宇宙神艦阿里巴巴的增長戰略不明

No one disputes that to reward investors, Alibaba must keep growing at tremendous speed in the years to come, least of all its chairman Jack Ma. The question is, where will Alibaba concentrate its investments and manpower to generate the fast-rising revenues and profits it’s promising?

今後幾年，阿里巴巴（Alibaba）必須保持飛速增長，以回饋投資者，對於這一點，沒人會提出異議，阿里巴巴董事長馬雲更不會有異議。但問題在於，要實現其承諾的收入和利潤快速增長，阿里巴巴應該把財力和人力集中在哪裏？

That challenge will require a highly focused growth strategy. Right now, Alibaba’s plans for expansion are a muddle.

要應對這項挑戰，需要有高度集中的增長戰略。而眼下，阿里巴巴的擴張計劃可謂一團亂麻。

Investors are confused—or if they’re not, they should be—by the dissonance between Alibaba’s long-standing goal of dominating its home market and its newfound mission to become a major force around the globe. In its most recent IPO prospectus, filed on September 5, the e-commerce phenomenon makes little mention of plans to expand outside its home market. Instead, it touts Alibaba’s commanding position in China and its ideal positioning to ride the growth wave in digital shopping, which is one of the great consumer trends in history.

阿里巴巴長期以來的目標是主導本土市場，然而，最近該公司又決心在全球市場上大展宏圖，這兩項使命之間的偏差令投資者困惑。他們也確實應該感到困惑。在9月5日提交的招股說明書裏，電子商務巨頭阿里巴巴幾乎沒有提到海外擴張計劃。相反，招股書大談特談阿里巴巴在國內佔據主導地位，並且其定位絕佳，可從數字購物增長浪潮中獲益良多。數字購物浪潮可謂史上一大消費趨勢。

To make its point, the prospectus is famously packed with staggering statistics, among them that Alibaba handles $298 billion a year in online retail orders and controls 86% of the mushrooming mobile marketplace. Put simply, you could summarize the 665-page prospectus in four words, “China is our future.”

爲說明這一點，招股書列舉了一系列令人咋舌的數據，這也是招股書的亮點之一。這些數據包括：阿里巴巴一年處理的線上訂單額高達2980億美元；在蓬勃發展的移動購物領域，阿里巴巴控制着86%的市場份額。簡單來說，這份長達665頁的招股書可以用一句話來概括，那就是“中國是我們的未來”。

But on its recent IPO roadshow, Ma has been selling a totally different strategy. On September 15 in Hong Kong, Ma told reporters that Alibaba harbors big growth ambitions in the U.S. and Europe. And later in San Francisco, he lauded Alibaba’s prospects in Russia and Brazil.

然而，在最近的IPO路演上，馬雲一直在宣揚另一種截然不同的戰略。9月15日，他在香港對記者表示，阿里巴巴意欲在美國和歐洲大展拳腳。隨後，他又在舊金山盛讚阿里巴巴在俄羅斯和巴西發展前景廣闊。

“It’s not clear what their strategy is,” says Josh Green, co-founder and CEO of Panjiva, a firm that provides global trade data to corporate customers. “The prospectus is all about opportunities in China, and Ma is now talking about his global ambitions. It may be all right for now because they’re doing so well, but in the medium-term, investors will look with a wary eye on any investment that doesn’t have a coherent strategy.”

對此，服務企業用戶的全球貿易數據供應商Panjiva聯合創始人兼首席執行官喬希o格林表示：“他們的戰略不清晰。招股書中大書特書在中國的機會，而馬雲現在講的卻是全球發展大計。現在阿里巴巴如日中天，這樣做也許沒問題。但中期而言，如果投資戰略前後不一，將招來投資者警惕的目光。”

Green believes that Alibaba ought to deepen its dominance in China. “They’re in a network business,” he says. “The more customers they attract at home, the more businesses follow, then more customers want the new products, and the customer base grows in a mutually reinforcing cycle.”

格林認爲，阿里巴巴應該鞏固在中國的主導地位。他表示：“他們從事的是網絡業務，在本土吸引的消費者越多，隨之而來的商戶就越多，而新的產品反過來又會吸引更多消費者，用戶羣的增長會呈現相輔相成之勢。”

Investing in Alibaba constitutes a bet on a single nation, and the China of tomorrow may not prove the juggernaut of the past decade, particularly given the recent news of its slowing growth rate and the threat of a downward spiral in real estate prices and construction. Still, getting stronger in the areas in which you’re already a leader makes sense.

