解決匯率問題不能靠犧牲貿易

We have seen this film before. The US Congress is threatening a trade war to punish “currency manipulators”, those it deems to be boosting their trade balance artificially at the expense of America. Ordinarily, a threat of legislative action like this folds in the face of a presidential veto. In the past this has resembled a good cop-bad cop routine. The White House would point to anger on Capitol Hill in order to persuade the likes of China and Japan to curb manipulation against the dollar.

我們以前看到過這種景象：美國國會正威脅要發動貿易戰來懲罰“匯率操縱國”，即那些它認爲以犧牲美國利益爲代價、人爲提振本國貿易收支的國家。通常情況下，美國國會採取立法行動的威脅會因美國總統行使否決權而止步。過去，這就像是一種“有人唱白臉、有人唱紅臉”的例行公事。爲了說服中國和日本等國收斂針對本幣兌美元匯率的操縱，美國政府會以國會對此感到憤怒向這些國家施壓。

This time, however, the number of Democrats and Republicans pledging their support for legislation looks unusually potent. President Barack Obama rightly insists that dealing with currency devaluation should be separated from matters of trade. He must hold firm both on the Trade Promotion Authority he seeks from Congress — that enables him to submit “fast track” deals to an up-or-down vote — as well as the Transpacific Partnership talks that are in their final stages. Both Atlantic and Pacific trade deals are at a crossroads. It would be a setback to global growth prospects if they were sabotaged by politics in the very country that initiated them.

不過，這一次，承諾支持上述立法的民主黨和共和黨人數似乎異乎尋常地有說服力。美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)堅稱，應對貨幣貶值是一回事，貿易是另一回事。他是對的。他必須在兩方面堅守立場：一是尋求從國會得到“貿易促進授權”(Trade Promotion Authority)，該授權能讓他把“快車道”(fast-track)協議提交直接表決(up-or-down vote)；二是已進入最後階段的《跨太平洋戰略經濟夥伴關係協定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership，簡稱TPP）談判。跨大西洋和跨太平洋貿易協定目前均處在十字路口。如果這兩個貿易協定被其發起國的政治鬥爭破壞，將對全球經濟增長前景構成打擊。

However, Mr Obama should take nothing for granted. John Boehner, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, has said he needs at least 50 Democratic votes to pass TPA. Yet 150 of the 188-strong Democratic caucus have already signed a petition opposing it. Unlike on previous rounds, they are joined by a growing number of Republicans who object to anything that increases Mr Obama’s authority.

然而，奧巴馬不應認爲這一切不用費力就能得到。美國衆議院議長約翰•博納(John Boehner)已經表示，他需要至少50張民主黨的贊成票才能通過貿易促進授權。但在衆議院的總共188名民主黨議員中，已有150人簽署請願書反對貿易促進授權。與前幾次的情況不同，這次有越來越多的共和黨人也加入了這些民主黨人的陣營，因爲他們反對一切會擴充奧巴馬權力的議案。

Their motives may be different. The left smells a multinational rat that would gnaw at US labour and environmental standards. The right wishes to poke Mr Obama in the eye. Combined, they are an unholy alliance capable of wrecking global trade negotiations.

這些反對者的動機可能各不相同。其中的左翼聞到了一隻會啃食美國勞工及環保標準的“跨國老鼠”的氣味。右翼則希望給奧巴馬添堵。這兩類人合起來，形成了一個能夠毀掉全球貿易談判的邪惡聯盟。

The main problem is that such a measure is unworkable. It would slap duties on imports from countries deemed to be manipulators, this being defined as central bank interventions aimed at providing a currency subsidy. In practice these are hard to prove. One person’s devaluation is another’s monetary policy.

但更主要的問題在於，懲罰所謂匯率操縱國的做法行不通。它會對美國從那些被認爲是匯率操縱國的國家進口的產品強加額外關稅，這裏的匯率操縱被定義爲央行爲提供一種匯率補貼而干預匯率。在實踐中，匯率操縱很難被證實。一些人認爲是壓低匯率的事情，另一些看來卻是正當的貨幣政策。

It could also rebound on the US. Many, including China, objected to the US quantitative easing programmes on precisely such grounds. The US is now complaining about the impact of the European Central Bank’s QE. Both actions were launched to stimulate demand but also boosted exports. Deciding which are manipulations is not a precise science, as the IMF has made clear. Shunting adjudication to the World Trade Organisation would not alter that objection.

美國還可能因此搬起石頭砸了自己的腳。包括中國在內的很多國家，曾經正是以這樣的理由反對美國的量化寬鬆(QE)計劃。美國如今則在抱怨歐洲央行(ECB)量化寬鬆的影響。這兩個舉措的推出均是爲了刺激需求，但也是爲了刺激出口。正如國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)闡明的那樣，判定哪些行爲屬於匯率操縱並不是一門精確的科學。即使將判定工作轉交給世貿組織(WTO)，這一反對理由也依然成立。

The second problem is that it would ruin any chances of a trade deal. The 13-member TPP talks are nearing conclusion. If Congress inserted a currency clause into the final deal it would prompt Japan to abandon the process — and possibly others.

第二個問題是，它會毀掉一切達成貿易協定的機會。13國參與的TPP談判正接近尾聲。如果美國國會在最終協定中插入一項匯率條款，將導致日本退出談判——其他參與國可能也會如此。

The same applies to the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership talks, which are at an earlier stage. Germany’s record export growth is partly helped by the euro’s recent depreciation. Any measure that punished the eurozone for its currency’s downward drift would only hasten the protectionism US lawmakers say that they are trying to stop.

這同樣適用於《跨大西洋貿易和投資夥伴關係協定》（Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership，簡稱TTIP）談判，該協定的談判尚處於早期階段。德國創紀錄的出口增長，部分得益於近期的歐元貶值。如果因歐元匯率下滑而採取措施懲罰歐元區，只會讓美國立法者口口聲聲努力防止的貿易保護主義更早現身。

The dollar is currently riding high because US growth outpaces most of its partners. If the recovery has returned fewer middle class jobs than hoped to US shores, it is because of automation, not competitive devaluation. In any case, trade is not the forum with which to address US currency concerns. Mr Obama knows this. So do cooler heads in Congress. Let us hope they prevail.

由於美國的經濟增長快於它的大部分貿易伙伴，美元匯率目前正處於上漲之中。如果說美國經濟復甦帶來的中產階級就業崗位迴流少於預期，那也是由自動化、而非競爭性貨幣貶值導致的。無論如何，貿易都不是化解美國匯率擔憂的場所。奧巴馬明白這點。美國國會中頭腦較冷靜的議員也明白這點。我們希望他們能佔得上風吧。