世行放貸額創金融危機後最高水平

A surge in demand by ailing commodity exporters in the developing world has pushed up lending from the World Bank this year to its highest levels since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.

發展中世界陷入困境的大宗商品出口國的借款需求飆升，使得世界銀行(World Bank)今年發放的貸款創下2008年金融危機結束以後的最高水平。

Finance ministers and central bankers from around the world are due to gather in Washington this week for the spring meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The latter is widely expected on Tuesday to downgrade its 3.4 per cent global growth forecast for this year.

世界各國的財政部長和央行行長們將於本週出席於華盛頓召開的世界銀行和國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的春季會議。外界普遍預期，IMF將於週二下調對於今年全球增長3.4%的預期。

But alongside scheduled discussions on everything from slowing emerging economies to tax havens, officials at the World Bank will be dealing with an increase in requests for loans from commodity exporters such as Indonesia, Nigeria and Peru as they struggle to cope with the effects of the collapse in global commodity prices.

但除了新興經濟體增長放緩和避稅港等議程之內的討論以外，世行的官員們還將商議印尼、尼日利亞和祕魯等大宗商品出口國貸款請求增加的問題。這些國家正在艱難應對全球大宗商品價格暴跌帶來的影響。

In the fiscal year to June, the bank is on pace to lend $25bn-$30bn via its main lending arm, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the bank’s top two officials said in an interview with the Financial Times. That would be most the IBRD has loaned to member countries since the immediate aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, which in 2010 caused the bank to lend $44.2bn.

世行的兩位高官在接受英國《金融時報》採訪時表示，在截止今年6月的財年裏，該行將通過其主要放貸機構——國際復興開發銀行(IBRD)發放250億美元至300億美元的貸款。這將是IBRD自2008年的金融危機結束以後向其成員國發放的最多數額的貸款——金融危機的餘波在2010年促使該行發放了442億美元貸款。

“It is our highest lending in a non-crisis period ever,” said Jim Yong Kim, the World Bank’s president, who has begun a push for an increase in the bank’s capital driven in part by the rising demand for aid.

世行行長金墉(Jim Yong Kim)表示：“這是我們有史以來在非危機時期發放的最高數額的貸款。”金墉開始推動增加世行資本，這在一定程度上是因爲援助需求不斷增長。

Part of the surge in lending, Mr Kim said, was because of increasing requests to help with crises ranging from Ebola to the exodus of millions of people from Syria and other conflict-affected countries, as well as longer-term responses to things like climate change.

金墉表示，貸款飆升一定程度上是因爲請求援助的情況增加，以應對各種危機——從埃博拉病毒到數百萬人逃離敘利亞和其他遭受衝突的國家——以及對氣候變化等問題的長期迴應。

But almost half of this year’s lending — about 45 per cent — would come in the form of what the World Bank called “development policy lending”, or lending directly to national budgets that is not tied to specific physical projects, said Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the bank’s chief operating officer.

但世行首席運營官斯莉•穆爾雅妮•英德拉瓦蒂(Sri Mulyani Indrawati)表示，在今年發放的貸款中，近乎半數（約45%）將以世行所稱的“發展政策貸款”的形式發放，即直接貸款給國家預算，與具體實際項目無關。

Demand for such loans is growing as the collapse in oil and other commodity prices has left yawning budget gaps in countries such as Nigeria. Africa’s top exporter is in increasingly dire economic straits and has turned to the bank to help it plug what is expected to be an $11bn budget deficit this year.

隨着石油和其他大宗商品價格暴跌導致尼日利亞等國預算缺口擴大，此類貸款需求逐步增長。非洲最大出口國的經濟形勢日益嚴峻，已向世行求助，以補足今年預計達到110億美元的預算赤字。

Such lending has prompted criticism that the World Bank is at risk of encroaching on the IMF’s crisis-response role, and that it is in effect enabling governments to avoid making the tough political decision to turn to the IMF for assistance.

此類貸款引發外界批評，認爲世行可能侵蝕IMF的危機迴應角色，它實際上讓各國政府避免做出向IMF尋求援助的艱難政治決定。

There is some evidence that lending by the bank has helped governments at least delay an approach to the fund, whose rescues often come with demands for reforms attached and carry stigma for countries.

有證據顯示，世行提供的貸款至少幫助各國政府推遲向IMF尋求援助，後者的紓困往往附帶改革要求，並讓受援國背上不好的名聲。

Angola last week requested an IMF emergency loan, marking the second time in less than seven years that it has turned to the fund. Yet that move came just nine months after it received a $650m budget-support package from the World Bank, and after it had spent years garnering financial support from China to avoid a return to the fund.

上週，安哥拉向IMF請求緊急貸款，這是不到7年內該國第二次向IMF求助。然而，就在9個月前，安哥拉剛剛從世行收到6.5億美元的預算支持貸款，而且該國曾花費多年時間爭取獲得中國財政支持，以避免再次向IMF求助。

Both Mr Kim and Mrs Sri Mulyani denied that the World Bank was seeking to infringe on the IMF’s territory. The bank’s lending, they said, also came with plenty of requirements for reforms and in consultation with the IMF.

金墉和斯莉•穆爾雅妮都否認世行尋求侵犯IMF的“地盤”。他們表示，世行的貸款同樣附帶大量改革要求，並徵詢IMF意見。

“I think you would be hard-pressed to find a country that sees us as an easy mark compared to the IMF,” said Mr Kim.

金墉表示：“有哪個國家會認爲我們與IMF相比容易上當受騙？我想你們是很難找到的。”

The surge in demand highlighted the need for the World Bank’s shareholders to consider giving it more resources, said Mr Kim. During the past two years the bank has already cut its cost base by $400m and has found new ways to leverage its existing equity. Still, it needed more ammunition, he said.

金墉表示，借款需求飆升突顯世行股東有必要考慮向世行提供更多資源。過去兩年中，世行將成本基礎削減了4億美元，而且找到了多種利用現有股本的新方法。然而，他表示，世行還需要更多“彈藥”。

Shareholders are building up to the regular replenishment later this year of the World Bank’s fund for lending to poor countries. That would be followed by a bigger discussion, which would climax next year, over the World Bank’s capital structure, said Mr Kim.

股東們將在今年晚些時候增加提供定期補充資金，以擴充世行用於向窮國放貸的資金。金墉表示，在這之後可能進行一場更大範圍的討論，圍繞世行的資本結構展開，並在明年達到高潮。