TPP變臉凸顯希拉里信譽危機 the TPP and the trust problem

During her political career, Hillary Clinton has acquired an unfortunately well-deserved reputation for frequent tactical changes in principle wrapped in rhetorical equivocation.

在其政治生涯中，希拉裏克林頓(Hillary Clinton)不幸贏得了一個她當之無愧的名聲——在含糊其辭的語言包裝下，頻繁進行原則上的戰術調整。

This week’s apostasy by the Democratic frontrunner for president concerned the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the flagship trade treaty involving 12 Asia-Pacific nations on which an outline agreement was sealed this week. Mrs Clinton, while carefully not committing herself to full-blown opposition, said she was not in favour of what she understood the deal to be.

這位民主黨的總統競選領跑者本週的變節與《跨太平洋夥伴關係》(TPP)協定有關。這是一項涉及12個亞太國家的重頭貿易協定，於本週達成了框架協議。儘管希拉里小心翼翼地不使自己處於完全反對的立場，但她表示不贊成她瞭解到的TPP。

This stance is close to absurd. As secretary of state Mrs Clinton was closely involved in negotiations for the very pact she is now against. The episode underlines a broader problem with her candidacy — a lack of trustworthiness that leaves many voters unsure what, if anything, she believes in.

這種立場近乎荒唐。擔任美國國務卿時，希拉里密切參與了她如今反對的TPP的談判。這段插曲凸顯了她的總統候選人資格存在的更廣泛問題，即缺少信譽——這使得很多選民把握不準她的立場（如果她有任何立場的話）。

The basis of Mrs Clinton’s political calculation is not hard to discern. She is being run surprisingly hard by Bernie Sanders, the leftwing senator from Vermont, who shares the antitrade deal views of much of the Democratic party and the labour movement whose support she has worked hard to secure.

希拉里政治盤算的立足點不難分辨。她如今正面臨來自佛蒙特州左翼參議員伯尼儠德斯(Bernie Sanders)的意外強勁的競選挑戰，桑德斯與民主黨內許多人以及勞工運動持同樣的反貿易協定觀點，而希拉里一直在努力爭取勞工運動的支持。

But taking a sceptical position represents naked opportunism on Mrs Clinton’s part. As secretary of state, she referred to the TPP as the “gold standard” of trade deals. When she boosted the state department’s economics function, appointing its first ever chief economist and making grandiose noises about “economic statecraft”, she repeatedly cited the TPP as the foremost instrument by which the US would engage rising Asian economies.

但是，對希拉里來說，採取一個懷疑的立場代表着赤裸裸的機會主義。擔任美國國務卿時，她曾把TPP稱爲貿易協定的“黃金標準”。當她鼓吹美國國務院的經濟職能、任命國務院有史以來首位首席經濟學家、並對“經濟治國”進行浮誇的造勢時，她多次把TPP稱爲美國對抗崛起中的亞洲經濟體的最重要工具。

Mrs Clinton now says that she is unhappy with the lack of enforceable provisions in the draft deal against currency misalignment, and with protection for pharmaceutical patents that may disadvantage patients. But it should have been clear that rules allowing retaliation against alleged currency manipulators, which would almost certainly fall foul of World Trade Organisation law, were a non-starter. And one of the concessions over the past week that clinched the TPP agreement involved the US accepting a shorter period of intellectual property protection for complex biologic drugs than exists in domestic American law.

希拉里如今表示，她對TPP協定草案中缺少應對匯率失調的可執行條款感到不滿，對可能不利於患者的藥品專利保護感到不滿。但是，應該很清楚的是，允許對所謂匯率操縱國實施報復的規則，幾乎肯定會違反世界貿易組織(WTO)的法規，是不可能行得通的。此外，過去一週使得TPP協定得以達成的讓步之一，就涉及美國接受比現有國內法律規定的更短的對複雜生物製劑的知識產權保護期。

This is not the first time Mrs Clinton has spoken from one side of her mouth when in office and from the other side when out of it. When she was running against Mr Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008, she said that she would renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) “to take out the ability of foreign companies to sue us because of what we do to protect our workers”. After joining Mr Obama’s administration in 2009, she reversed course and supported similar “investor-state dispute settlement” provisions in the TPP.

在位時說一套，不在位時說另一套——希拉里這樣做可不是頭一回。在2008年希拉里和奧巴馬(Obama)競爭民主黨總統候選人提名時，她曾表示要重新談判《北美自由貿易協定》(North American Free Trade Agreement)，“以消除外國企業因我們保護工人的舉動而起訴我們的能力”。而在2009年加入奧巴馬政府後，希拉里改變了方針，支持TPP中與之類似的“投資者-國家爭端解決”條款。

The Democrats have a broader problem with the issue of trade agreements. Mrs Clinton’s husband spent a great deal of political capital pushing Nafta through a recalcitrant Congress in 1993, making overblown promises about the number of jobs it would create. When it disappointed, and when average wages continued to stagnate in the US, much of the Democratic party turned against globalisation in general and trade agreements in particular.

在貿易協定這件事上，民主黨存在一個更大的心結。1993年，希拉里的丈夫付出了大量的政治資本讓《北美自由貿易協定》在頑固的國會中得到通過，對該協定將創造的就業數量誇下了海口。當該協定令人失望、美國的平均工資繼續停滯不前時，許多民主黨人變得在總體上反對全球化，尤其是反對貿易協定。

Mrs Clinton will not lift this mood of suspicion and disillusionment by repeatedly switching back and forth between backing trade deals and opposing them. Her carefully-modulated comments this week show that political positioning far trumps principle in her campaign for the nomination. Mrs Clinton is sowing more confusion and equivocation in an area where clarity and honesty are badly needed.

希拉里在支持和反對貿易協定之間反覆轉換立場，是不可能消除這種懷疑和幻滅情緒的。本週她經過仔細斟酌的言論表明，在她的總統候選人提名戰中，政治站隊因素大大壓倒了原則。希拉里正在一個亟需清晰和誠實的領域播下更多的困惑和含糊其辭。