人民幣叩動儲備貨幣大門

The internationalisation of China’s renminbi faces its stiffest test yet as the International Monetary Fund debates whether to endorse the “redback” as a reserve currency alongside the dollar, euro, yen and sterling.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)正在就是否接納中國的人民幣，將其作爲美元、歐元、日元和英鎊之外的儲備貨幣開展辯論。這一爭論令這種“紅色底色”貨幣的國際化進程面臨有史以來的最嚴峻考驗。

Becoming a constituent in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket would be a big step forward for the currency, which remains tightly controlled by Beijing. Economist Louis Gave of GaveKal Dragonomics likens the move to Japan’s currency liberalisation in the 1980s and the subsequent run-up in yen assets.

對於依然受到中國政府嚴格控制的人民幣來說，加入IMF特別提款權(Special Drawing Rights)貨幣籃子將是一大進展。龍洲經訊(Gavekal Dragonomics)經濟學家路易斯•加夫(Louis Gave)把這一事件與上世紀80年代日本貨幣匯率的自由化及日元資產隨後的上漲相比擬。

“Very quickly, global equity and bond investors were chasing their own tails, pushing up the value of the yen together with Japanese equity and bond valuations to regular new highs.” (From which, of course, they subsequently retreated as the bubble imploded.)

“在極短時間內，全球股市和債券投資者就進入了自我推升的循環之中，將日元匯率連同日本股票及債券的價格，推升至新的一貫性的高點。”（當然，隨着泡沫的破裂，它們後來已從這一高點回落。）

However, the rewards for Beijing would be more than simply financial: acquiring SDR rights would be a powerful boost to its geopolitical ambitions.

不過，對於中國政府來說，由此帶來的回報或許不僅僅在金融方面：獲得特別提款權，可能會大大提升中國政府的地緣政治野心。

“For China, SDR basket inclusion is symbolic to global recognition of its rise in status,” Paul Mackel, head of Asia forex research at HSBC, wrote in a recent report. “The very stringent requirements for currency inclusion in the SDR serve as a quality assurance to global users that the currency in question is indeed very liquid and stable as a store of value.”

匯豐銀行(HSBC)亞洲外匯研究部門主管保羅•梅克爾(Paul Mackel)最近在一份報告中寫道：“對中國來說，人民幣加入特別提款權貨幣籃子，是中國地位獲得全球認可的一種象徵。貨幣納入特別提款權需要滿足非常嚴格的要求。這種要求對全球用戶來說是一種品質上的保證，表示他們關心的貨幣作爲價值儲存手段確實具備非常好的流動性和穩定性。”

That will feed into the IMF’s deliberations. “The crux of the matter is that this is ultimately going to be decided on political rather than economic merits,” says Eswar Prasad, economics professor at Cornell University and former China country director for the IMF.

這一事實令IMF在這個問題上愈發謹慎。曾任IMF中國事務主管的康奈爾大學(Cornell University)經濟學教授埃斯瓦爾•普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)表示：“這件事的癥結在於，此事最終將由政治決定，而不是由經濟收益決定。”

China’s bid for more influence in the international monetary system began at the peak of the global financial crisis in March 2009, when central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan published a paper in English titled “Reform the international monetary system”.

中國擴大在國際貨幣系統影響力的企圖，始於2009年3月全球金融危機的頂峯時期。當時，中國央行(PBoC)行長周小川曾發表一篇論文，題目是《關於改革國際貨幣體系的思考》(Reform the international monetary system)。

Mr Zhou argued that the global financial crisis had exposed the vulnerabilities of over-reliance on the dollar, and proposed beefing up the SDR so it could serve as “an international reserve currency that is disconnected from individual nations”.

周小川聲稱全球金融危機暴露了過度依賴美元的脆弱性，並提議加強特別提款權機制，確保它能成爲“一種與主權國家脫鉤、並能保持幣值長期穩定的國際儲備貨幣”。

In March this year Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told IMF managing director Christine Lagarde that China intended to accelerate reforms needed to meet the criteria for SDR inclusion.

今年3月，中國總理李克強曾向IMF總裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)表示，中國打算加快實施必要的改革，以便讓人民幣能夠滿足被特別提款權接納的評價標準。

The IMF board will vote in November or December. Ahead of that, a staff review this month will assess the renminbi’s suitability based on four criteria.

今年11月或12月，IMF董事會將開展投票。在那之前，IMF將於本月發佈一份員工評估，基於四大標準評估人民幣是否適合納入特別提款權。

The first three — transaction volume in foreign exchange spot markets; transaction volume in forex derivatives markets; and use of the currency by central banks as reserves — are partly subjective, says Mr Prasad. So long as the renminbi is widely used, the IMF could determine that the criteria have been met, even if the renminbi ranks even lower than other non-SDR currencies on one or more measure.

