垃圾債券 又一場金融危機?

Junk bonds have been investors' snack of choice over the past five years. They may soon regret that decision.

垃圾債券是過去五年裏投資者的快餐。他們可能很快就會後悔自己的決定。

Billionaire Jeffrey Gundlach believes the next crisis will be in junk bonds. His voice is worth listening to. Not only is Gundlach the so-called king of the bond markets, but the CEO of DoubleLine Capital correctly predicted the subprime crisis that sparked the Great Recession last decade.

億萬富翁傑弗裏·岡拉克相信，下一場危機會在垃圾債券市場爆發。他說的話是可信的。不僅僅因爲岡拉克是債券市場之王，還因爲這位DoubleLine Capital的CEO曾經準確的預測出了造成過去十年大衰退的次貸危機。

Junk bonds, also known as high-yield debt, have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the Federal Rese rve's unprecedented moves since the financial crisis. The central bank kept interest rates near zero, for cing investors who need to earn a regular income to take a gamble on junk bonds because the interest rat s on U.S. government bonds are so low right now.

垃圾債券,又被稱作高收益債券,由金融危機後美聯儲史無前例的量化寬鬆政策的最大受益人們持有。美國央行長期保持利率接近於0,國債的利息太低，迫使需要穩定收益投資者孤注一擲的進入垃圾債券市場。

"They've been searching for yield and throwing caution to the wind," Gundlach said over the weekend duri ng an appearance on Wall Street Week, a long-running weekly financial TV show that was recently resurrec ed.

岡拉克週末在華爾街週刊（一個最近重登銀幕的長期週刊金融電視節目）上說，“他們不斷的尋求收益，並把謹慎拋之腦後。”

The problem: The junk bond market will soon face a double whammy: higher interest rates and a "wall" of maturities. The Fed is expected to begin raising rates later this year or early next. That's not very long before investors will start focusing on the combined $600 billion of junk bonds set to mature in 2018 and 2019.

問題是：垃圾債券市場將很快面臨雙重打擊：高利率和到期"難"。二月份，人們預測利率會在年末或來年初提高。這離投資者們的6000億美元垃圾債券集中到期的2018年和2019年已經不遠了。

Gundlach warns this could lead to a run on bond funds. All it would take is a small spark to cause investors to worry and run for the exits as they fear higher interest rates will make it harder for companies to "roll over," or refinance, that debt.

岡拉克警告，這會導致一場垃圾債券的崩潰。因爲害怕過高利率會讓公司難以"延期付款"和再融資，任何風吹草動都會導致投資者驚慌失措，爭先恐後拋售債券。

Investors want to get paid. Any sign of higher defaults will be alarming.

投資者們想獲得收益。任何高違約的跡象都是一個警報。

"The ultimate consequence of all of these extreme policies have yet to be felt -- but will be felt," he said.

他說，"這些極端政策的最終後果還沒有發生——但是，一定會發生。"

Junk bonds are newbies: No one knows exactly how the junk bond market will react to rising interest rates because it's never really experienced them before. The market didn't start to gain popularity until the mid-1980 when rates were far higher.

垃圾債券是個新事物：沒人確切知道美聯儲提高利率會對垃圾債券市場產生什麼反應，因爲它在以前從未發生過。這個市場直到1980年中葉利率超高時纔開始被人熱捧。

"The entire life of the junk bond market has been during secularly declining interest rates. It's like a summer insect. You can't talk about ice with a summer insect," Gundlach said.

"垃圾債券市場的整個生命期都處在利率持續下降的階段。"岡拉克說，這就像夏天的昆蟲。你無法知道夏天的昆蟲在冰天雪地中是什麼樣子。

Gundlach isn't the only one sounding the alarm about the bond markets.

岡拉克並不是唯一一個發現垃圾債券危險的人。

Earlier this month JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon joined a slew of other smart people on Wall Street worried about liquidity in the fixed income market due to new regulations installed after the last crisis. During a panic there may not be enough bonds available to go around, Dimon argued.

本月上旬,在金融危機後新的規則出臺後，摩根大通公司(JPM ) CEO傑米戴蒙傑米•戴蒙加入了一大堆其他華爾街聰明的人，由於上次金融危機之後，新規定開始實施，他們擔心固定收入市場的流動性。“在一片恐慌可能沒有足夠的債券可得”，戴蒙說。

Crisis would hurt real people, not just billionaires: All of this matters to mom-and-pop investors for several reasons.

危機將傷害普通人，不僅僅是百萬富翁：小型投資者會遭受損失，有幾個原因。

Many investors have exposure to high-yield debt through their 401(k) plans. Average Joe's have also been putting a lot of money into echange-traded funds, or ETFs, that track junk bonds. The best example is the iShares iBoxx USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG), which has nearly $17 billion of assets.

很多投資者已經通過他們的401（k）計劃曝光了他們的高收益債券。普通人也把大量的錢投入到債券市場，或者投入到購買垃圾債券的基金裏。最典型的例子就是HYG基金，它的資產已接近170億美元。

A lot of people could get squeezed if the junk bond market dries up. It would also hurt the broader economy.

如果垃圾債券市場枯竭，普通投資者會陷入價格擠壓。也會損傷宏觀經濟。

Malls face 'secular death spiral' The good news is Gundlach doesn't believe a junk bond crisis will happen tomorrow. He said it's okay for investors to own high-yield bonds for now -- but warns a disaster could be in the cards between a year and two years from now.

商業地產面臨‘長期死亡漩渦' 好消息是，岡拉克認爲垃圾債券危機不會迅速爆發。他說，投資者現在持有高收益債券還是可以的——但是，他警告，一場災難可能會在一年到兩年之內發生。

In the meantime, Gundlach is advising people to stay away from certain sectors of the stock market that have benefited from investors' hunt for yield.

與此同時，岡拉克建議人們不要進入股票市場的某個確定的類別，因爲那裏充斥着殺散戶的獵手。

He specifically pointed to Master Limited Partnerships, or MLPs. These are complicated enterprises that pay out fat dividends but are heavily leveraged. When rates rise, their profit margins can collapse.

他特別指出了業主有限合夥制企業。它們是很複雜的企業，它們支付很高的股息，但是也有很高的槓桿。當利率上升時，它們的邊緣利潤就會崩潰。

Gundlach also isn't a fan of mall REITs, or real-estate investment trusts, which have performed well because they are required to return a huge chunk of their profits to investors as dividends. Mall owner General Growth Properties (GGP) is actually the best S&P 500 stock of the entire bull market.

岡拉克不是房地產信託投資基金的粉絲，雖然這些基金看起來確實很好，因爲他們需要回饋給投資者一大筆股息。商業地產公司GGP是整個牛市中標準普爾500最好的股票。

"We're in a secular death spiral for malls," Gundlach said.

岡拉克說，"我們的商業地產正處在長期死亡漩渦中。"