年爲什麼還不是可穿戴設備年大綱
As early as 2008, wearable technology—which can range in anything from measuring your heart rate to curating music based on your mood—has been touted as the next big moment in consumer electronics.
早在2008年，從測量心率到根據用戶情緒播放音樂等的一系列可穿戴技術就已經被吹捧爲消費電子產品的下一個重要契機了。
In the wake of the Fitbit and Google’s GOOG 0.26% Glass, a flurry of companies has flooded the market with iterations of sensor-laden armbands, apparel, and eyewear. It’s a buzzy category, but early adopters seem to be waiting for a moment when they are no longerthat guy. (You know. The “Glasshole.”)
緊隨Fitbit和谷歌眼鏡（Google Glass）之後，許多公司開始蜂擁進入這一市場，帶來了許多裝有感應器的臂章、服飾以及眼鏡。這個領域現在炙手可熱，但最早使用這些設備的人們似乎都在等待那個時刻，讓他們不再顯得特立獨行。（你知道的，谷歌眼鏡的粉絲們現在有了個專門的貶義稱呼“Glasshole”。）
But that moment, try as Google might, has yet to come. Some reports have named 2014 as the year when wearable devices will hit the mainstream, but a newer study from L2, a digital research firm, confirms what many have been quietly fighting for: wearables are still not socially acceptable, creating a significant hurdle to further sales.
儘管谷歌已經竭盡所能，那一刻卻依然還未到來。許多報告都聲稱，可穿戴設備將在2014年成爲主流。不過來自數字研究公司L2的最新報告證實了許多人正在默默爲之努力的一件事：可穿戴設備仍然沒有得到社會的廣泛接受，要擴大銷量依舊障礙重重。
According to the study, 75% of consumers are aware of wearable technology (whether as futuristic fashion or new-age tech tool), but only 9% actually have any interest in wearing it. A meager 2% admitted to owning a wearable tech device, most of which consist of fitness trackers and smart watches, according to the study.
調查顯示，75%的顧客都知道可穿戴技術（無論是作爲前衛的時尚潮流，還是新時代的技術工具），但是隻有9%的顧客有興趣使用它們。根據調查，僅有2%的人表示自己擁有可穿戴設備，其中大部分都是健身追蹤器或智能手錶。
Wearables typically fall into three categories: complex devices such as fitness trackers; smart accessories such as smart watches, defined by their ability to run third-party applications; and fully autonomous smart wearables that connect directly to the Internet, such as Google’s Glass headset.
可穿戴設備通常分爲三大類：像健身追蹤器這樣的複雜設備；像智能手錶這樣的智能配件（由於它們可以運行第三方應用）；還有像谷歌眼鏡這樣完全自主、可以直接聯網的智能可穿戴設備。
Estimates vary, but the research firm IDC projects that wearable tech will exceed 19 million units this year—more than triple last year’s sales—and will soar to 111.9 million units by 2018. Credit Suisse values the industry at somewhere between $30 billion and $50 billion in the next two to four years. But before that happens, the nascent market has that pesky wouldn’t-be-caught-dead-wearing-it hurdle to clear.
人們對於可穿戴設備銷量的估計各不相同。研究公司IDC認爲，這類設備今年的銷量將超過1,900萬件量，達到去年的三倍以上。到2018年，它的銷量將會達到1.119億件。瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）預計，在接下來的2-4年中，這個行業的價值將會高達300億至500億美元。不過，在這一切實現之前，這個方興未艾的市場需要擺脫人們對於“穿戴這種設備就是出醜”的成見。
The June announcement of collaboration between Google and fashion designer Diane von Furstenberg to create a new line of Google Glass underscored Silicon Valley’s current strategy to enlist the fashion elite to sanction wearables as de rigueur.
今年六月，谷歌宣佈與時尚設計師黛安o馮o芙絲汀寶合作，攜手推出新款谷歌眼鏡。這個舉措凸顯了硅谷當下的策略：招募時尚精英，賦予可穿戴設備以時尚內涵。
The line of prescriptive frames and sunglasses, named “DVF | Made for Glass,” costs upwards of $1,600. Google has already partnered with Luxottica, the eyewear conglomerate behind Ray-Ban and several high-fashion eyewear offerings such as Prada. It also hired fashion executive Ivy Ross, most recently the chief marketing officer of , to lead its Glass team.
