俄羅斯滑向金融危機

Russia lurched towards a financial crisis evoking parallels with its 1998 crash, as the rouble plunged more than 11 per cent despite a dramatic midnight interest rate rise by its central bank.

俄羅斯正滑向一場金融危機，令人聯想起該國1998年的經濟崩潰。盧布昨日進一步暴跌逾11%，儘管俄羅斯央行在午夜時分戲劇性上調利率。

The rouble turmoil showed signs of spreading to global markets, as investors piled into haven assets and German bond yields dropped to a record low.

盧布的動盪顯示出向全球市場擴散的跡象，投資者大舉轉投避險資產，德國債券收益率跌至創紀錄低點。

In a sign of the pressure policy makers are under, Sergey Shvetsov, deputy governor of the central bank, said the situation was “critical”. “I couldn’t imagine even a year ago that such a thing would happen — even in my worst nightmares,” he told an event in Moscow.

突顯政策制定者所受巨大壓力的一個跡象是，俄羅斯央行副行長謝爾蓋•什韋佐夫(Sergey Shvetsov)表示，當前局勢處於“緊要關頭”。他在莫斯科舉行的一場活動期間表示：“即便在一年前，我在最險惡的噩夢裏也想象不到會發生這種事。”

Russian shoppers rushed to buy goods before the currency lost more value, while some banks ran short of cash as customers stocked up on dollars and euros.

俄羅斯消費者開始恐慌性購物，試圖搶在盧布進一步貶值前買入各種商品。與此同時，部分銀行由於客戶囤積美元和歐元而遭遇現金短缺。

“Russia is in full-blown currency crisis,” said Alexander Moseley, fund manager at Schroders. “It is difficult to see the underlying source of stress ending.”

施羅德(Schroders)基金經理亞歷山大•莫斯利(Alexander Moseley)表示：“俄羅斯已陷入一場全面的貨幣危機。很難看到根本的壓力來源消失。”

At one point yesterday the rouble tumbled to 80 against the US dollar before recovering to Rbs70. It has fallen more than 50 per cent since the start of the year, reviving memories of the 1998 crash when Russia defaulted on its domestic debt — though its public finances and reserves are in a much healthier state now.

昨天，盧布兌美元匯率曾一度跌至1美元兌80盧布，隨後回升至1美元兌70盧布。自今年初以來，盧布匯率已下跌逾50%，令人回想起1998年俄羅斯發生國內債務違約、引發經濟崩潰的情形——儘管該國現在的公共財政和外匯儲備狀況比那時強得多。

The rouble’s slide comes in the run-up to Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen’s last monetary policy meeting of 2014. If she sends a strong signal on rate rises next year it could extend the rout in emerging markets by sucking capital back into the US.

盧布暴跌之際，適逢美聯儲主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)即將主持2014年最後一次貨幣政策會議。如果她釋放出明年將提升利率的強烈信號，那將會吸引資金迴流美國，從而加劇新興市場的跌勢。

The rouble’s drop has been driven by declining confidence in the central bank, western sanctions against Russia over its involvement in Ukraine and a falling oil price which dipped below $60 yesterday for the first time since July 2009. It presents a huge problem for President Vladimir Putin.

盧布下跌的推動因素，包括各方對俄羅斯央行信心下滑、西方因俄羅斯插手烏克蘭事務而制裁俄羅斯、以及油價不斷下跌。昨天，油價自2009年7月以來首次跌至每桶60美元以下。這給俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)帶來了巨大問題。

As the rouble continued to slide, Dmitry Medvedev, prime minister, summoned top central bank and government officials for urgent talks on the financial and economic situation.

隨着盧布繼續下滑，俄羅斯總理德米特里•梅德韋傑夫(Dmitry Medvedev)曾召集央行及政府的最高級別官員，就俄羅斯金融和經濟形勢展開緊急討論。

Investors and Russian citizens are now looking to an annual press conference by Mr Putin tomorrow for signals on how he plans to deal with the crisis — and in particular for any signs that he may soften his stance on Ukraine in an attempt to ease sanctions.

目前，投資者和俄羅斯公民正在關注明天由普京主持的年度記者招待會，以便找到有關普京計劃如何應對危機的信號——尤其是他可能在烏克蘭問題上放軟身段、以求緩解西方制裁的任何信號。

The failure of Russia’s central bank on Monday night to stem the currency’s sharp declines with an emergency interest rate rise of 6.5 points to 17 per cent raised speculation that Moscow would introduce capital controls.

週一晚上，俄羅斯央行將利率緊急提升6.5個百分點至17%，但這一舉措未能阻止盧布急劇下滑，引發了俄羅斯政府可能出臺資本管制的猜測。

The rouble’s fall ricocheted through global financial markets, encouraging a flight to quality among investors. Yields on 10-year debt issued by Germany dropped to 0.56 per cent for the first time, while equivalent Japanese bond yields hit a record low of 0.36 per cent.

盧布暴跌在全球金融市場引發震盪，促使投資者快速轉往高品質資產。德國發行的10年期債券的收益率首次跌至0.56%。與此同時，日本10年期債券的收益率降至0.36%的創紀錄低點。

Moscow’s Micex stock index fell more than 8 per cent during the day before recovering, with shares in Russia’s biggest bank, Sberbank, down 17 per cent and Gazprom down 10 per cent.

莫斯科Micex股指一度下跌逾8%，隨後有所回升。俄羅斯最大銀行——俄羅斯聯邦儲蓄銀行(Sberbank)股價下跌了17%，而俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司(Gazprom)股價下跌了10%。

Additional reporting by Jack Farchy, Elaine Moore, Alice Ross and Michael Hunter

傑克•法爾基(Jack Farchy)、伊萊恩•摩爾(Elaine Moore)、艾麗絲•羅斯(Alice Ross)、邁克爾•亨特(Michael Hunter)補充報道