報告預測 2055年全球近半數工作可被機器人替代
About half of the work carried out by people has the potential to be automated by 2055 with adaptions to technology, a McKinsey Global Institute report predicted.
麥肯錫全球研究院近日發佈的一份報告預測，到2055年，約半數人工工作可能通過採用技術而實現自動化。That would amount to $11.9 trillion in wages lost, with China and India accounting for the largest potential employment impact.
這相當於減少11.9萬億美元的薪酬，中國和印度可能受到的就業影響最大。The report, entitled "A future that works: automation, employment and productivity", analyzes the automation potential of the global economy, covering all sectors in more than 50 countries.
這份題爲《未來產業：自動化、就業與生產力》的報告分析了全球經濟的自動化潛力，覆蓋50多國的各個領域。
At a time of lackluster productivity growth worldwide, automation technologies including robotics, artificial intelligence and machine learning can give a much-needed boost to economic growth, according to Joe Ngai, managing director of McKinsey's Hong Kong office.
麥肯錫香港分公司總經理倪以理表示，在全球生產力增長乏力之際，機械人技術、人工智能、機器學習等自動化技術可爲經濟增長注入強心針。He expects automation could raise productivity growth globally by 0.8 percent to 1.4 percent.
他預計自動化可將全球生產力提升0.8%至1.4%。
At a global level, technically automatable activities touch the equivalent of 1.1 billion employees and 11.9 trillion U.S. dollars in wages, according to the report.
報告指出，全球範圍來看，可自動化的工作內容涉及相當於11億名員工及11.9兆美元的薪酬。The report also showed that activities most susceptible to automation are physical ones in highly structured and predictable environments, as well as data collection and processing, mostly reflected in manufacturing, accommodation and retail trade.
報告還顯示，最易受到自動化影響的工作包括高度結構化及可預測環境中的體力勞動，以及數據收集和處理工作，常見於製造業、酒店業、零售業。Ngai said the robots and computers can not only perform a range of routine physical work activities better and more cheaply than humans, but are also increasingly capable of accomplishing activities that include cognitive capabilities once considered too difficult to automate successfully, such as sensing emotion or driving.
倪以理表示，機器人與電腦目前不僅能更有效率地從事各種體力勞動的工作，還能完成更多過去難以被自動化、需要認知能力的工作，例如認知判斷、情緒反應及自動駕駛等。If full or partial automation results in a significant reduction in employment or pressure on wages, some ideas such as negative income taxes, universal basic income, conditional transfers and adapted social safety nets could be considered by the governments, Ngai said.
他表示，如果自動化導致就業機會大幅減少或薪資壓力，政府可考慮補貼所得稅、統一基本薪酬、有條件轉業及調整社會安全網等措施。