這個系列的特製鏡框和太陽墨鏡以“DVF|爲谷歌眼鏡設計”爲標籤，價格高達1,600美元以上。迄今爲止，谷歌已經和雷朋（Ray-Ban）眼鏡的生產商陸遜梯卡（Luxottica）以及其他幾家提供時尚眼鏡的公司如普拉達（Prada）等展開過合作。它還招募了曾在藝術網站擔任首席市場官的時尚總監艾維o羅斯來領導谷歌眼鏡團隊。
The company is hardly alone in its efforts to woo talent of a different sort. Earlier this year Intel announced a collaboration with the Council of Fashion Designers of America, or CFDA, kicking off a partnership with the high-concept retailer Opening Ceremony to design its smart bracelet. Tory Burch partnered with Fitbit to design pendants and bracelets akin to the Shine Tracker by Misfit Wearables. And Apple AAPL -1.03% has tapped a diverse group of people, including former Burberry chief executive Angela Ahrendts (to lead its retail efforts), former Yves Saint Laurent CEO Paul Deneve, and former Nike NKE -0.71% design director Ben Shaffer.
在牽手其他領域的精英這一點上，谷歌並非獨家。今年早些時候，英特爾（Intel）便宣佈與美國時尚設計師協會（Council of Fashion Designers of America，CFDA）和奢侈品零售商Opening Ceremony合作，設計智能手鐲。時尚品牌湯麗柏琦（Tory Burch）也與Fitbit攜手設計了與可穿戴技術創業公司Misfit Wearables的無線運動跟蹤器Shine Tracker類似的吊墜與手鐲。而蘋果（Apple）也發掘了各行各業的人才，包括博柏利（Burberry）前任首席執行官安吉拉o阿倫德茨（擔任零售主管）、伊夫o聖o洛朗（Yves Saint Laurent）前任首席執行官保羅o丹尼佛以及耐克（Nike）的前任設計主管本o謝弗。
These collaborations signal a moment where the cradle of innovation and the arbiters of fashion are finally embracing one another, says L2 research director Colin Gilbert. Style is not the only missing piece to the wearable puzzle, but it’s something to look forward to, Gilbert says. More than half of the report’s respondents want devices that feel more like jewelry while 62 percent would like more than wrist-worn devices.
L2研究總監科林o吉爾伯特表示，這一系列合作標誌着創新的搖籃與時尚的發源地終於開始牽手。吉爾伯特說，要解決可穿戴領域的難題，缺少的不僅僅是設計這一種要素，但設計確實是這個領域期待的元素。這份報告的調查顯示，超過一半的受訪者希望擁有看上去更像珠寶的可穿戴設備，62%的受訪者更喜歡腕戴式設備。
“Brands that are known for going it alone are partnering with unexpected allies,” Gilbert says. “If you dig into Apple’s investment, the special projects team reads like a who’s who list of some of the best talent in the world coming from every sector imaginable.”
吉爾伯特說：“那些以單打獨鬥聞名的品牌都開始與意想不到的夥伴合作。如果仔細研究蘋果的投資，你會發現這個特殊隊伍的成員名單，看起來就像是世界上能想象到的各行各業中最優秀的人才的名人錄。”
The “cool” factor isn’t the only issue. Security and privacy, particularly around the management of consumer data, remain a concern as the tech industry seeks to bring more of our body parts online. As The Economist notes, the glamour of developing sensors and algorithms for wearables is distracting everyone from glaring missing elements, “standards, interoperability, integration and data management” and “intellectual-property rights and regulatory compliance” among them. All this in an environment where paranoia remains over the National Security Administration’s activities.
