了疑問。人們日益擔心預期的加息和量化寬鬆結束將對資產管理公司造成衝擊。主權財富基金從資產管理公司撤回資金的決定——至少與油價下跌有一定關係——更是加劇了擔憂。根據數據提供商eVestment，在最近一個季度，主權財富基金撤回了大約190億美元。

Fund managers are not banks. The fact that they do not, at least in theory, bear credit or liquidity risk ought to make them more resilient in a crisis. The worry, however, lies in the undertakings they have made to investors.

資產管理公司不是銀行。這些公司並不承擔信用或流動性風險——起碼在理論上是這樣——這理應使它們更能經受得住危機。令人擔心的是它們對投資者做出的保證。

Just as competition before the crisis forced banks to “dance” while the music was playing, it has also forced many asset managers to assure clients they can withdraw their investments quickly. While funds retain some liquid assets to meet sudden cash calls, these could be overwhelmed were there a sudden stampede to redeem.

正如危機之前競爭迫使銀行隨音樂“起舞”，競爭也迫使許多資產管理公司向客戶保證，他們可以快速撤回投資。儘管基金保留着一些流動性資產，以滿足突然的贖回要求，但如果驟然發生大規模贖回，那麼這些資產可能根本不夠用。