研究：美國簽證收緊只會迫使僱主在海外招工

美國政府進一步限制移民，還不斷收緊簽證政策，並聲稱此舉將爲美國人騰出數十萬個工作崗位。然而恐怕要事與願違了。新研究發現，收緊簽證只會迫使企業在海外招工和設立辦事處。

President Donald Trump has been trying to encourage firms to hire more American workers by increasing restrictions on visas for skilled foreign workers, including by suspending the H-1B visa program in June.

爲了鼓勵企業僱傭更多美國勞動者，特朗普總統一直在不斷收緊外籍技術勞工簽證，包括在六月暫停臨時工作簽證。

But a new study found that blocking out skilled labor actually encourages companies to move jobs abroad, where they can hire locally or more easily obtain a visa. That means more new jobs in countries like Canada, India, and China, not in the US, as president Donald Trump has claimed.

但是一項新研究發現，把技術勞工擋在國門外事實上會鼓勵公司把職位遷至海外，在那裏他們可以在當地招工或者更容易獲得簽證。這意味着在加拿大、印度、中國等國家會產生更多新職位，而不像特朗普總統聲稱的那樣會給美國增加就業機會。

“It’s not that a company really only has two options, which is either hire an immigrant in the US or hire an American in the US,” said Britta Glennon, the National Bureau of Economic Research economist who wrote the study. “They actually have more options than that.”

該研究報告的作者、美國國家經濟研究局的經濟學家布麗塔·格倫農說：“企業並不是只有兩種選擇，要麼在美國僱傭移民，要麼在美國僱傭美國人。實際上他們有更多選擇。”

Glennon looked at data from millions of H1-B applications and multinationals’ employment in foreign countries over a 10-year period to track whether less access to visas changed hiring practices. She found that it did, whether it was because the US lowered its annual visa cap (as it did in 2004,) or because visas became harder to get after US Citizenship and Immigration Services implemented a lottery system to grant them.

格倫農查看了十年間數百萬臨時工作簽證的申請資料和跨國企業海外僱傭情況的追蹤數據，以調查簽證收緊是否改變招聘模式。她發現簽證收緊確實改變了僱傭模式，無論是因爲美國壓低簽證年度配額（2004年曾經這麼做過），還是因爲美國公民及移民局實施了搖號系統後簽證變得更難獲取。

When she looked at the lottery’s effects, for example, she found that for each visa application denied, companies created the equivalent of .3 jobs abroad, at least.

舉例來說，當她查看搖號的影響後，她發現每拒絕一次簽證申請，企業在海外的職位就會增加至少0.3個。

Companies in the tech sector were more likely to hire a foreign worker at their offices outside the US. They were also more likely to place those workers in Canada, which has less restrictive visa policies than the US, as well as India and China, where many of the hires were from.

技術行業的企業更可能在美國境外的辦事處僱傭外國勞動者。他們更可能將這些勞工安置在加拿大，因爲加拿大的簽證政策沒有美國的限制條件那麼多，或者在印度和中國，因爲許多勞工都來自這些國家。

When USCIS denied a visa to a prestigious MBA graduate from China or India, the company trying to hire them would often assign them to an auxiliary office in cities like Vancouver or Toronto.

當美國移民局拒絕了來自中國或印度的名校工商管理碩士研究生的簽證後，試圖僱傭這些人的企業通常會將他們安置在溫哥華或多倫多等城市的下屬辦事處。

Some companies reacted by transferring entire teams or tasks abroad. “They would say, ‘Yeah, we just decided to open up a foreign affiliate in India because we got so tired of this whole process’.” she said.

一些公司的應對之策是將整個團隊或任務遷至海外。她說：“他們會說，‘是的，我們剛決定在印度設立一個駐外辦事處，因爲我們煩透了所有這些流程。’”

She also saw a shift towards job candidates with master’s degrees to increase the chances of getting them a visa—there’s an additional cap of 20,000 for H1-B visas for applicants with advanced degrees.

她還發現僱主們轉而招聘碩士學歷的求職者以增加獲得簽證的機率，因爲高學歷者可以申請額外的2萬個臨時工作簽證配額。

Though Glennon’s analysis focused on past changes to visa policies, her research suggests the same situation is true now that US government restrictions on foreign workers are even tighter.

儘管格倫農的分析主要集中在過去的簽證政策變動上面，但她的研究表明，如今美國政府對外籍勞工的簽證限制更加嚴格，同樣的情況還會發生。

By blocking immigration, the US misses out on other benefits, like new patents, additional foreign investment, and new jobs in highly-skilled fields, Glennon said. Research has also shown immigrants are much more likely to start new companies compared to Americans—nearly half of Fortune 500 firms were founded by an immigrant or a child of one—and are more often “job creators” than “job takers.”

格倫農稱，通過阻止外來移民，美國錯失了其他福利，比如新專利、更多的外國投資和高技能領域的新職位。研究還顯示，相比美國人，移民在美國創業的可能性要大得多——財富500強的公司中近半是由移民或移民後代創辦的——移民往往更多的是“就業創造者”而不是“求職者”。

Glennon said a better policy to help Americans get jobs would be through additional investments in education. “Make sure that Americans have the right set of skills,” she said. “It’s a much more sensible way to go about this than trying to block skilled workers from other countries. The reason why they’re getting hired is because companies can’t find Americans to do those jobs.”

格倫農說，幫助美國人就業的更好政策應該是對教育加大投入。她說：“確保美國人有充分的技能，這個方法相比阻止其他國家的技術勞工進入要合理得多。外籍勞工被僱傭的原因是企業找不到能勝任這些工作的美國人。”