要讓產品顯得很“酷”並不是唯一的目的。科技行業如果想讓我們身體的更多部位連上網絡，那麼安全問題和隱私問題，尤其是顧客數據管理問題，依舊需要慎重考慮。正如《經濟學人》（The Economist）所說，蓬勃發展的傳感器的魅力，以及可穿戴設備的算法，分散了人們對於其他要素的關注。這些關鍵的其它要素包括：“標準、互通性、一體化、數據管理”，以及“知識產權、執行標準”。對國家安全局（National Security Administration）而言，這些技術發展都必須以網絡安全爲前提。
Atlas Wearables founder Peter Li says battery technology and user retention are two more obstacles facing the wearables market. Some use cases require significant improvements to battery technology for a compelling experience, he says, and there’s always a balance to be struck between wear time between charges and processing power and features.
可穿戴設備公司Atlas Wearables創始人彼得o李表示，電池技術和用戶的保守是可穿戴市場面臨的兩大障礙。他說，在一些情況下，電池技術需要有足夠大的改進才能實現足以激發用戶興趣的體驗，而在穿戴時間、充電時間、處理能力和產品特點上，各家公司也需要做出平衡。
The pace of innovation has been rapid. Fitbit has released five or six distinct models since the company launched in 2008, and Samsung released three or four variants of the Galaxy Gear in a nine-month period. Sony SNE 0.77% , Pebble, Google, and Facebook’s FB 0.25% Oculus Rift are positioned to follow.
這個領域的創新速度非常快。自從Fitbit於2008年成立以來，各家公司已經發布了五到六個完全不同的產品。三星（Samsung）則在九個月內發佈了可穿戴設備Galaxy Gear的三到四個衍生產品。索尼（Sony）、Pebble、谷歌和Facebook的頭戴式虛擬現實設備Oculus Rift也緊隨其後。
“It’s very easy to see the leaders in the current market are in a fairly tenuous or precarious position right now,” Gilbert says. “That’s evident by how quickly they’re innovating on each new device type.”
吉爾伯特說：“我們很容易看到，在當下的市場中，領頭羊們都處在相當脆弱危險的地位。看看他們在每款新設備上做出創新的速度，我們可以很明顯地發現這一點。”
Interest in wearable technology isn’t limited to technology companies. Mercedes-Benz is porting its mobile experience to a wearable device, while Virgin Atlantic is exploring the customer service aspect of Google Glass on a trial basis. Kenneth Cole is also using Glass as part of a marketing campaign.
對可穿戴技術有興趣的不止是科技公司。梅賽德斯-奔馳（Mercedes-Benz）正在將移動體驗移植到可穿戴設備上，而維珍航空（Virgin Atlantic）正在試驗性地探索谷歌眼鏡在顧客服務上的應用。
Continued experimentation with wearables is important, but the near-term requires a conversation “about whether current wearables, driven by a combination of organic efforts and corporate tech efforts, are really adhering to customer needs and wants or if companies need to explore a different set of partnerships to push wearables beyond early adopters and into the mainstream,” Gilbert says.
吉爾伯特表示，對可穿戴設備的不斷試驗十分重要，但是現在短期內，人們還需要探討一下：“技術的演進以及企業的研發力量共同推動了現有可穿戴產品的發展，但它們是否真的能夠滿足用戶的需求；各公司又是否需要探索不同的合作模式，讓可穿戴設備不僅限於早期使用者的圈子，而是被主流人羣所接受”。
The winter holiday season will help thin the herd, but the true litmus test will be when a company can introduce a wearable that passes the “turnaround test,” Gilbert says—when a person walks a few steps from their front door and decides to turn around to retrieve a forgotten wearable device like they would a forgotten wallet, keys, or phone.
吉爾伯特稱，冬季假期會讓這個領域的熱度降低，但真正的試金石在於各家公司能否開發出可以通過“返回考驗”的可穿戴設備——如果人們已經走出了家門好幾步，依然決定返回去取忘帶了的可穿戴設備，就像他們去取忘掉的錢包、鑰匙、手機一樣，這個設備就成功了。
“Right now the fitness tracker isn’t on that list,” he says, “but the next generation of wearables has the potential to pass that critical milestone.”
他說：“目前爲止，健身追蹤器還不屬於這類產品。但是下一代可穿戴設備有潛力跨越這個至關重要的里程碑。”
