中國放緩危及安倍經濟學 Abenomics under threat from China slowdown

As recently as 10 years ago, an economic slowdown in China would have caused barely a ripple in Japan.

放在10年前，中國經濟放緩幾乎不會在日本激起波瀾。

At that time, most of Japan’s exports to China were components such as liquid crystal displays. They would be assembled into televisions at Japanese-owned factories and then re-exported. What mattered was demand in the final markets for consumer goods, in particular the US.

當時，日本主要對華出口液晶顯示器之類的零配件。它們會在日資工廠被組裝成電視，然後再出口。重要的是消費品最終市場的需求，特別是美國這個市場的需求。

But times have changed. “The importance of final demand in China is increasing for the Japanese economy. It was almost to the US level as of the last data in 2011. It probably matched the US by 2014,” said Naohiko Baba, chief Japan economist at Goldman Sachs.

但如今時代不同了。高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席日本經濟學家馬場直彥(Naohiko Baba)表示：“對於日本經濟而言，中國最終需求的重要性正在提升。在2011年上次數據出爐時，中國需求的重要性幾乎與美國持平。到2014年，中國或許已趕上美國。”

With the Japanese economy already wobbling — the economy contracted by an annualised 1.6 per cent in the second quarter — weakness in China is the latest global shock to undermine the Abenomics stimulus programme on which Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has staked his leadership. China’s slowdown could force the Bank of Japan’s hand on further easing of monetary policy, analysts say. The BoJ, already under pressure from weak consumption at home, would be most likely to act at its October and January meetings, where it makes new economic forecasts.

由於日本經濟已是風雨飄搖（按年率計算，今年第二季度，日本經濟收縮1.6%），中國經濟疲弱正成爲破壞“安倍經濟學”(Abenomics)刺激計劃的最新外部打擊。日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)把自己的領導權押在了該計劃上。分析人士表示，中國經濟放緩可能會迫使日本央行(Bank of Japan)進一步放鬆貨幣政策。已因國內消費疲軟承受壓力的日本央行，在10月和明年1月會議上採取行動的可能性最大。在這些會議上，日本央行將做出新的經濟預測。

For its part, the BoJ insists its massive asset-buying programme remains on course to overcome deflation. Haruhiko Kuroda, BoJ governor, reiterated this in New York on Wednesday, but added that the BoJ would ”make adjustments without hesitation if necessary”.

日本央行堅稱，其大規模資產購買計劃仍然有望戰勝通縮。日本央行行長黑田東彥(Haruhiko Kuroda)週三在紐約重申了這點，但補充稱，日本央行將“在必要時毫不猶豫地做出調整”。

Using a new global input-output database, Mr Baba estimates that whereas in 2000, final demand in China accounted for 0.5 per cent of Japanese output versus 3.5 per cent for the US, both countries now absorb about 2 per cent of Japan’s value-added goods.

馬場直彥利用一個新的全球投入產出數據庫估計，在2000年時，來自中國的最終需求佔日本經濟產出的0.5%，美國最終需求佔3.5%，兩國現在均吸納了日本約2%的附加值商品。

As such, China’s growth rate has become as important to Japan as its exchange rate. A fall of 1 percentage point in China’s domestic demand costs Japan 0.1 per cent of gross domestic product, while the hit from a percentage point fall in the renminbi is only 0.01 per cent. Were it just a matter of the direct effect on Japan’s exports, the damage would be painful but contained, but direct exports are the least of it.

因此，就像人民幣匯率一樣，中國經濟增速也變得對日本很重要。中國國內需求下滑1個百分點，將導致日本國內生產總值(GDP)減少0.1%，而人民幣匯率下滑1個百分點，將導致日本GDP減少0.01%。如果問題只是對日本出口產生直接影響的話，這種破壞將是痛苦的，但很有限，然而直接出口是最不重要的。

Whereas 18 per cent of Japan’s exports go to China, 54 per cent go to Asia as a whole, and a slowdown in China hurts all of the region’s economies. Japanese businesses may postpone investment in new export capacity at home, further hurting demand. japan export

日本有18%的出口流向中國，54%流向整個亞洲，而中國經濟放緩會波及亞洲所有經濟體。日本企業可能推遲對國內新的出口能力的投資，這將進一步影響需求。

The International Monetary Fund tries to model the effects of a Chinese downturn in its Spillover Report. The 2014 edition finds a 1 percentage point shock to emerging market growth leads to a 0.5 percentage point fall in Japanese growth; five times bigger than the effect on the US.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)在其《溢出效應報告》(Spillover Report)中嘗試模擬中國經濟低迷的影響。2014年的報告顯示，在中國經濟低迷衝擊下，新興市場增速每下滑1個百分點，將導致日本增速下滑0.5個百分點；其對日本的影響是對美國的影響的5倍。

In addition, China’s slowdown is having a broader deflationary effect, most obviously through commodity prices. Oil’s drop to about $40 a barrel all but destroys the BoJ’s schedule for getting inflation back to 2 per cent. Its forecasts are predicated on a bounce in prices to $70 or $75 a barrel.

另外，中國經濟放緩正產生更爲廣泛的通縮效應，在大宗商品價格方面表現的最爲明顯。油價降至每桶40美元左右，幾乎會摧毀日本央行令通脹回到2%的計劃。日本央行的預測基於油價反彈至每桶70美元或75美元。

“Although the oil price fall should have a favourable impact on economic activity in the longer term, in the short term it has a downward impact on inflation via the drop in energy prices such as gasoline and electricity,” said Mr Kuroda.

黑田東彥表示：“較長期而言，油價下跌應會對經濟活動產生有利影響，但短期內，通過帶動汽油和電力等能源價格下跌，將對通脹造成下行影響。”

Economists at Citi in Tokyo estimate the drag on inflation from energy prices will reach 1.5 percentage points by October, and stay above 1 percentage point in the middle of 2016, making a dip into headline deflation more likely.

花旗(Citi)駐東京經濟學家估計，能源價格對通脹的拖累將在10月達到1.5個百分點，並將在2016年中保持在1個百分點以上，這將令日本陷入整體通縮的可能性增大。

Mr Kuroda insists this effect is temporary. “Has the trend towards overcoming deflation come to an end?” he said. “This is far from the case.”

黑田東彥堅稱，這種影響將是暫時的。“消除通縮的趨勢是否已結束？”他表示，“事實遠非如此。”

The BoJ’s problem is that its policy relies on convincing companies and consumers that inflation will rise. The longer prices remain stuck at zero amid sluggish demand the harder it is to do.

日本央行的問題在於其政策依賴於讓企業和消費者相信通脹將會上升。在需求低迷之際，通脹維持在零水平的時間越長，日本央行提高通脹的難度就會越大。