無需對中國債務危機過度悲觀

Much of the negativity about world Growth prospects at the moment seems to stem from the absence of a credit boom in any major market and worries over the consequences of higher US interest rates for the first time since 2006.

目前，許多人對全球增長前景感到悲觀，這似乎是因爲主要市場缺乏信貸熱潮、以及對美國自2006年來首次加息的後果感到擔憂。

The lack of a credit boom means that growth is more subdued than it was in the run-up to the global financial crisis.

缺乏信貸熱潮意味着，與此次全球金融危機前夕相比，如今的經濟增長更爲低迷。

In particular, there are fears about China’s growth prospects, given the recent bad news concerning weak credit demand, high real interest rates and tight liquidity. However, we see three reasons for at least some optimism.

鑑於最近中國出現了信貸需求疲弱、實際利率高企以及流動性緊張的壞消息，中國經濟的增長前景尤其令人擔心。然而，我們有三個理由對中國經濟至少保持一些樂觀態度。

First, China’s debt-to-GDP ratio stabilised as of mid-2014, albeit at a relatively high 251 per cent of GDP.

首先，截止2014年中期，中國債務與國內生產總值(GDP)的比率企穩，雖然251%的比率仍相對較高。

While China’s dramatic debt increases of the past five years grabbed headlines worldwide, as the ratio leapt nearly 100 percentage points from 155 per cent of GDP, the fact the ratio has begun to stabilise has not yet received much attention.

儘管過去5年中國債務激增成爲世界各地的新聞頭條（債務比率從155%飆升近100個百分點），但很多人沒有注意到這一比率實際上已經開始企穩。

This is an important milestone in China’s debt turnaround, following years of excess. Over the past five years, total credit growth in China was on average 8 percentage points faster than nominal GDP growth – way beyond the point at which credit growth becomes inefficient for any economy.

在經歷了多年的債務比率過高之後，這是中國債務狀況好轉的一個重要里程碑。過去5年，中國信貸總額增速較名義GDP增速平均高出8個百分點，遠遠超出信貸增長達到某一點就對任何經濟都無效的水平。

However, since mid-2014 China’s credit has been growing in line with GDP. Essentially, this means China is now getting more ‘bang for its buck’ for every new unit of borrowing. Also, attitudes to debt have changed, with loan officers in China much more averse now to taking the risk of a loan going bad than previously.

然而，自2014年中期以來，中國的信貸一直與GDP同步增長。重要的是，這意味着中國現在的每一筆借款正變得更加“物有所值”。此外，人們對債務的態度也發生了變化，中國的信貸官員現在承擔壞賬風險的意願遠不如以前。

While this doesn’t mean that China’s leverage risks have been resolved, as the excessive debt accumulation of prior years still needs to be dealt with, it does mean that debt challenges are no longer escalating, which is good news.

這並不意味着中國的槓桿風險得到了化解，之前幾年累積的過多債務仍需解決，但它確實意味着，債務挑戰不再加大，這是個好消息。

Resuming past excesses is not an option. China’s debt-to-GDP ratio is still relatively high compared with other economies at a similar stage of development, so debt cannot be used to boost growth significantly in the near future without risking even more solvency issues later.

恢復過去那種過度舉債的做法並不是辦法。與處於類似發展階段的其他經濟體相比，中國債務與GDP的比率仍相對較高，因此近期中國不可能通過大幅舉債來促進經濟增長，否則以後就會面臨更多的償付問題風險。

The official non-performing loan ratio is set to keep rising through 2015 and beyond. Most likely not all of the bad debt will be recognised immediately, which comes with both benefits and potential costs.

在整個2015年以及之後的一段時期內，官方不良貸款比率將會繼續上升。最有可能的情況是，中國不會立即確認所有壞賬，這既有好處也會帶來潛在的成本。

On the upside, we are unlikely to see a sudden jump in China’s non-performing loan ratio, which could have led to a possible market panic.

