德國經濟引擎熄火 歐元區第二季度經濟深陷停滯

The 18 nations that make up the eurozonefailed to generate economic growth in the second quarter of the year, mostly due to a poor showing in Germany and Italy.

今年第二季度，在德國和意大利經濟表現欠佳的主要影響下，歐元區18個國家的經濟增長集體陷入停滯。

Gross domestic product was flat in the second quarter on a sequential basis, softening from the first quarter’s 0.2% increase, according to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, seasonally adjusted GDP rose 0.7% in the eurozone.

據歐盟統計局（Eurostat）稱，歐元區第二季度GDP走勢連續疲軟，增長速度與第一季度0.2%的增幅相比再度放緩。經季節性因素調整後，歐元區GDP與去年同期相比僅微增0.7%。

The euro zone’s performance is in stark comparison to the results coming out of the U.S., where real gross domestic product jumped 4% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the second quarter.

歐元區的這種表現與美國形成了強烈反差，美國第二季度真實國內GDP經季節性調整後的年增長率爲4%。

The latest data highlight the currency bloc’s continuing problems with high levels of debt and unemployment, and with a financial sector weakened by the euro crisis. Lena Komileva, chief economist with G+ economics, said the Eurozone is on course for a triple-dip recession, pointing to the fact that leading indicators suggest momentum has weakened further since June, not least because the crisis in Ukraine has battered business confidence.

這些最新數據表明，歐元區債務和失業率高企的問題仍較爲突出，同時金融業也因歐元危機的衝擊而尚未恢復元氣。諮詢機構G+ economics的首席經濟學家萊娜•克米列娃表示，歐元區正在經歷三重衰退，並指出各主要指標均表明自六月以來增長動力不斷削弱，尤其是商業界的信心已受到烏克蘭危機的重創。

The data also prepare the ground for another clash between those–such as the German government and the European Central Bank–who think that the root cause of the Eurozone’s weakness is the failure to overhaul outdated public sectors and welfare states, and those such as the French and Italian governments, who claim that demand is being depressed by a fixation with deficit reduction and an exchange rate that is too high. Italy had already announced last week that it slipped back into recession in the first half of this year.

這些數據也將再次引發政府間爭論，一方是德國政府和歐洲央行，他們認爲歐元區經濟不振的根源是各國沒能對陳舊的公共部門和福利國家開展大刀闊斧的改革，而另一方則是法國和意大利政府，他們宣稱歐元區需求之所以受到抑制，是因爲各國着力削減赤字，同時匯率過高。上週意大利就已宣佈，今年上半年該國再度陷入經濟衰退。

Immediately after France reported its second straight quarter of zero growth, Finance Minister Michel Sapin abandoned the government’s aim of keeping the budget deficit to only 3.8% of GDP this year, because the growth target of 1% was no longer realistic. He said France had spending “completely under control” and wouldn’t raise taxes to plug any holes in the budget.

就在法國剛剛宣佈第二季度再次陷入零增長後，法國財政部長邁克爾•薩班就表示放棄政府原定的今年預算赤字僅佔GDP 3.8%的目標，因爲全年經濟增長1%的目標已成空中樓閣。他表示，法國已“完全掌控”了支出，且不會通過增加稅收的方式來填補預算漏洞。

“The ECB…must exhaust its possibilities, in line with its mandate, to make the risk of deflation disappear and to bring the euro back to a more favorable level,” Sapin wrote in an op-ed piece in the newspaper Le Monde.

薩班在《世界報》（Le Monde）的一篇專欄文章中寫道：“歐洲央行……必須根據其要求採取所有可能的措施，消除通縮風險，使歐元價值重回良好水平。”

France has already spent a lot of political capital with Germany and others in getting a two-year grace period from Eurozone to bring its budget deficit down to 3% of GDP. Sapin’s announcements Thursday will further test the resolve and patience of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who needs French support to keep up the pressure for reform on countries such as Italy and Greece.

