IMF任命新首席經濟學家 Former Obama aide to be IMF chief economist

A former economic adviser to US president Barack Obama and advocate of fiscal integration in the eurozone has been appointed as the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist.

美國總統巴拉克奧巴馬(Barack Obama)的前經濟顧問、歐元區財政一體化的倡導者已被任命爲國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)首席經濟學家。

Maurice Obstfeld will replace Olivier Blanchard in early September after spending a year advising Mr Obama. A former head of the economics department at the University of California, Berkeley, Mr Obstfeld is known for his views on the need for more eurozone integration, the dangers of imbalances in trade and investment, and the importance of strengthening global economic governance.

在擔任奧巴馬經濟顧問一年後，莫里斯攠布斯特費爾德(Maurice Obstfeld)將於今年9月初接替奧利維耶布朗夏爾(Olivier Blanchard)出任IMF首席經濟學家。奧布斯特費爾德曾是美國加州大學伯克利分校(University of California, Berkeley)經濟系的一名負責人。他以有關加深歐元區一體化的必要性、貿易和投資不平衡的危害、以及加強全球經濟治理的重要性等觀點而聞名。

Such convictions are bound to shape the IMF’s thinking as it reassesses its role in the Greek sovereign debt crisis and stands ready to provide assistance to emerging markets as the US Federal Reserve edges closer to raising interest rates. “He is known around the globe for his work on international economics and is considered one of the most influential macroeconomists in the world,” said Christine Lagarde, the fund’s chief.

在IMF重新評估其在希臘主權債務危機中扮演的角色、並準備在美聯儲(Fed)日益臨近加息之際爲新興市場國家提供協助的背景下，奧布斯特費爾德的這些觀點必定將影響IMF的想法。“他以在國際經濟學方面的研究而舉世聞名，被視爲世界上最有影響力的宏觀經濟學家之一，”IMF總裁克里斯蒂娜拉加德(Christine Lagarde)表示。

One of Mr Obstfeld’s most revealing documents is a policy paper he wrote for the European Commission in 2013. In this paper, Mr Obstfeld warned how currency unions such as the eurozone faced a so-called “trilemma”: they cannot pursue cross-border financial integration and maintain stability while protecting national fiscal independence. “This financial/fiscal trilemma lies at the heart of the eurozone crisis that began in 2009, and it provides a useful organisational structure for... reforms needed to preserve financial stability while also preserving a unified euro area financial market,” Mr Obstfeld wrote.

奧布斯特費爾德最引人深思的著述之一是他在2013年爲歐盟委員會(European Commission)撰寫的一篇政策論文。在論文中，他警告稱，歐元區這樣的貨幣聯盟面臨所謂的“三難困境”：它們無法在保護國家財政獨立性的同時追求跨境金融一體化並維持金融穩定。“這種金融/財政三難困境是2009年開始的歐元區危機的核心，這一困境提供了一個有用的組織架構……用來實施必要的改革，以便維持金融穩定、同時維持一個統一的歐元區金融市場，”奧布斯特費爾德寫道。

He argued the eurozone should build a banking union, including a deposit insurance scheme that would encompass a centralised government backstop — a position resisted by Germany. “A complete banking union would ... at least some fiscal capacity,” he wrote. “Even when countries are fiscally healthy, their ex post willingness to contribute resources in case of a big crisis is questionable, so an effective banking union might require some independent taxation capacity.”

他主張，歐元區應該建立一個銀行業聯盟，包括含有集中化政府擔保的存款保險制度——這一立場遭到德國的反對。“一個完整的銀行業聯盟將……至少需要一定的財政能力。”他寫道，“即使國家財政狀況良好，從過去的經驗看，它們在發生重大危機時貢獻資源的意願也是值得懷疑的，因此一個有效的銀行業聯盟可能需要一定的獨立徵稅能力。”

Mr Obstfeld believes the eurozone should be prepared for a greater level of fiscal and political integration than eurozone leaders have allowed so far.

奧布斯特費爾德相信，歐元區應該做好準備，將財政和政治一體化推進到比歐元區領導人迄今允許的程度更深的層次。

“Parallel moves towards political union are an essential complement in ensuring that national electorates accept the legitimacy of decisions made in the common interest,” he wrote.

“爲確保各國選民能夠承認爲共同利益所做出的決策的合法性，與政治聯盟平行的舉措是一種必不可少的補充，”他寫道。