香港上市公司佳兆業噩夢尚未結束

The travails of Hong Kong-listed Kaisa, which so recently seemed resolved, have been prolonged once more.

香港上市公司佳兆業(Kaisa)的苦難再一次延長。佳兆業是深圳的一家房地產開發商，就在不久前，它的苦難還似乎得到了解決。

Yesterday, sector peer and anticipated white knight Sunac announced it would ride away from its deal to buy out the majority shareholder in the Shenzhen property developer. All is not lost, however.

昨日，業內同行、預期中的白衣騎士融創中國(Sunac)宣佈，將終止從佳兆業大股東手中收購後者持有全部股份的協議。然而，事情也不是完全糟糕。

Kaisa’s chairman and seller in the cancelled transaction, Kwok Ying Shing, will take back his shares. He returned last month from a — substantially unexplained — 15-week absence. The original deal will be cancelled and Sunac’s prepayment to Mr Kwok returned. Business in Shenzhen, where the company’s projects had been suspended, is back to normal, just as that market is showing signs of a pick-up in property prices and sales volumes. The whole episode seems no worse than a bad dream.

郭英成(Kwok Ying Shing)是佳兆業的董事長，也是被取消交易中的賣方，他將收回自己的股份。郭英成在從公衆視線中消失15個星期（基本上沒有解釋原因）之後，於上月迴歸。當初的協議將被取消，融創預先支付給郭英成的交易款將被退回。之前佳兆業的項目在深圳被叫停。就在市場有跡象表明房價和銷量回升之際，佳兆業在深圳的業務也在恢復正常。整起事件看起來似乎只不過是一場噩夢。

Perhaps, for China-based actors in the drama. For holders of Kaisa’s roughly $2bn in defaulted offshore bonds, the latest twist prolongs the nightmare. The workout deal for the debt is, again, off the table. The notes trade around 60 cents on the dollar; no new deal has yet been announced.

或許，對這幕劇中的中國演員來說，噩夢已經結束，但對持有佳兆業已違約的約20億美元離岸債券的債權人來說，最新的風波延長了這場噩夢。債務重組協議再次夭折。佳兆業債券目前的交易價格大約是面值的60%，而且迄今仍未宣佈任何新的協議。

The company’s equity may look like a bargain as the property sector starts to turn. Suspended for the sixth time in as many months, the shares have missed out as peers have rallied hard. Kaisa trades at 0.35 times historical book value; sector leaders trade on multiples as high as 2.1. So interest has been trickling down to smaller companies, few of which now look as cheap as Kaisa. The return of a majority shareholder whose interest ostensibly lies in rebuilding the company’s fortunes could be taken positively.

隨着房地產行業開始回暖，現在佳兆業的股價可能顯得很便宜。佳兆業的股票在6個月裏第6次停牌，錯過了房地產股的上漲行情。佳兆業的歷史市淨率是0.35倍，而房地產業領軍者的市淨率高達2.1倍。因此現在人們開始關注較小規模的房地產公司，而它們很少像佳兆業這麼便宜。我們可以積極看待主要股東的迴歸，他的興趣顯然在於重建公司的財富。

But do not be fooled. Outside observers who can only speculate as to why the debacle began — and why the Sunac deal collapsed — can have no means of knowing if the company’s troubles are over. Mr Kwok was in the hot seat when the problems first hit. His return may not lead to salvation.

但別被愚弄了。外部觀察人士沒有辦法知道佳兆業的麻煩是否結束，他們只能猜測該公司爲何出了問題，以及爲何融創交易泡湯。在最初出現問題的時候，郭英成就處境堪憂。他的迴歸可能解決不了什麼問題。