中國債務問題需更全面解決方案

China’s leaders need to look beyond the current solutions being floated to tackle the country’s mounting corporate debt problems and come up with a bigger plan to do so, the International Monetary Fund’s top China expert has warned.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)負責中國問題的專家警告稱，爲了應對中國日益嚴峻的公司債務問題，中國領導人需要超越目前提出的解決方案，並拿出一個更全面的方案。

The IMF has been expressing growing concern about China’s debt issues and pushing for an urgent response by Beijing to what the fund sees as a serious problem for the Chinese economy. It warned in a report earlier this month that $1.3tn in corporate debt — or almost one in six of the business loans on Chinese banks’ books — was owed by companies who brought in less in revenues than they owed in interest payments alone.

IMF近來對中國債務問題表示了越來越大的關注，並敦促北京方面採取緊急應對措施，以解決IMF眼中中國經濟面臨的這個嚴峻問題。該組織在本月早些時候發佈的一份報告中警告稱，中國那些沒有足夠盈利來支付利息的企業，持有的債務已高達中國上市公司債務的14%，中國可能處於風險之中的銀行對企業貸款接近1.3萬億美元。

In a paper published on Tuesday, James Daniel, the fund’s China mission chief, and two co-authors, went further and warned that Beijing needed a comprehensive strategy to tackle the problem.

IMF中國磋商代表團團長詹姆斯•丹尼爾(James Daniel)與兩位合著者在週二發佈的文章進一步警告稱，中國政府需要一個更全面的戰略來解決該問題。

They warned that the two main responses Beijing was planning to the problem — debt-for-equity swaps and the securitisation of non-performing loans — could in fact make the problem worse if underlying issues were not dealt with.

他們表示，如果不解決根本性的問題，中國政府針對債務問題擬採取的兩大措施——債轉股及不良貸款證券化——事實上會使問題惡化。

“Converting NPLs into equity or securitising them are techniques that can play a role in addressing these problems and have been used successfully by some other countries,” Mr Daniel and his co-authors wrote. “But they are not comprehensive solutions by themselves — indeed, they could worsen the problem, for example, by allowing zombie firms [non-viable firms that are still operating] to keep going.”

丹尼爾及合著者寫道：“儘管這些技術性方案——將不良貸款置換爲股權或將不良貸款證券化——在應對上述問題中能發揮作用，且也曾在其他國家成功實施，但其本身並非全面的解決方案……事實上它們可能會使問題惡化，比如允許‘殭屍’企業（不可持續經營但仍在運行的企業）繼續存續和經營。”

The plan for debt-for-equity swaps could end up offering a temporary lifeline to unviable state-owned companies, they warned. It could also leave them managed by state-owned banks or other officials with little experience in doing so.

他們警告稱，債轉股計劃可能最終會變成向不可持續經營的國企提供的一條臨時的救生索，還可能會導致這些國企最後由不具備經營或企業重組專業知識的國有銀行或其他官員來管理。

Pooling non-performing loans and selling them as securities also presented other potential problems. While it could help clear up debt problems quickly it could also end up helping to prop up struggling state-owned enterprises. Some 60 per cent of non-performing loans in China are owed by SOEs “and are concentrated in a few distressed industries”, they wrote.

把不良貸款打包成證券出售，也帶來了其他潛在問題。儘管這麼做可能有助於迅速清理債務問題，但最終可能也有助於支撐那些處於掙扎中的國企。他們寫道，在中國，約60%的不良貸款是由國企欠下的，“並且集中在少數幾個困難行業”。

The IMF also raised concerns about the depth of China’s domestic market for distressed debt and the possibility that risky securities based on non-performing loans could be sold to retail investors.

IMF還對中國國內問題債務市場的深度、以及將基於不良貸款的高風險證券出售給散戶投資者的可行性表示了擔憂。

What China needed, they argued, was a “comprehensive corporate restructuring” strategy that led to the shutting down of distressed companies, even if they were state-owned and in politically-sensitive sectors.

他們辯稱，中國需要一項“全面的公司重組”戰略，即要關閉不可持續經營的企業，即便它們是國有的、並處於具有政治敏感性的行業。

“Without addressing the fundamental problem of weak firms, any financial restructuring will only result in greater losses in the future.”

“不解決脆弱企業的根本問題，任何財務重組都只會導致未來出現更大的損失。”

A bigger plan would also have to require banks to proactively deal with their non-performing loans, something state-owned Chinese banks have not always been eager to do in the past.

一項更全面的計劃還必須要求銀行主動應對它們的不良貸款。中國國有銀行以往並不總是熱衷於應對這個問題。

The intervention from the IMF comes ahead of the fund’s annual Article 4 review of the Chinese economy with Mr Daniel due to lead a mission to Beijing in June. Addressing the country’s debt problems is likely to be one big focus of those discussions.

6月份，丹尼爾將率領一個代表團訪問北京，完成IMF的中國經濟“第四條款”年度磋商。化解中國的債務問題很可能會成爲此次磋商的一大主題。