日本通過創紀錄預算方案

Shinzo Abe’s cabinet has signed off on a record budget for 2015 that will boost economic growth in Japan’s economy but leaves tough choices on spending for the future.

日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)內閣已簽字批准了2015年的創紀錄預算。該預算將提升日本經濟增長速度，卻會壓縮日本將來在開支上的選擇空間。

The overall budget will rise by 0.5 per cent to Y96.3tn ($814bn) as the ageing population drives up welfare costs, defence spending increases and interest costs rise on the growing public debt.

由於老齡化人口推升社會福利成本、防務開支攀升以及公共債務增長導致利率上升，日本總體預算將攀升0.5%，達到96.3萬億日元（合8140億美元）。

High spending will help Abenomics towards its goals of higher inflation and growth but it highlights how fast-growing welfare costs will rapidly absorb the benefits of last year’s consumption tax rise.

高昂的開支將有助於安倍經濟學(Abenomics)達成提高通脹率及提高增長速度的目標。不過，這也凸顯出，日本快速增長的社會福利成本將迅速吞噬去年提升消費稅的收益。

The higher consumption tax and strong corporate profits because of the weak yen are set to drive revenues to their highest level in 24 years at Y54.5tn — up 9 per cent on the previous year.

更高的消費稅率以及日元疲軟導致的企業盈利增加，將把日本的國民收入大幅提升至24年來的最高水平，達到54.5萬億日元，比去年高9%。

Mr Abe is therefore set to meet his goal of halving Japan’s primary deficit — excluding the cost of interest payments — but with most of the improvement due to a cyclical upturn, it still leaves a vast structural gap between revenue and spending.

這樣，安倍將得以實現將日本基本赤字（指不包括支付國債利息成本的赤字）減半的目標。不過，由於它在很大程度上要歸功於經濟的週期性上升，日本在國民收入和開支之間，依然會存在巨大的結構性差距。

Finance ministry insiders say more stringent cuts will be needed in coming years to meet a pledge to balance the budget, excluding debt-service costs, by 2020.

日本的社會福利開支將會攀升3.3%，達到31.5萬億日元，幾乎是總預算的三倍，也對日本政府其他方面的活動產生了決定性影響。此外，日本防務開支將增長2%，此舉反映了安倍政府優先推進的政策方向。