迎接中國的挑戰

The U.S., Japan and India on Monday held their first trilateral security meeting to discuss security issues in East Asia, and the Washington event is set to be the start of a trend. Beijing is predictably unhappy about this convergence of the world's superpower, the second-largest economy in Asia, and the other large developing country. But China must prepare itself for more such meetings, because China's own actions are bringing them about.

美國、日本和印度12月19日舉行它們之間的第一場三邊安全會議，討論東亞安全問題。這場在華盛頓舉行的會談很有可能成爲一種趨勢的開端。看到世界超級大國、亞洲第二大經濟體和另外一個大型發展中國家一起碰頭，北京的不高興是可以預料的。但中國必須爲更多這類會議的召開做好準備，因爲是中國自己的行爲促成了這些會議。

Technically, China's rise did not feature at the meeting. Security of sea lanes of communication, coordination of humanitarian assistance and global terrorism were the focus. But China was the unspoken subtext. After all, one of the biggest threats to free navigation in Asia is China's growing assertiveness in pursuing unreasonable territorial claims in the South China Sea and in various island disputes with Japan. A pressing humanitarian problem is North Korea, a totalitarian state sustained by Beijing's patronage. India faces a serious terrorism threat from Pakistan, another friend of China.

嚴格地講，中國的崛起並不是會談的內容。海上航道的安全，人道援助的協調和全球恐怖主義纔是焦點。但中國是沒有說出來的潛臺詞。畢竟亞洲航行自由面臨的最大威脅之一，就是中國在南中國海（中國稱南海）的領土主張以及在跟日本的多起島嶼爭端方面態度日益強硬。朝鮮是一個迫在眉睫的人道主義問題，其獨裁政府是在北京的支持下維持着的。印度面臨着來自巴基斯坦的嚴重恐怖主義威脅，而巴基斯坦也是中國的朋友。

The question facing the three powers that met in Washington is how to manage these concerns. Traditionally the American presence in the region on its own has been a strong guarantor of stability. But economic constraints back home increasingly will force the U.S. to seek a new arrangement. This is likely to include reliance on regional allies to carry more of the security burden, as is the case with America's North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies in Europe.

這三個大國面臨的問題就在於怎樣處理這些讓它們擔憂的情況。過去，美國在亞洲地區的存在本身就是穩定的強力保證。但國內的經濟制約將越來越多地迫使美國尋找一種新的安排，可能包括依靠地區內的盟友肩負更多的安全擔子，就像讓美國在歐洲的北約(NATO)盟友肩負更多擔子一樣。

In line with this strategy, Washington has encouraged a greater role for India in East and Southeast Asia. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, during her visit to India earlier this year, asked India 'not just to look east, but to engage east and act east as well.' India has responded with a renewed focus on its Look East Policy, which has evolved from economic and trade linkages to a gradual strengthening of security ties.

根據這一策略，華盛頓曾鼓勵印度在東亞和東南亞扮演更大角色。國務卿克林頓(Hillary Clinton)今年早些時候訪問印度時，要求印度不要只是朝着東邊看，還要跟東邊打交道，在東邊行動。印度的迴應是重新關注於它的“東向政策”(Look East Policy)，這一政策已經從經濟貿易聯繫演變爲安全關係的逐漸加強。

India's ties with Japan, in particular, have been gaining momentum thanks to growing enthusiasm in both New Delhi and Tokyo. India's booming economy makes it an attractive economic partner for Japan as the latter tries to overcome long years of stagnation. Japan also is reassessing its traditionally passive security stance and looking for opportunities to play a greater role while staying within the bounds of its non-aggression commitments. Of all Japan's neighbors, India seems most willing to acknowledge Japan's central role in guaranteeing Asian security.

尤其值得一提的是，印度與日本的關係已經在發力。這得益於新德里和東京兩方面越來越大的熱情。印度經濟繁榮，使它成爲日本在努力克服多年經濟停滯的過程中，一個有吸引力的經濟合作伙伴。日本也在重估過去消極的安全立場，尋找機會在不違背不侵犯承諾的情況下扮演更大角色。在日本所有鄰國當中，印度似乎最願意承認日本對於保障亞洲安全的中心角色。

Moreover, a new generation of political leaders in India and Japan view each other with fresh eyes, allowing for a break from past suspicion. China has inadvertently hastened this process along. Both India and Japan are well aware of China's not so subtle attempts at preventing their rise. It is most clearly reflected in China's opposition to the expansion of the United Nations Security Council to include India and Japan as permanent members.

