中國爲規避風險在拉美分散投資

China may be nominally communist but concerns over its financial exposure to socialist-leaning South American partners such as Venezuela and Argentina are spurring a tilt towards their more liberal rivals in the region.

名義上，中國可能是共產主義國家。然而，由於擔心委內瑞拉及阿根廷等社會主義傾向的南美合作伙伴的財務風險，中國政府正倒向這些國家在拉美地區更自由化的對手。

Premier Li Keqiang will endorse Chinese rail investment during a visit this month to Colombia, Peru, Chile and Brazil, promoting a Chinese-built, cross-Andes rail link that would allow Brazilian ore and soya to be shipped from Pacific ports in Peru to Asia, bypassing the Panama Canal.

中國國家總理李克強將於本月訪問哥倫比亞、祕魯、智利和巴西。在這次訪問中，李克強將爲中國的鐵路投資背書，推銷由中國修建的橫跨安第斯山脈的鐵路線。這條鐵路線一旦修成，巴西的鐵礦石和黃豆將可以通過祕魯在太平洋的口岸運往亞洲，而不必經過巴拿馬運河(Panama Canal)。

Increased investment in Peru — home to one of the largest ethnic Chinese populations in Latin America — and elsewhere allows China to diversify its exposure away from the leftist governments it has cultivated over the past decade. Venezuela has borrowed more than $50bn from China, mostly from the China Development Bank, but a steep drop in crude prices has added to stress on its already ailing economy.

祕魯是拉美華人最多的國家之一，對祕魯及其他國家的投資增加，令中國可以將其對拉美左翼政府的投資分流出來。過去十年，中國一直在開展對這些左翼政府的投資。目前，委內瑞拉已從中國借得逾500億美元資金，這些資金主要來自中國開發銀行(China Development Bank)。然而，油價暴跌已令問題纏身的委內瑞拉經濟雪上加霜。

China is growing increasingly worried about the model of lending secured against commodities, according to Li Renfang, Latin American analyst at Southwest University of Science and Technology in Sichuan province. “I think it’s safer for China to lend the money to centre-right governments,” he says.

根據四川省西南科技大學(Southwest University of Science and Technology)拉丁美洲研究員李仁方的說法，中國對於以大宗商品做抵押的貸款模式日益擔憂。他說：“我認爲，對於中國來說，向立場中間偏右的政府發放貸款更安全些。”

International rail contracts are a political priority for Beijing, which sees exports as a solution to China’s burdensome overcapacity in steel, rail, construction and engineering services as the economy slows. Chinese-built rail projects have been proposed for Thailand, Indonesia and central Asia.

對於中國政府來說，在國際市場上籤訂鐵路修建合同是政治上的首要任務。由於中國經濟放緩，中國國內的鋼鐵、鐵路、建築及工程服務等領域出現了嚴重的產能過剩。爲此，中國政府把出口視爲應對這一局面的解決方案。目前，中國已提出了爲泰國、印尼及中亞等地區修建鐵路的工程項目。

A rail programme fits Beijing’s preference for government-to-government infrastructure deals that can be allocated to state-owned companies, which remain wary of complex Latin American tax and labour laws. China engineered a merger in its two state-owned rail companies late last year to prevent them from undercutting each other in international tenders.

鐵路項目滿足了中國政府對政府間基建協議的偏好，這種政府間基建項目卻可以分配給這些國有企業，但中國的國有企業對拉美複雜的稅收及勞務法律依然心存警惕。去年底，中國曾撮合兩大國有鐵路企業合併，以阻止它們在國際招標活動中彼此削弱。

The concept of a trans-Andes rail link is ambitious, with cost estimates ranging from $4.5bn to $10bn for a northern link through the Amazon. That route is almost certain to face opposition from environmental and indigenous rights groups as it would cross primary forests. A longer alternative through Peru’s southern deserts would have to include Bolivia but would justify large port investments in the south of Peru.

跨安第斯山鐵路線的理念十分有野心。對於橫穿亞馬遜河的北方鐵路線來說，其成本估計在45億美元到100億美元之間。由於會穿過原始森林，這一路線幾乎肯定會遭遇環保及土著權益保護團體的反對。另一條較長的鐵路線則會穿過祕魯南部的沙漠，這一鐵路線必須把玻利維亞包括在內，它將爲在祕魯南部投資修建大型港口創造理由。

The Andean rail plan could tie into South America’s vision of developing more ties with Asia through the Pacific Alliance, a trade pact between Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. The Chinese gripe that the plan for freer movement of goods involves few specifics.

安第斯山鐵路計劃或許會對南美洲通過太平洋聯盟(Pacific Alliance)與亞洲建立更多合作關係的構想產生衝擊。所謂太平洋聯盟，是智利、哥倫比亞、墨西哥和祕魯之間簽訂的貿易協定。中國方面抱怨說，這一讓商品自由流動的計劃幾乎沒什麼具體細節。

“We’ve had trade but investment was more lacking,” says Chen Taotao of the Center for China-Latin America Management Studies at Tsinghua University, noting Chinese appetite for Brazil’s resources. “Chinese companies are increasingly interested so it makes sense to build leadership ties.”

