潘石屹 當前的中國樓市就是泰坦尼克

China's once buoyant property market is facing some rough sailing. In fact, according to one tycoon -- Soho China Ltd's chief Pan Shiyi -- the real estate market is looking more like the Titanic headed in the direction of an iceberg.

曾經炙手可熱的中國房地產市場正遭遇坎坷。據房地產大亨、SOHO中國(Soho China Ltd.)董事長潘石屹說，當前的房地產市場看起來更像是朝着冰山駛去的泰坦尼克號。

Mr. Pan, the co-founder and chairman of Soho China Ltd., is taking a very bearish view on the housing market, which has struggled this year. In the first four months of the year, home sales were down 9.9% from the same period a year ago in value terms, official data shows. New construction starts -- as calculated by area -- were down almost 25% year over year in the same period.

潘石屹是SOHO中國聯合創始人和董事長。他非常不看好中國樓市。今年中國樓市一直處於困境之中。官方數據顯示，今年前四個月，房屋銷售額較上年同比下降9.9%。房屋新開工面積較上年同比下降近25%。

As if that's not bad enough, demand is also weakening in an expanding number of cities as banks tighten mortgage lending and sales are dampened by widespread expectations of price cuts.

雪上加霜的是，隨着銀行收緊抵押貸款，加之房價下跌的普遍預期打擊了房屋銷售，越來越多的城市出於需求萎縮的狀態中。

'I think China's property market is like the Titanic and it will soon hit an iceberg in front of it,' Mr. Pan told a financial forum on Friday, according to the China Business News.

據《第一財經日報》報道，潘石屹上週五在一個金融論壇上說，他認爲中國的房地產就是泰坦尼克號，馬上就要撞到前面的冰山。

'After hitting the iceberg, the risks will not only be in the real estate sector. The bigger risk will be in the financial sector,' he added.

他還說，撞到之後，不但是房地產行業的風險，更大的是金融行業的風險。

He said serious problems lie with financial products like trust and wealth management products, as well as entrusted loans that charge higher interest rates than banks and are key financing vehicles for the property sector.

他說，信託、第三方理財、委託存款等金融產品存在嚴重問題，這些產品利率都很高，是房地產行業的主要融資渠道。

'When housing prices fall 20% to 30%, these problems will be all exposed, ' he was quoted as saying.

報道援引潘石屹的話說，當房價下跌20%-30%，這些問題就全部暴露出來了。

Soho China declined to comment about Mr. Pan's remarks. But in a post on his verified Weibo account Monday, Mr. Pan said that during the forum's question and answer session, he had first asked whether there were any journalists present before replying to a question about the housing market. Only upon being told there were no reporters present, he said, did he proceed to answer.

SOHO中國拒絕就潘石屹的表態置評。但週一潘石屹在他的微博認證帳號中表示，在座談的提問環節，第一個問題是房價，回答問題前他問在座的是否有記者。他說，當得到沒有記者的答覆後，他纔開始回答問題。

'I didn't expect there are countless reporters hiding [in the audience], ' he said.

他說，沒想到有無數記者潛伏着。

Soho has been putting at least some of its money where Mr. Pan's mouth is -- that is, by taking it out of the local property market.

一直以來，SOHO中國至少是用自己的部分資金踐行潘石屹上述觀點的，也就是說，該公司將部分資金撤出國內房地產市場。

In February, Soho China, run by Mr. Pan and his wife Zhang Xin, announced plans to sell all of their interest in Soho Hailun Plaza and Soho Jing'an Plaza in Shanghai for about 5.23 billion yuan ($853 million) to Financial Street Holdings, a Shenzhen-listed property developer.

今年2月份，由潘石屹和他的妻子張欣運營的SOHO中國宣佈，計劃將他們在上海SOHO海倫廣場和靜安廣場的所有權益以大約人民幣52.3億元（合8.53億美元）出售給深圳上市的房地產開發商金融街控股股份有限公司(Financial Street Holding Co., 簡稱：金融街)。

It isn't all bad news though for China's property market, and help may be on the way.

不過中國房地產市場面對的並非全都是壞消息，政府也許很快會出手相助。

The central bank has instructed commercial banks to make mortgage lending a priority. Likewise, some local governments have taken steps to ease their curbs on home purchases, which were put in place when prices seemed to be soaring out of reach for most of China's 1.3 billion people. They've also eased restrictions on residency requirements and in some cases have rolled back curbs on buying a second or third home.

中國央行已經要求商業銀行把房貸作爲首要任務來抓。一些地方政府也採取了措施放寬對消費者的購房限制。之前中國的房價一度飆升到中國13億人口中的絕大多數都似乎承受不起的水平，這促使各地政府相繼出臺了樓市調控措施。一些地方政府還放寬了對購房的戶口要求，某些地方政府還取消了對購買二套、三套房的限制。

But these measures have been relatively modest so far and Beijing has not given the market a clear signal it can go back to its old speculative ways.

但到目前爲止，給樓市鬆綁的一些措施力度還是相對較小的，因爲北京並未向市場發出可以回到投機老路的明確信號。

Though Mr. Pan didn't comment on the government's moves to soften property curbs, he did say he believes many forces -- including plans for a nationwide property registry, an expanded use of the property tax and more land for development as a result of rural land reform -- will help drive the market lower.

雖然潘石屹沒有對政府放寬樓市調控的舉措發表評論，但他說，他相信許多因素將推動市場走低，包括國家出臺不動產統一登記條例的計劃、房產稅徵收的範圍擴大、農業土地改革使得土地供應量增加。

'I am not optimistic about China's property prices,' he said.

潘石屹說，他對於中國的房價不看好。

If a property specialist like Mr. Pan thinks the market is close to a Titantic moment, perhaps it's a good idea for buyers to stay close to the life boats.

如果潘石屹這樣的房地產專家都認爲市場已經像即將撞上冰山的泰坦尼克，那麼購房者呆在靠近救生船的地方或許是個好主意。