縮水的雙十一 阿里巴巴銷售數據虛高1/4

For e-commerce companies, the amount of business transacted on their sites — often labeled gross merchandise volume or GMV — is a telling sign of whether they’re growing market share.
電商網站的交易量通常被稱爲GMV或商品交易總量，它是電商的市場份額是否增長的一個標誌。

But the measure is not quite so telling when unpaid transactions, returns or cancellations are included – as is the practice for leading firms such as Alibaba, and eBay.
但當諸如阿里巴巴、京東和eBay等行業領頭羊將爲支付訂單、退貨、和取消的訂單也算在內時，這個標誌就不那麼準確了。

That means if customers buy a product and change their minds later, those transactions still may be counted in GMV.
這種做法意味着只要消費者拍下商品，即使後來改變了主意，這些交易仍算在商品交易總量內。

So how much would e-commerce players’ transaction volume be, if returns and cancellations were excluded?
如果去掉退貨和取消訂單，電商的交易量會是多少？

Singles’ Day, China’s version of the U.S.’s Black Friday or Cyber Monday, may offer a clue.
光棍節是中國版的黑色星期五或網絡星期一，它也許能爲這一問題提供線索。

On Singles’ Day last year, about 25% of merchandise purchased online was returned according to industry estimates, says Sandy Shen, an analyst at research firm Gartner Inc. That inflates GMV for China’s e-commerce players by the same amount, she said.
研究機構高德納公司的分析師Sandy Shen指出，業界預估去年光棍節約有25%的在線購物遭到退貨。她表示中國電商的商品交易總量虛高了同樣份額。

Meanwhile, the rate of returns for online transactions in China year-round is about 20%, according to Barclays analyst Alicia Yap.
同時，巴克萊銀行分析師Alica Yap認爲中國網購一年的退貨率約爲20%。

Alibaba, which controls about 80% of China’s online shopping market, says that its returns for Singles’ Day are much lower — a single-digit percentage of total sales. The e-commerce giant doesn’t disclose the percentage of transactions cancelled or returned year round.
佔據約80%中國網購市場的阿里巴巴則表示自己光棍節的退貨率要低得多，不到10%。不過這家電商巨擘並未透露年度退貨和取消訂單的比例。

Neither do other e-commerce companies. And because each company defines GMV a little differently, it’s difficult to compare apples-to-apples across the industry.
其它電商公司也未公佈這方面信息。由於各家公司對商品交易總量的定義有細微的差別，因此很難對業界各家公司做統一比較。

China’s e-commerce players are largely listed in the U.S. and accounting rules there don’t require a standard definition of GMV, said Paul Gillis, an accounting professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management in Beijing.
北大光華管理學院的會計學教授Paul Gillis指出，中國電商公司大多在美國上市，當地的會計法規對商品交易總量的標準定義並無要求。

If the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has reason to believe that e-commerce companies’ numbers are misleading, they may make them disclose more information, according to Gillis.
Gillis認爲，如果美國證券交易管理委員會相信電商的數據有誤導性，它將會要求電商公佈更多數據。

Currently, Chinese e-commerce site Dangdang, known for its book sales, is one of the few to report transaction volume net of returns and cancellations.
以圖書銷售聞名的中國電商網站噹噹網公開除退貨、取消訂單外的銷售額，它是目前爲數不多這樣做的商家之一。

Meanwhile, Amazon doesn’t disclose GMV at all.
與之相比，亞馬遜則選擇完全不公開商品交易總量。

Still, some analysts say the lack of a standard definition for GMV hasn’t been an issue for them.
不過部分分析師認爲商品交易總量缺少標準定義對他們而言並不是問題。

“The difference in size between Alibaba and is very big, so even if they have different definitions of GMV, we can have a rough understanding of their transaction scale,” said Vanessa Zeng, a senior analyst at Forrester Research.
弗雷斯特研究公司的高級分析師Vanessa Zeng 說：“阿里巴巴和京東的規模差距非常巨大，即使他們對商品交易總量的定義不同，我們也能對它們的交易規模有大致的瞭解。”

Hans Tung, managing partner in GGV Capital, a fund manager that invested in Alibaba between 2003 and 2011, said knowing the company’s net transaction volume would be “nice to have,” because returns are a measure of the company’s health compared to other business-to-consumer shopping sites.
紀源資本的合夥人之一，基金管理人Hans Tung曾在2003至2011年間投資阿里巴巴。他認爲，和其它B2C網站相比，退貨量是衡量公司是否健康的一個指標，因此並不一定要了解阿里巴巴的淨交易額。

Yet that might be harder for Alibaba to calculate, according to Tung, who’s also invested individually in Alibaba, because much of the merchandise on the platforms is shipped and sold by third-party sellers. That’s different from e-commerce companies like , which itself ships and sells much of the merchandise available on its site.
做爲一名阿里巴巴的個人投資者，Hans Tung還指出，和亞馬遜等主要依靠自主銷售和發貨的電商不同，阿里巴巴平臺上的大量商品由第三方賣家銷售和發貨，阿里巴巴很難統計退貨量。

GGV also co-invests with Alibaba on new venture opportunities in China and the U.S.
紀源資本和阿里巴巴共同在中美兩國進行風險投資。