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人民幣成爲全球儲備貨幣的日期延後

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人民幣成爲全球儲備貨幣的日期延後

The International Monetary Fund has decided that China’s currency will not be included in a basket of reserve currencies for at least a year, delaying a move some had expected to take place as soon as January even as it took pains to stress the decision was largely procedural.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)已決定,至少在一年內,人民幣不會被納入其儲備貨幣籃子,儘管它竭力強調這一決定在很大程度上是出於程序上的原因。有些人曾預期IMF最早在明年1月就會把人民幣納入儲備貨幣籃子,IMF的上述決定讓這一天的到來向後推遲了。

The IMF is due to decide by the end of the year whether to include the renminbi in its so-called special drawing rights, the elite group of currencies it uses to determine the value of its own de facto currency.

IMF定於在今年底決定是否將人民幣納入所謂的特別提款權(SDR)貨幣籃子。這個籃子由多種最重要的貨幣組成,IMF用它來確定其事實上的貨幣的價值。

The decision depends on the IMF determining just how “freely usable” the tightly controlled Chinese currency has become. The push for inclusion has been driving a series of reforms by Beijing, which is keen to see the renminbi labelled a reserve currency alongside the dollar, euro, yen and sterling.

該決定的結果,依賴於IMF對人民幣“可自由使用”程度的認定。目前,人民幣仍是一種受到嚴格管控的貨幣,而中國政府急於看到人民幣貼上“儲備貨幣”的標籤(就像美元、歐元、日元及英鎊那樣)。爲了推動將人民幣納入這個籃子,中國政府已開展了一系列改革。

The bid for SDR inclusion is also among the factors cited by observers as being behind last week’s move by the People’s Bank of China to allow a greater role for markets in setting the daily trading band for the renminbi, which prompted the two biggest daily swings in the currency since the 1990s.

此外,觀察人士指出,上週中國央行允許市場在設定人民幣匯率的過程中發揮更大作用,背後的動機之一也是要推動將人民幣納入SDR貨幣籃子。中國央行上週的舉措導致人民幣匯率出現了自上世紀90年代以來的兩個最大單日跌幅。

But the IMF said on Wednesday its board had decided that if it opts later this year to include the renminbi in the SDR basket, the move will not take formal effect until September 2016.

但IMF卻在週三表示,其執行董事會已經決定,即便該機構今年晚些時候選擇將人民幣納入SDR貨幣籃子,也要到2016年9月纔會生效。

This potentially gives China more time to enact reforms, although most if not all would have to be in place before the IMF board makes its decision, which is expected in November.

這可能會讓中國有更多時間來實施改革,儘管多數(如果不是全部)改革舉措在IMF執行董事會做出納入不納入的決定前就得到位。這一決定預計會在今年11月做出。

The extended timeframe also signals the monumental complexity of adding a currency to the IMF’s reserve basket, a manoeuvre last carried out at the birth of the euro in 1999.

這一時間表的延長也表明,IMF將一種貨幣納入其儲備貨幣籃子的過程極爲複雜。IMF上次展開類似調整,是在1999年歐元誕生的時候。

The decision, the IMF said, was based on a staff recommendation made in a report last month and in response to requests from “SDR users” — other member countries that receive IMF loans — for a “sufficient lead time to adjust” to the new currency basket.

IMF表示,做出這一決定,一方面是基於IMF工作人員在上月一份報告裏提出的建議,一方面是爲了迴應“SDR用戶”(指接受IMF貸款的其他成員國)的要求。這些SDR用戶要求“留出足夠的時間來適應”新貨幣籃子。

The IMF said the decision had in effect been taken on August 11, during the board’s annual summer break, because the time for objections had lapsed. It had not been announced before Wednesday because IMF rules give staff seven days to prepare announcements, the IMF said.

最重要的是,IMF表示:“批准延長現貨幣籃子的使用期,無論從哪方面來說,都不構成對(SDR評估)結果的預判。預計執行董事會將在今年晚些時候就評估展開正式討論。”