法國在德國和其他成員國身上花了大筆政治資本，從歐元區爭取了爲期兩年的寬限期，旨在將其預算赤字拉回佔GDP 3%的水平。而上週四西班牙發表的聲明則將進一步考驗德國總理默克爾的決心和耐心。現在默克爾需要獲得法國的支持，繼續施壓意大利和希臘實施改革。

Markets bet on Merkel and the ECB being the first to blink, though. Yields on government bonds fell to new record lows as traders bet that the ECB would start buying bonds in a form of ‘quantitative easing’ akin to U.S., U.K. and Japanese ones. The German 10-year yield fell to a new record low of 1.00%, while Italy’s fell to 2.67%. Stocks were also broadly higher, the Euro Stoxx 600 index rising 0.3%. The euro itself rose a quarter of a cent to $1.3403.

但市場在下注默克爾和歐洲央行會很快作出反應。由於投資者確信歐洲央行會採取類似美國、英國和日本央行的“量化寬鬆”政策開始買入政府債券，致使政府債券的收益率跌至歷史新低。比如德國10年期的政府債券收益率已跌至1.00%的歷史新低，而意大利政府債券收益率也跌至2.67%。而股市價格則普遍上漲，歐洲斯托克600指數上漲了0.3%。歐元則小幅上漲了0.25美分至1.3403美元。

“Germany’s disappointing performance should weaken Bundesbank opposition to any further stimulus steps should the ECB majority decide they are necessary later this year,” said Berenberg Bank economist Christian Schulz.

貝倫貝格銀行（Berenberg Bank）的經濟學家克里斯蒂安•舒爾茨表示：“今年下半年如果歐洲央行大部分人認爲有必要採取進一步的刺激政策，德國令人失望的經濟表現就應會促使德國央行不再反對此舉。”

Eurostat gave no breakdown of its GDP estimate, which is only preliminary for now. In Germany, the figures were depressed by the fact that an extraordinarily mild winter allowed more of the year’s construction work to be done in the first quarter, when output rose 0.7%. That made the second look weak by comparison. But statistics office Destatis noted more ominously that weak investment and exports also weighed on the economy. In year-on-year terms, GDP was up 1.2%, adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects.

歐盟統計局並未就GDP預計增長情況展開分析，它目前只是一個初步預測。而在德國，這一數字則受到一個特定情況的拖累，即德國去年反常的暖冬使更多基建工程在今年第一季度完工，基建產出增長了0.7%。這使第二季度的增長相形見絀。但德國統計局則悲觀地指出，投資和出口偏弱也對經濟增長造成了不利影響。同比去年，在經過季節性和日曆因素調整後，德國今年GDP增長了1.2%。

France too, suffered from weakness in exports, which stagnated in the quarter, after rising 0.5% in the previous three months. A raft of French and German companies have complained in their latest earnings reports that the strength of the euro–which spent most of the quarter close to a three-year high against the dollar, had made life more difficult for them.

而法國也深受出口走弱之苦。在一季度增長0.5%後，法國二季度出口增勢完全停滯。大批法國和德國公司在近期收益報告中抱怨稱，強勢的歐元（二季度絕大多數時間對美元匯率都達到三年來最高點）已使他們的生意更加雪上加霜。

Recent news and data have pushed the euro down six cents in the last few weeks, but the currency rose a quarter of a cent against the dollar by mid-afternoon in Europe to $1.3403.

近幾周來，各種消息和數據已讓歐元下跌了六美分，但歐洲時間8月14日下午三點左右，歐元升值0.25美分，匯率達到1：1.3403美元。

Elsewhere, there were occasional bright spots. Spain grew 0.6% and the Netherlands 0.5%, as the effect of collapsed housing bubbles faded them, while Portugal and Slovakia also grew 0.6%.

而其他國家則偶有亮點。西班牙和荷蘭在房地產泡沫破滅後分別實現了0.6%和0.5%的增長，而葡萄牙和斯洛伐克也都增長了0.6%。