另外，印度和日本新一代政治領導人用新的眼光打量對方，使得雙方能夠告別過去的相互懷疑。中國在無意之中加快了這一進程。印度和日本都非常清楚，中國爲阻止它們崛起都做了哪些不那麼隱蔽的嘗試。中國這種意圖最明顯的體現，是它反對印度和日本在聯合國安理會的擴大過程中成爲常任理事國。
This has set the stage for this week's meeting. It was an opportunity for Japan and India to further cement their bilateral ties while also discussing ways to coordinate security efforts with the U.S. While no major initiatives resulted (none were expected), there was some progress on joint naval exercises.

這一切爲上週的會議佈置了舞臺。對於日本和印度來說，會議是進一步加強雙邊關係，同時討論怎樣同美國協調安全行動的一個機會。會談沒有產生重要的行動計劃（本來也不在預料之中），但在聯合海軍演習方面取得了一定的進展。

Nor is this the only trilateral meeting on the horizon. There are growing calls for another initiative involving the U.S., Australia and India. There is a distinct convergence of interests among these three countries across of a range of issues including the security of global commons, maritime security and counterterrorism. Trilateral coordination would be the next logical step.

放眼將來，這也不會是唯一的一場三邊會談。越來越多的人在呼籲美國、澳大利亞和印度舉行三邊會談。這三個國家在一系列議題上有着獨特的共同利益，這些議題包括全球公域安全、海上安全和反恐怖主義。三邊協調將是理所當然的下一步。

The parties are closer than at any recent time to such an arrangement. Australia's Labor government last month reversed a decades-old ban on uranium sales to India. Australia and India are ramping up their defense ties with a joint approach in tackling piracy, increasing the number of port visits by their naval ships, and a more structured defense dialogue. This is a significant step in overcoming the longstanding neglect, on both sides, of Australia-India relations.

各方比近期任何時候都更加接近於實現這樣一種安排。澳大利亞工黨政府上個月解除了10年來對印度出口鈾的禁令。通過聯合反海盜、增加軍艦到港訪問數量，以及展開更有條理的防務對話，澳大利亞和印度正在加強它們之間的防務關係。這對於雙方克服長期以來對澳印關係的忽視，都是重要的一步。

Meanwhile, Canberra is ramping up its own alliance-building. It has reinvigorated its longstanding alliance with the U.S. by agreeing last month to station 2,500 marines in a U.S. base in northern Australia, and has reached out to Japan for enhanced defense cooperation. It is therefore not surprising that Australia is interested in a U.S.-India-Australia trilateral initiative as it seeks out new partners in the region.

與此同時，堪培拉方面正在強化它自己的結盟行動。上個月，它同意美國在澳大利亞北部一處基地駐紮2,500名海軍陸戰隊士兵，重振它與美國之間長期以來的同盟關係。另外，澳大利亞還向日本示好，希望加強防務合作。難怪澳大利亞在地區內尋找新合作伙伴的時候，產生了發起美-印-澳三邊行動的興趣。

All of this is a worry for China. Beijing has decried the 'Cold War mentality' it claims is evinced by such moves. With respect to a U.S.-Australia-India grouping, Canberra and New Delhi have been quick to publicly downplay the prospect for now, for fear of needlessly antagonizing Beijing. China remains a critical economic partner for all countries in the region. Clearly any trilateral meeting could not feature China as a chief agenda item. The more subtle path followed by this week's U.S.-Japan-India conference is more likely.

這一切都讓中國擔憂。北京方面曾說這些動作體現的是一種“冷戰思維”。在美-澳-印的結盟問題上，堪培拉和新德里方面目前在公開場合都是急於淡化其可能性，因爲它們擔心這樣會沒有必要地激怒北京。中國仍然是地區內所有國家至關重要的經濟夥伴。顯然，如果有三邊會談召開的話，都不能把中國列爲最重要議題之一，而更有可能採用本週美-日-印會議那種更加低調的方式。

But there's no escaping China's own role in bringing about this security realignment. Beijing's expansive maritime sovereignty claims; its aggressive behavior pursuing them; its support for states such as North Korea and Pakistan; and its nontransparent military build-up all raise questions about its willingness to act as a responsible stakeholder in the region. Beijing will have to come to terms with more meetings such as this week's.

但不可否認的是，中國在這種安全關係的重組過程中也發揮了它自己的作用。北京範圍廣泛的海洋主權主張、爲了這些主張而採取的強硬行動、對朝鮮和巴基斯坦等國家的支持，以及不透明的軍力建設，都使人對它是否願意充當地區內負責任的利益相關者產生疑問。北京將需要慢慢接受更多本週這樣的會議召開。