拉丁美洲的基建投資需要中國

To many South American leaders, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s visit this week couldn’t come at a better time, and from a better country. China has been busy with Latin America, surpassing the United States as South America’s leading export destination outside of the region, according to the China-Latin America Economic Bulletin.

對許多南美國家領導人來說，本週來訪的中國總理李克強選擇了一個絕佳的時機，並且來自一個再好不過的國家。根據《中國-拉美經濟通報》(China-Latin America Economic Bulletin)，中國一直與拉美往來密切，已超過美國成爲南美在本地區之外的最大出口目的國。

What is more, the ink is barely dry on big loan agreements to Venezuela and Ecuador, or a major China-Latin America cooperation plan signed in January that pledges to increase trade by $500bn and investment by $250bn and to cooperate on science and technology, trade, and environmental protection.

此外，中國還剛剛與委內瑞拉和厄瓜多爾簽署了數額龐大的貸款協議，並在今年1月簽署了一項意義重大的中國-拉美合作計劃，承諾將雙邊貿易額提高5000億美元，將投資提高2500億美元，並在科技、貿易和環境保護方面展開合作。

Now it’s the turn of Brazil, Peru, Chile, and Colombia, all destinations on Li’s itinerary. The Chinese are expected start implementing the cooperation plan with new agreements on science, trade, and currency swaps.

現在輪到了巴西、祕魯、智利和哥倫比亞，這四國是此次李克強出訪的目的地。外界預期中國將開始落實上述合作計劃，並簽署科技、貿易和貨幣互換方面的新協議。

Expectations of considerable Chinese investments seem justified by Beijing’s track record of providing more than the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank combined in loans for Latin American governments, according to the China-Latin America Finance database. There will likely be more of the same for infrastructure projects such as the Twin Ocean Railroad from Peru to Brazil.

中國-拉美金融數據庫(China-Latin America Finance database)的數據顯示，中國爲拉美各國政府提供的貸款已經超過了世界銀行(World Bank)和美洲開發銀行(Inter-American Development Bank)的總和，據此來看，預期中國將進行大舉投資是合理的。或許還會出現更多像兩洋鐵路（從祕魯到巴西）這樣的基礎設施建設項目。

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Latin American growth is expected to dip below one per cent this year, after a disappointing 2014 of 1.4 per cent. That stands in stark contrast to the region’s “China Boom” from 2003 to 2013 when the region grew over 3 per cent per year thanks in large part to Chinese demand for Latin America’s commodities and the subsequent uptick in prices that came along with scarcity and speculation.

根據IMF，2014年拉美地區經濟僅增長1.4%，預計今年將增長不到1%。與之形成鮮明對比的是，在2003年到2013年興起主要由中國需求驅動的大宗商品熱潮（China Boom，下文簡稱：中國熱潮）期間，拉美地區的經濟年增長率超過3%，主要歸功於中國對拉美大宗商品的需求，以及大宗商品稀缺性和投機活動帶來的價格上揚。

Those days are gone. China’s demand has slowed as it rebalances its economy, dampening commodity prices worldwide. With growth sliding, Latin Americans are realising that their governments did not invest much of the proceeds from the China boom. Gross fixed capital formation in the region was a paltry 19.6 per cent, far short of the 25 per cent recommended by the Growth Commission and other bodies for nations needing to develop their economies. Ecuador, Colombia, and Peru were above average though still nowhere near 25 per cent, while in Argentina, Brazil, and Venezuela the investment rates were anemic.

那樣的日子已經過去。隨着中國對經濟進行再平衡，中國的需求出現放緩，這壓低了全球的大宗商品價格。增長率的下滑讓拉美人意識到政府並未將從“中國熱潮”中獲得的大部分收入用於投資。固定資本形成總額佔該地區GDP的比例僅爲19.6%，遠低於增長與發展委員會(Commission on Growth and Development)和其他機構認爲的國家發展經濟所需的25%水平。厄瓜多爾、哥倫比亞和祕魯的這一比例高於平均水平，但離25%還差得遠，而阿根廷、巴西和委內瑞拉的投資率則非常低。

According to research by the IMF, although the China-led commodity boom was among the longest and most lucrative in the region’s history, most Latin American countries saved less of these windfalls than they have in past booms. This year’s annual report from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean adds that Latin American governments also failed to bring in new tax revenue in proportion to the windfalls as well.

