李開復：15年內，全球半數工作將被人工智能取代
人工智能取代人類工作的預言早已不新鮮，而且正在變成現實。近日，中國人工智能專家李開復警告說，未來15年內世界上一半的工作將因爲人工智能而消失。李開復還建議父母們鼓勵孩子放手去做自己最想做的事情，讓孩子們學會溝通，這樣才能在人工智能時代更好地生存下去。
Half of current jobs will be taken over by AI within 15 years, China's leading AI expert has warned.
中國頂級人工智能專家李開復警告說，15年內人工智能將奪走人類現在一半的工作。
Kai-Fu Lee, the author of bestselling book AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order, told the world of employments was facing a crisis 'akin to that faced by farmers during the industrial revolution.'
暢銷書《人工智能超級大國：中國、硅谷和新世界秩序》的作者李開復告訴每日郵報網站說，全世界的職業都面臨着一場危機，嚴重程度“堪比工業革命時期農民所遭受的威脅”。
akin[ə'kɪn]: adj. 類似的
'People aren't really fully aware of the effect AI will have on their jobs,' he said.
他說：“人們還沒有充分意識到人工智能會對自己的工作產生什麼影響。”
Lee, who is a VC in China and once headed up Google in the region, has over 30 years of experience in AI.
李開復是中國的一位風險投資人，曾經是谷歌在中國的主管，在人工智能方面有超過30年的經驗。
VC['vi 'si]: 風險投資（venture capital）
He believe it is imperative to 'warn people there is displacement coming, and to tell them how they can start retraining.'
他認爲非常有必要“警告人們將會有替代自己的機器人出現，並告訴人們如何開始重新接受培訓。”
人工智能最先取代的十個職業：
1. Sales and Marketing Research 銷售和市場調研人員
2. Insurance adjuster 保險公司算理員
3. Security guards 保安
4. Truck drivers 卡車司機
5. Consumer loan underwriter 消費者貸款擔保人
6. Financial and sports journalists 金融和體育記者
7. Bookkeepers & Financial Analysts 簿記員和財務分析師
8. Fruit pickers 水果採摘工人
9. Investment professionals 職業投資人
10. Radiologist 放射科醫師
Luckily, he said all is not lost for humanity.
李開復指出，幸運的是，人類並不會無事可做。
'AI is powerful and adaptable, but it can't do everything that humans do.'
“人工智能既強大又善於應變，但不能勝任人類的一切工作。”
Lee believe AI cannot create, conceptualize, or do complex strategic planning, or undertake complex work that requires precise hand-eye coordination.
李開復認爲，人工智能不能創造、概念化，也不能做複雜的戰略規劃，或承擔需要精細的手眼協調的複雜工作。
He also says it is poor at dealing with unknown and unstructured spaces.
他還表示，人工智能不善於應對未知和缺乏結構的空間。
Crucially, he says AI cannot interact with humans 'exactly like humans', with empathy, human-human connection, and compassion.
他說，最關鍵的是，人工智能無法“完全像人類那樣”與人互動，缺乏同理心、同情心，無法進行人與人之間的心靈溝通。
Psychiatrists, social workers and marriage counselors are unlikely to lose their jobs, along with nurses, AI researchers and scientists, he believes.
李開復認爲，精神病醫生、社會工作者、婚姻顧問，以及護士、人工智能研究人員和科學家都不容易失業。
人工智能無法取代的十個職業：
1. Psychiatrists 精神病醫生
2. Therapists 治療師
3. Medical caregivers 醫護人員
4. AI researchers and engineers 人工智能研究員和工程師
5. Fiction writers 小說作家
6. Teachers 教師
7. Criminal defense attorney 刑事辯護律師
8. Computer Scientists & Engineers 計算機科學家和工程師
9. Scientists 科學家
10. Managers (actually leaders) 經理（領導）
Photo by Owen Beard on Unsplash
However, some jobs will disappear- and quickly.
但是，有些職業卻會消失，而且很快就會消失。
Most at risk are telemarketers and telesales people, Lee said, pointing to Google's controversial AI bot system that can fool humans as an example of the future.
李開復說，失業風險最大的是電話推銷員，他指出，谷歌備受爭議的以假亂真的人工智能機器人系統就是未來的一個例證。
'You've probably already received robo-calls, but future calls will be more natural,' he says.
他說：“你很可能已經接到過機器人的電話，但未來的機器人通話聲音將會更加自然。”
'AI can use customer profiles, past purchases, and emotional recognition to find ways to appeal to them - even using a soothing female voice or a persuasive male voice.'
“人工智能可以通過客戶資料、歷史購買記錄和情感識別來尋求吸引客戶的方式，它們甚至可以根據情況採用舒緩的女性聲音或有說服力的男性聲音。”
Lee also said customer support, warehouse workers and telephone operators are at risk.
李開復還提到，客服人員、倉管人員和接線員也是高風險職業。
人工智能時代的十個“高危職業”：
1. Telemarketer / telesales' 電話推銷員
2. Customer support 客服人員
3. Warehouse workers 倉管人員
4. Clerks and operational staff 辦事員和操作人員
5. Telephone operators 接線員
6. Teller/cashier 出納員/收銀員
7. Fast food workers 快餐店員
8. Dish washers 洗碗工
9. Assembly line inspector 生產線質檢員
10. Couriers 快遞員
Photo by Andy Kelly on Unsplash
The key to jobs in the future will be empathy, he said.
他說，未來職業的關鍵將是同理心。
'Human to human interaction is safe, providing comfort and satisfaction is safe.
“涉及人與人的互動，提供舒適和滿足感的職業是安全的。”
He also warned education will also have to change dramatically to encourage a new way of thinking, making people 'more individualistic, and more empathetic'.
李開復還警告說，教育還必須經歷巨大的變革，以鼓勵新的思維方式，讓人們變得“更有個性，更具同理心。”
'We also need to focus on what children want to do and show particular passion and talent for something, we need to encourage them to go for it.
“我們還需要關注孩子們想做的、特別感興趣和有天分的事情，並鼓勵他們放手去做。”
'Super talent in children will be found earlier.
“孩子身上的過人才華將會更早被發現。”
'Parents need to know whatever they thought was right, is probably wrong.
“父母需要知道，但凡自己所認爲正確的事情，很可能是錯誤的。”
'You need to let your kids go after what they love, and encourage them.
“你需要讓你的孩子去追求自己所熱愛的事情，並鼓勵孩子。”
'Make sure they spend a lot of time understanding why it is important to help people, and why communication skills are important - don't play on the phone all the time.'
“一定要讓他們花時間去理解爲什麼幫助別人很重要，爲什麼溝通技能很重要，而不要成天玩手機。”
He also warned many millennials will need to re-balance their life to focus on social skills - but is confident they will be able to adapt.
他還警告許多千禧一代的人要調整自己的生活，更多地注重社交技巧，但他相信人們會適應的。
從今天起，思考怎樣做一個不會被機器人取代的人吧！
