中國經濟動力十足

On 28 February 2016, the Sunday Telegraph published a signed article by Ambassador Liu Xiaoming entitled “The Chinese economy is still full of power”. The full text is as follows:
2016年2月28日，英國主流大報《星期日電訊報》刊登中國駐英國大使劉曉明題爲《中國經濟動力十足》的署名文章。全文如下：

The Chinese Economy Is Still Full of Power
中國經濟動力十足

Liu Xiaoming, Chinese ambassador to the UK
中國駐英國大使 劉曉明

A glass is filled halfway with water. Pessimists would say it’s half empty, while optimists would say it’s half full. The same is true when it comes to the Chinese economy. Quite a few pessimists have been forecasting doom and gloom since the beginning of the year. However, they have failed to see the country’s resilience and the new driving forces that have emerged.
桌上放着半杯水，悲觀者看是半空，樂觀者看則是半滿。對於中國經濟,悲觀者和樂觀者持有完全不同的看法。今年初以來，出現不少悲觀的論調，看空唱衰中國經濟發展前景，這完全忽視了中國經濟的韌性和新動力。

In fact, the recent moderation in China’s growth is the anticipated result of reform measures and regulation. This is therefore the “new normal”: we are seeing slower yet better quality growth helped along by proactive and deeper reforms. Of course, China’s growth rate could easily have exceeded 7 per cent if the energy- and- pollution-intensive industries had been given free rein, or if massive stimulus measures had been applied.

China, however, chose not to opt for this kind of unsustainable growth – because it would come with a huge cost and would sacrifice the long-term development of China and the world.

Instead, China has chosen to focus on the following five key areas: addressing excess capacity, downsizing property inventories, expanding effective supply, helping enterprises reduce cost and guarding against financial risks. This approach, like losing weight, won’t be without its discomforts or pain. But just as perseverance will see one through a diet – to less fat, stronger muscles and a healthier body – so it is with the Chinese economy.
首先，中國經濟增速適當放緩是改革調控的預期結果。中國經濟進入新常態，速度放慢是爲了提高質量，是主動深化改革的結果。如果我們聽任高能耗、高污染的產能繼續擴張，或者採取大規模刺激手段，增長數字完全可能超過7%，甚至更高。但是，中國沒有選擇這種不可持續的增長，因爲這必將付出巨大代價，不利於中國和世界經濟的長遠發展。因此，中國將今年經濟的重點放在了化解過剩產能，減少房地產庫存，擴大有效供給，幫助企業降低成本和防範化解金融風險五個方面。這個過程猶如減肥，過程不會舒適，甚至會有痛苦，但只要堅持，去掉了贅肉，增加了肌肉，身體就會更加健康。

Despite the moderation in growth, the fundamentals of the Chinese economy remain strong. While the stock and foreign exchange markets have their own patterns, the key is to look at the bigger picture. It is true that the 6.9 per cent growth in 2015 was the lowest for China in 25 years. But this was achieved by an economy that is 10 trillion dollars in size. The actual increment is equivalent to the yearly GDP of a medium-sized country and it is larger than the amount generated by double-digit growth years ago.

In other words, against the background of the sluggish world economy, China remains one of the fastest-growing major economies – and it contributes over one quarter of global growth. Consumption now accounts for two thirds of China’s growth and the service sector now makes up more than half of GDP.

China’s solid material foundation, abundant human resources and vast market potential will continue to provide a sound basis and condition for sustained economic growth. The gap between the eastern and western regions, and between the urban and rural areas, indicates ample spaces and untapped potentials for further development. Moreover, the ongoing process of new industrialisation, IT application, urbanisation and agricultural modernisation is generating strong driving forces for growth. China’s fiscal deficit and government debt is also secure and much lower than that of the US, Europe and Japan, leaving enough room for further positive regulation.
第二，中國經濟基本面仍然長期向好。股市和匯市的波動有其自身運行規律，觀察中國經濟關鍵要看基本面。2015年中國經濟增速爲6.9%，雖然增幅爲25年來最小，但這是在10萬億美元高基數之上的增長，增量相當於一箇中等國家全年的國內生產總值，比以前兩位數的增量還要大。這也是在世界經濟增長放緩大背景下的增長，在主要經濟體中名列前茅，對世界經濟增長貢獻率超過1/4。消費對經濟增長的貢獻率已達三分之二，服務業比重超過一半。中國物質基礎雄厚，人力資源豐富，市場空間廣闊，持續增長的良好支撐基礎和條件沒有變。中國東西差距、城鄉差距比較大，意味着發展空間和潛力還相當充分。此外，新型工業化、信息化、城鎮化、農業現代化同步發展正創造強勁的增長動能。中國的財政赤字和政府債務餘額均處於安全線內，遠低於美、歐、日等主要經濟體，爲下一步積極調控留下了較大空間。

Going forward, five new engines will drive forward China’s economy. The first engine is the 13th Five-Year Plan. With its five key development concepts – innovation, balanced growth, a green economy, opening up and inclusive development – this Plan will map out the way for China to get over the “middle-income trap” and join the high-income economies.

The second engine is supply-side reform. Rather than being a copy of Reaganomics or Thatcherism, China’s supply-side reform is a response to the economic “new normal” in China. Its core mechanism is to replace ineffective and low-end supply with effective and high-end supply, which will increase competitiveness.

The third engine is open development. China will continue to improve its domestic business environment in terms of legal, international and business-friendly practices.

The fourth engine is China’s active involvement in global economic governance and in providing public goods. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, officially inaugurated last month, is just one example of this.

The fifth engine is innovation-driven development. China will optimise the allocation of key resources in order to stimulate innovation, to create new demands and new supply, and to give rise to new businesses.
第三，五大新動力將促進中國經濟繼續前行。一是“十三五”規劃確立了創新、協調、綠色、開放、共享五大發展理念，將引領中國跨躍“中等收入陷阱”，進入高收入國家行列。二是“供給側結構性改革”，這並非里根和撒切爾時代“供應學派”的翻版，而是針對中國經濟新常態提出的改革新理念，其核心是減少無效和低端供給，擴大有效和中高端供給，提升競爭力。三是開放發展，中國將完善法治化、國際化和便利化的營商環境。四是積極參與全球經濟治理和公共產品供給。亞投行於今年1月16日正式開業就是一個例證。五是創新驅動發展。中國將通過優化要素配置，激發創新創業活力，釋放新需求，創造新供給，推動新業態蓬勃發展。

Since the financial crisis, China has made an outstanding contribution to global growth. It is widely recognised as the world’s economic powerhouse and has fulfilled its responsibility as a key global player. Make no mistake: that engine is still full of power and will continue to bring opportunities and benefits to the world.

“Although Zhou was an ancient state, it had a reform mission.” This line from a 3000-year-old Chinese work, the Classic of Poetry, best portrays the country’s commitment to reform. Today, reform and innovation remain the source of confidence and strength for China. There is every reason to look to a world-embracing China for steady progress and for a promising economic future.
國際金融危機以來，中國對全球經濟增長的貢獻突出，是名副其實的動力源，體現了大國責任和擔當。展望未來，中國這輛發動機仍然馬力十足，將爲世界各國帶來更多合作機遇和紅利。大約三千年前，中國文化典籍《詩經》寫道：“周雖舊邦，其命維新”。今天，改革和創新依然是我們信心和動力的源泉。我們有足夠的理由相信，中國將在擁抱世界的過程中行穩致遠，中國經濟的發展前景依然精彩可期。