投資阿里巴巴就相當於把寶全押在中國身上，而明天的中國也許不會像過去十年那樣風光無限，特別是考慮到近來中國經濟增長放緩、房產價格和建設規模存在螺旋下跌風險。不過，在自己已經是龍頭的領域進一步做強合情合理。

Surprisingly, Alibaba—by its action, rather than its words—isn’t showing a lot of confidence in the next phase of China’s e-commerce miracle. Rather than concentrating solely on digital, it is buying lots of unrelated businesses, including a movie studio, an appliance manufacturer, and a soccer team.

讓人意外的是，雖然嘴上不那麼說，但阿里巴巴的行動表明，該公司對中國電商發展奇蹟的未來並不是特別有信心。阿里巴巴並沒有把注意力完全放在數字領域，而是收購了許多和電商無關的業務，包括電影公司、家電製造商和足球俱樂部。

“I’d like to ask Alibaba if they’re bullish or bearish on China,” asks Green. “If they’re bullish, they’d use their poll position to do everything to exploit their dominance.”

格林說：“我想問問阿里巴巴，他們對中國的態度是樂觀還是悲觀。如果樂觀，他們就應該利用自己的領先地位，竭盡全力發揮主導優勢。”

If Alibaba does things to become more powerful at home, such as continuing its purchases of logistics specialists, that’s all to the good. But its current acquisition march looks more like a campaign to diversify away from e-commerce.

如果阿里巴巴的舉措是爲了鞏固在中國的領先地位，比如繼續收購專業物流公司，那是好事。但現在，該公司的收購行動看着像是要脫離電商領域實現多元化。

So far, Alibaba’s attempts at global expansion haven’t worked, and they’re unlikely to produce anything resembling its success in China, even if they are supported by gigantic investments. Alibaba actually started as a global business-to-business marketplace, . “From its earliest days, struggled outside China,” says Green. Local companies proved formidable competitors. “So Alibaba pivoted back to China when they realized their unique position to capitalize on the consumer side.”

到目前爲止，阿里巴巴在全球擴張方面做出的嘗試都還沒有成功，就算有鉅額資金支持，這些措施也不太可能重現阿里巴巴在中國取得的成功。實際上，阿里巴巴最初起步時是一個全球B2B平臺——。格林說：“最初，在海外苦苦掙扎。”實際情況證明，海外市場的競爭對手很難對付。“因此，阿里巴巴意識到自身在利用消費端的獨特地位後，就把重心轉移到了國內。”

Right now, Alibaba appears to be pursuing a two-part approach to foreign expansion. In developing markets such as Russia and Brazil, it wants to challenge eBay, Amazon, and local players to become a major or dominant competitor. In the U.S., it’s not clear if Alibaba is making scattered investments to diversify its holdings or if it wants to replicate its core e-commerce business. In the former category, it’s taken stakes in Lyft, a car-sharing service, and retail site ShopRunner. But it has also launched its own shopping platform, , a move that may foreshadow the creation of a full suite of e-commerce platforms in the U.S.

目前看來，阿里巴巴正在通過兩條途徑實現海外擴張。在俄羅斯和巴西等發展中市場，它想挑戰eBay、亞馬遜（Amazon）和當地電商，從而成爲主要競爭者，乃至佔據主導地位。在美國，還不清楚阿里巴巴是在四處投資以實現業務多元化；還是說它想複製自己的核心電商業務。該公司已經持有租車服務公司Lyft和零售網站ShopRunner的股份，這屬於多元化。但它也推出了自己的購物網站，這也許是其在美國打造全方位電商平臺的先兆。

Investors, take note: Alibaba’s global expansion won’t be nearly as profitable as its fabulous business in China, the source of 93% of its revenues. “I have great confidence about their ability to beat Amazon in China, and very little confidence in their ability to beat Amazon in the U.S.,” says Green.

投資者請注意，和阿里巴巴驚人的中國業務（爲該公司貢獻了93%的收入）相比，其全球擴張的盈利水平遠不會像前者那麼高。格林指出：“我完全相信阿里巴巴能在中國擊敗亞馬遜，但我不大相信他們能在美國做到這一點。”

Green worries most that Alibaba will suffer not so much from a slowdown in China, but rather from a “self-inflicted wound” caused by pursuing the wrong strategy. It’s all about how Alibaba uses its capital. Pouring money into China has been a winner. Lavishing capital in places where tough competitors all want a piece could be a loser. For Alibaba, a global strategy may indeed be the wrong one.

格林認爲，中國經濟減速並不會給阿里巴巴帶來多大的不利影響，他最擔心的是阿里巴巴由於採取了錯誤的戰略而自討苦吃，以至於元氣大傷。說到底，問題在於阿里巴巴如何運用自身資金。把大量資金投入中國市場令該公司大獲成功。而在強手如林、人人都想分一杯羹的地方一擲千金則可能一敗塗地。對阿里巴巴來說，全球化戰略或許真的是個錯誤。