前三項標準是外匯現貨市場的成交量、外匯衍生品市場的成交量以及把人民幣用作儲備貨幣的央行數。普拉薩德表示，這三項標準在一定程度上是客觀的。只要人民幣得到廣泛應用，即使人民幣在其他一個或幾個方面排名低於其他非特別提款權貨幣，IMF也會判定上述標準已經滿足。

The fourth hurdle, which essentially requires a yes or no decision on whether renminbi interest rates are market-based, will be much harder to clear.

至於第四項標準，實質上是要求明確判定人民幣利率是否由市場決定。這一標準的通過難度要大得多。

Mr Zhou said in March that China may eliminate the administrative cap on bank deposit rates — the last interest rate in China subject to government control — by the end of this year. That might provide the opening IMF board members need to admit China into the SDR club.

今年3月，周小川曾表示，中國可能會在年底以前，廢除銀行存款利率的行政上限——這是中國受到政府控制的最後一種利率。此舉或許會爲IMF董事會批准中國加入特別提款權俱樂部打開大門。

But the US is likely to push back by urging the IMF to interpret its rules strictly and arguing for the SDR to be used as an incentive to press for greater financial liberalisation.

不過，美國很可能會抵制這一結果。他們可能會敦促IMF更嚴格地解釋其相關規定，並可能辯稱特別提款權應該被用作一種迫使中國提高金融自由化程度的激勵手段。

Mr Zhou’s statement leaves ample flexibility to delay freeing up deposit rates if economic conditions change — a scenario that looks increasingly plausible.

周小川的聲明留下了很大的發揮餘地，如果經濟狀況發生改變，中國或許會推遲放開存款利率。目前看來，這種情況發生的可能性越來越大。

China has cut benchmark interest rates twice since November in a bid to reduce financing costs for businesses amid a slowing economy. Removing the deposit-rate cap would probably have the opposite effect, pushing rates higher as banks compete for funds.

自去年11月以來，中國已兩次下調基準利率，試圖在經濟放緩之際降低企業的融資成本。廢除存款利率上限可能會起到反作用，令銀行在攬儲過程中推高利率。

“We believe that the RMB’s inclusion in the SDR (and indeed RMB internationalisation itself) is being used mainly as a goalpost, to catalyse domestic financial sector reforms, especially interest rate liberalisation and China’s capital account opening,” Tao Wang, UBS China economist, wrote recently.

最近，瑞銀(UBS)中國問題經濟學家汪濤曾寫道：“我們認爲，特別提款權對人民幣的接納問題主要是用來設定一個努力的方向，以便加快國內的金融改革，特別是在利率自由化和放開中國資本賬戶方面的改革。”

The fund has already signalled its approval of recent reforms to loosen the government’s tight grip on the currency. Markus Rodlauer, deputy director of the IMF’s Asia-Pacific department, said during Ms Lagarde’s visit that the renminbi exchange rate was “moving toward equilibrium”, a shift in tone from the fund’s longstanding assessment that the exchange rate is “undervalued”.

目前，IMF已發出信號，表達對中國政府近期實施多項改革、放鬆對貨幣嚴格管控的讚賞。在拉加德訪華期間，IMF亞太部門副主任馬庫斯•羅德勞爾(Markus Rodlauer)曾表示人民幣匯率正“趨近平衡點”。比起IMF長期以來人民幣匯率“被低估”的評價，上述說法在口風上出現了轉變。

IMF rules require a review of the SDR basket at least every five years but more frequent reviews are permitted. That leaves open the possibility of a compromise in which the IMF decides the renminbi is close to meeting the relevant criteria but still falls short, and schedules another review sooner than 2020.

按照IMF的規定，至少每五年要評估一次特別提款權的貨幣籃子，不過評估的頻率可以高於五年一次。這爲IMF以一種妥協方式處理這個問題創造了可能性。也就是說，IMF可能會認定人民幣接近達標但仍有欠缺，並安排在2020年以前再次評估人民幣。

However, such a move would not be without risk.

但是，這麼做也不是毫無風險。

“It will be seen as a slap in Beijing’s face if the IMF chooses to punt on this issue now,” says Mr Prasad. “That would really poison the relationship between the IMF and China.”

普拉薩德表示：“目前，如果IMF選擇迴避這個問題，會被視爲對中國政府的打臉。這或許會大大傷害IMF與中國之間的關係。”