全球股市以創紀錄高度迎來年

Global stocks touched record highs for a third straight day on Thursday, as the first trading week of 2018 built on last year’s gains, prompting a renowned critic of market bubbles to warn that investors should prepare for a “melt-up”.

週四，全球股市連續第三天觸及歷史高點。2018年的首個交易周在去年上漲的基礎上進一步攀升，促使一位曾準確預測泡沫的知名市場評論員警告投資者要準備迎接“融漲”。

Signs of the stronger economic growth that was central to last year’s rally has continued this week as a slew of purchasing managers’ index data showed factory output increasing worldwide.

助推去年股市漲勢的強勁經濟增長勢頭本週延續，一批製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)顯示世界各地的工業產出增長。

The FTSE All World index has added 2 per cent since traders and investors returned from the new year holiday, extending 2017’s rise of 22 per cent — the fourth-best year since the benchmark started in 1993.

自交易員與投資者結束新年假期以來，富時環球指數(FTSE All World Index)已經上漲了2%，延伸了2017年22%的漲幅。去年是該基準自1993年發佈以來第四個最佳年份。

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose above the 25,000 level as Wall Street opened on Thursday and the S&P 500 pushed further into record territory with gains of 0.4 per cent. Surging technology share prices on Tuesday propelled the Nasdaq Composite past the 7,000 level for the first time.

週四華爾街開盤後，道瓊斯工業平均指數(Dow Jones Industrial Average)攀升至25000點上方，而標普500指數(S&P 500)以0.4%的漲幅在創紀錄區間進一步推進。週二，科技股股價飆升推動納斯達克綜合指數(Nasdaq Composite)首次衝破7000點大關。

Buoyed by the passage of tax reform late last month, Wall Street analysts have upgraded earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies, while oil’s rally to its highest level since May 2015 has been a boon for energy shares — which have led the US benchmark over the past month.

受上月下旬稅制改革通過的鼓舞，華爾街分析師紛紛提高對標普500成分股企業的盈利預測，而油價上漲至2015年5月以來的最高點，對能源股來說亦爲一個利好；該板塊在過去一個月領漲這一美國基準股指。

“Rarely has the outlook for a new year been as encouraging as it is today,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg. “We expect the synchronised global upswing to continue in 2018 at the above-trend pace reached in the last three quarters of 2017.”

“新一年的前景很少像今天這樣令人鼓舞，”貝倫貝格銀行(Berenberg Bank)首席經濟學家霍格爾?施米丁(Holger Schmieding)說。“我們預計，2018年全球同步增長將延續2017年後三個季度高於趨勢線的增速。”

Jeremy Grantham, the founder of Boston-based asset manager GMO who correctly called the dotcom and housing bubbles, said: “As a historian of the great equity bubbles, I also recognise that we are currently showing signs of entering the blow-off or melt-up phase of this very long bull market.”

總部位於波士頓的資產管理公司GMO的創始人傑裏米?格蘭瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)曾正確預測網絡股泡沫和房地產泡沫，他表示：“作爲一個見證過股市巨大泡沫的歷史學家，我也認識到目前有跡象顯示，我們正進入這一持續已經很久的牛市的衝頂回落或融漲階段。”

While the investment strategist had signalled a sharp change of tone in his longstanding bearish views last year, his latest forecast is his strongest statement yet on a “late bubble surge” for equities.

雖然這位投資策略師長期看跌的論調在去年急轉彎，但他的最新預測是其對股市“後期泡沫式飆漲”的最強烈陳述。

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 Average started the trading year on Thursday with a 3.3 per cent pop, its biggest one-day gain in more than a year which left the Japanese market at a 26-year high.

週四東京的日經225平均指數(Nikkei 225 Average)以上漲3.3%迎來新的交易年，這是其一年多以來的最大單日漲幅，使日本股市達到26年來新高。

Bond markets are also providing a benign backdrop for stocks, with a becalmed reaction to the prospects of very easy money ending this year from central banks. The 10-year US Treasury yield has traded in a tight range below 2.50 per cent since touching that high last month.

債券市場也爲股市提供了一個良性的背景，對各大央行今年結束寬鬆貨幣政策的前景反應平靜。自上月觸及2.5%的收益率高點以來，美國10年期國債的收益率徘徊在低於這一水平的狹窄區間。

“The party has begun,” said Mr Schmieding. “Strong growth at low inflation will not last for ever. So far, however, neither the US nor Europe or Japan have built up serious excesses that would require a cleansing recession soon. The party can still last for a while.”

“派對開始了，”施米丁說，“低通脹水平的強勁增長不會一直持續下去。不過，迄今爲止，美國、歐洲和日本都沒有出現需要很快通過衰退來清理的嚴重過度行爲。這場派對可能還會持續一陣。”

Romain Boscher, co-head of equities at Paris-based asset manager Amundi, said concerns about a bubble for US equities were overdone. “Compared to past crises (2000, 2007), we don’t see excess in terms of flows,” he said. “M&A will likely revive and support the market now that the tax reform has been legislated. Financial conditions are still benign.”

總部設在巴黎的資產管理公司Amundi的股票聯席主管羅曼?博舍爾(Romain Boscher)表示，對美國股市泡沫的擔憂是過度的。“與過去的危機（2000年和2007年）相比，我們並沒有看到過多的流量。”他說，“考慮到稅改已經成爲法律，併購活動很可能復甦並支撐市場。金融狀況依然是良性的。”

But Mr Grantham, who favours emerging market stocks, said the melt-up may end as early as this year — “within the next six months to two years is likely”.

但青睞新興市場股票的格蘭瑟姆表示，融漲可能會在今年告終——“很可能在未來6個月到2年之間”。

He added: “When most have talking heads yammering about Amazon, Tencent, and bitcoin and not Patriot replays — just as late 1999 featured the latest in — we are probably down to the last few months. Good luck. We’ll all need some.”

他補充道：“當電視上的多數評論人士都滔滔不絕地談論亞馬遜(Amazon)、騰訊(Tencent)和比特幣，而不是電視劇《愛國者》(Patriot)的重播的時候——就像1999年末電視上都是有關的最新動態——我們很可能已經到最後幾個月了。祝你好運。我們都會需要點運氣。”