根據IMF的研究，儘管此次“中國熱潮”是該地區歷來持續時間最長、獲利最多的一次大宗商品熱潮，但大多數拉美國家在這次熱潮中存下的資金沒有它們在過去幾次熱潮中多。聯合國拉丁美洲及加勒比經濟委員會(ECLAC)今年的年度報告還提出，拉美各國政府的新增稅收收入與此次熱潮也不成比例。

It is thus no surprise that the region did little to invest into export competitiveness in sectors other than commodities. Over 78 per cent of Latin American manufacturing exports have lost global market share to their counterparts since 2003.

因此，這也難怪拉美地區幾乎沒有爲提高大宗商品以外行業的出口競爭力進行投資。2003年以來，拉美78%以上的製造業出口商品在全球市場中所佔份額減少了。

The China boom also came at significant social and environmental cost that was not properly mitigated. A new study, China in Latin America: Lessons for South-South Cooperation and Sustainable Development, shows how primary commodity exploitation – such as petroleum, copper, iron ore, tin, soybeans and the like – are endemic to environmental degradation.

此外，中國熱潮讓拉美付出了巨大的社會和環境代價，這些代價並未有效減輕。一項新研究報告《中國在拉美：對南南合作和可持續發展的教訓》(China in Latin America: Lessons for South-South Cooperation and Sustainable Development)表明，初級大宗商品開採（例如石油、銅、鐵礦石、錫、大豆等等）造成了環境退化。

The recent China-boom thus put increased pressure on the region’s waterways, forests, and other areas that accentuated threats to human health, biodiversity, global climate change, and local livelihoods. According to the report Latin American exports to China – the fastest growing export destination over the past decade – were close to twice as greenhouse gas intensive and ten times as water intensive than overall economic activity in the region.

因此，最近這輪中國熱潮加大了該地區水路、森林以及其他資源的壓力，突顯出對人類健康、生物多樣性、全球氣候變化以及當地民生的威脅。根據這份報告，與該地區的整體經濟活動相比，拉美對華出口的相關經濟活動（過去10年，中國是拉美增長最快的出口目的地）排放的溫室氣體是整體水平的近兩倍，耗費的水資源是整體水平的10倍。

So currency swaps and trade talks, science and technology agreements, and finance for infrastructure will be very welcome. Indeed, Latin America faces an annualinfrastructure gap of 6.2 per cent of GDP and the IMF says that infrastructure investment has the highest multiplier impact on the rest of the economy.

因此，貨幣互換和貿易談判、科學技術協議以及基礎設施融資將非常受歡迎。實際上，拉美每年在基礎設施方面的資金缺口占該地區GDP的6.2%，而且IMF表示，基礎設施投資給其他經濟領域帶來的乘數效應最大。

China and Latin America would also do well to ensure that equal attention go to risks associated with their economic relationship. That means investing the proceeds of the relationship in competitiveness, as well as in social and environmental protections.

中國和拉美還應努力確保將同樣的注意力放在與雙方經濟關係相關的風險方面。這意味着將雙方經濟關係所帶來的收益投資於競爭力提升以及社會和環境保護方面。

If Latin Americans don’t manage their natural resources correctly, however, their very source of comparative advantage will dwindle, translating into lost growth and elections. If China doesn’t also mitigate the negative impacts of its trade and investment in the region, it will lose its positive image in a region they are making long term bets on–and lose a lot of money as well.

然而，如果拉美沒有正確管理其自然資源，它們獲得相對優勢的來源將減弱，進而會導致經濟停滯以及選舉失敗。如果中國沒有緩和其在該地區貿易和投資的負面影響，中國將喪失在這個他們正長期押注的地區的正面形象，同時也將損失大量資金。

Kevin P. Gallagher is a professor of global development policy at Boston University’s Pardee School of Global Studies where he co-directs the Global Economic Governance Initiative. His forthcoming book is The China Triangle: Latin America’s China Boom and the Fate of the Washington Consensus.

凱文•P•加拉格爾(Kevin agher)是波士頓大學帕迪全球研究學院(Pardee School of Global Studies)全球發展政策教授，該院“全球經濟治理計劃”(Global Economic Governance Initiative)的負責人之一。他即將出版的著作爲《中國三角：拉美的中國熱潮以及華盛頓共識的命運》(The China Triangle: Latin America’s China Boom and the Fate of the Washington Consensus)。