清華大學(Tsinghua University)中國-拉丁美洲管理研究中心(Center for China-Latin America Management Studies)的陳濤濤表示：“我們之間雖有貿易聯繫，投資活動卻更爲缺乏一些。中國企業對此興趣日益提高。因此，雙方領導人加強聯繫很有意義。”

While Chile and Brazil are some of China’s biggest suppliers of raw materials, Peru is rapidly becoming a focus for Chinese investment in the region.

儘管智利和巴西是中國部分原材料的最大供應國，祕魯卻在迅速成爲中國對拉美投資的一個重點。

With $19bn in the pipeline, Chinese investment now accounts for about a third of new mining projects in Peru, including the Toromocho and Las Bambas copper mines. In late 2014, state-owned oil company CNPC bought the Peruvian business of Brazilian oil group Petrobras for $2.6bn.

如今，包括特羅莫克(Toromocho)銅礦和拉斯邦巴斯(Las Bambas)銅礦在內，祕魯新建礦產項目的三分之一由中國投資，還有190億美元的投資正在醞釀之中。2014年底，中國國有石油公司中國石油天然氣集團公司(CNPC,簡稱中石油)曾斥資26億美元，買下巴西石油集團巴西國家石油公司(Petrobras)的祕魯業務部門。

Chinese investment has, however, proved elusive in some of Peru’s neighbours.

然而，事實證明中國在祕魯部分鄰國的投資卻前景難料。

While a senior Colombian official says the two countries were working on “two very ambitious transport infrastructure projects”, other plans have yet to come to fruition. In 2011 Colombia’s president said Chinese investors were interested in a rail and port connection that would link its Pacific and Atlantic coasts. Nothing has materialised.

儘管哥倫比亞一名高官表示，兩國正圍繞“兩個非常大膽的交通運輸基建項目”開展合作，其他項目卻仍未開花結果。2011年，哥倫比亞總統曾表示，中國投資者對一個會把該國太平洋及大西洋海岸連接起來的鐵路及港口通道很感興趣。如今，這一項目卻絲毫未得到落實。

Meanwhile, Colombian diplomats say Chinese state-owned groups have shied away from directly competing in large infrastructure tenders. In Nicaragua, a Chinese telecoms entrepreneur has broken ground on a $50bn channel to rival the Panama Canal, but the extent to which the project is backed by Beijing remains unclear.

同時，哥倫比亞外交官表示，中國國有企業已避開了對大型基建項目招標競爭的直接參與。在尼加拉瓜，一位中國電信企業家已開工修建一條耗資500億美元的運河，與巴拿馬運河開展競爭。然而，中國政府對該項目的支持力度依然難以確認。

Chinese companies have successfully invested in Brazilian energy — oil groups hold minority shares in Brazilian oil blocks and State Grid has significant power investments. But Chinese proposals for steel mills and car plants in Brazil have never got off the ground, in spite of years of discussion. Their attempts to invest in Brazilian agriculture have borne little fruit.

中國企業已對巴西能源產業成功開展了投資——中國石油企業在巴西石油產業擁有少數股份，而中國國家電網(State Grid)則在電力方面投入了大量資金。不過，儘管經過多年磋商，中國在巴西修建鍊鋼廠和汽車製造廠的方案卻從未起步。此外，中國還試圖對巴西農業開展投資，也沒有什麼成果。

In Chile, a 2005 option for China’s state-owned trading group Minmetals to take a stake in the Gaby mine expired in 2008, although Minmetals continues to buy Chilean copper under a long-term agreement. Chinese investments in the region are also subject to greater scrutiny.

在智利，中國國有交易集團五礦集團(Minmetals)曾於2005年獲得了優先收購加維(Gaby)銅礦股份的選擇權，這一期權卻已於2008年過期。不過，五礦集團繼續依照一份長期協議，買入智利出產的銅。目前，中國對拉美地區的投資也受到更嚴格的審查。

Beijing is still smarting from Mexico’s revocation of a $3.75bn high-speed rail contract after it emerged that the Mexican president’s family mansion had been built and paid for by a Mexican partner in the Chinese-backed consortium.

此前，墨西哥曾撤銷一份耗資37.5億美元的高鐵合同，此舉至今仍令北京方面十分痛心。該合同被撤銷，是由於之前有爆料稱，墨西哥總統家人所住豪宅，是由中方投資的財團中一家墨西哥合作方修建和付款的。

Additional reporting by Lucien Chauvin in Lima, Owen Guo in Beijing, Jude Webber in Mexico City and Joe Leahy in São Paulo

呂西安•紹文(Lucien Chauvin)利馬、郭晨北京、裘德•韋伯(Jude Webber)墨西哥城以及李若瑟(Joe Leahy)聖保羅補充報道