從好的方面來說，我們不太可能看到中國的不良貸款比率突然飆升——不良貸款比率飆升可能會讓市場恐慌。

On the downside, those unrecognised bad loans may mean that interest costs are turned into principle and count towards new credit growth. Unfortunately, by definition this part of credit growth is not going to generate new GDP.

從不好的角度來看，這些尚未被確認的壞賬可能意味着，利息成本將轉變爲本金並計入新增貸款。遺憾的是，按照定義，這部分新增貸款不會創造新的GDP。

We will need to watch carefully whether this ‘evergreening’ of bad loans becomes too large a share of new credit growth. Importantly, this does not appear to be the case so far.

我們需要認真觀察這種“常青”壞賬佔新增貸款的比例是否過高。重要的是，目前這種比例似乎還不是太高。

The second reason to be a bit more upbeat about China is the sign of positive sentiment among property developers. Results of our recent property market survey of 30 companies in five major cities around China – which we have been running twice a year since 2010 – indicate that the industry will be in better shape by the second half of 2015, which bodes well for China’s growth.

對中國多一些樂觀的第二個原因是，有跡象表明，房地產開發商信心回升。我們最近針對中國5個大城市的30家房地產公司的市場調查顯示，到2015年下半年，房地產業的低迷狀況將有所改善，這對中國增長是個好兆頭。自2010年起，我們每年進行兩次這種調查。

Developers believe the excessive amount of inventory in lower-tier cities will be worked through by the second half of 2015. They also anticipate better appetite for land investment among their peers before the end of this year. This is good news, given the drag on GDP growth from the sector recently.

開發商認爲，二三線城市的過多庫存將在2015年下半年得到消化。它們還預測，在今年底之前房地產公司的土地投資興趣將上升。鑑於房地產行業最近對GDP增長的拖累，這是個好消息。

Finally, our SME survey of over 600 companies across China showed a slight improvement in sentiment in January from a low in December.

最後，我們對中國600多家中小企業的調查顯示，1月的信心指數較12月低點略有上升。

The results indicate that this optimism is being supported by broad-based policy easing in China. And, as we expect to see more monetary easing in the form of at least two more reserve requirement ratio cuts and a further lowering of policy rates, business confidence could continue to improve.

報告顯示，這種樂觀情緒正受到中國廣泛寬鬆政策的支持。我們預計將看到更多的貨幣寬鬆政策，包括至少還有兩次下調存款準備金率以及進一步下調政策利率，因此企業信心可能會繼續改善。

While we all should be getting used to China’s ‘new normal’ of slower growth, we should not be worried about the slowdown deepening even further in 2015 and 2016.

我們都應適應中國經濟增長放緩的“新常態”，但我們不應對2015年和2016年經濟進一步放緩感到擔憂。

There are many reasons to be less bearish on China than the present consensus, and the fact that there is no unsustainable credit booming taking off again in China, or anywhere else in the world’s major economies, should be a source of relief.

與目前人們達成的共識相比，我們有很多理由不用對中國感到那麼悲觀，中國或者全球其他大型經濟體沒有再出現不可持續的貸款熱潮，我們應對此感到欣慰。

Growth of 7 per cent annually means that GDP doubles every 10 years – a very respectable rate for any economy at China’s present stage of development. While by no means guaranteed, we are also waiting for potential growth-boosting measures over the longer term from structural reform of rural land, the ‘hukou’ system and the state owned enterprise sector.

7%的年增速意味着GDP將每10年翻一番，對於任何一個處在中國當前這種發展階段的經濟體而言，這都是相當可觀的。我們仍在期待政府在更長時期內推出農村土地、戶口制度以及國有企業等結構性改革的潛在促增長措施，儘管這絕非板上釘釘的事情。

In the meantime, expect financial reforms from China in 2015 to help shift its allocation of capital even more towards being determined by market forces – making growth more sustainable.

同時，預計中國將在2015年開展金融改革，這將有助於讓資金配置更多的轉向由市場力量決定，從而讓增長變得更可持續。

David Mann is chief economist, Asia, at Standard Chartered Bank.

本文作者是渣打銀行(Standard Chartered Bank)亞洲首席經濟學家