經濟賽跑誰更快 對世界經濟增長貢獻最大的國家

On the face of things, forecasts for global economic growth display little of interest. The world economy is expected to expand between 3 and 4 per cent a year until the next decade, a rate within spitting distance of the average pace of global growth over the past 40 years.

表面上看，對全球經濟增長的預測十分無趣。直到2020年，世界經濟預計將以每年3%至4%的速度增長，與過去40年全球經濟增長的平均水平沒多大差別。

Yet boring headlines hide very interesting trends beneath the surface. While growth was centred in the advanced world in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, more recently it has moved to emerging economies, regardless of how much concern there should be about their current fragility.

然而，乏味的標題將非常有趣的趨勢掩蓋在表面之下。全球增長在上世紀70至90年代集中於發達國家，而近些年來已轉移至新興經濟體，不論後者當前的脆弱性應該引起多麼大的擔憂。

According to the International Monetary Fund, of the eight countries expected to contribute most to global economic expansion over the next five years, only the US and South Korea are advanced economies. The US comes third, contributing 10 per cent of total world growth, after China and India, which together are expected to account for 43 per cent.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的數據顯示，在預計未來5年對全球經濟增長貢獻最大的8個國家中，只有美國和韓國是發達經濟體。美國位列第三，對世界總體經濟增長的貢獻爲10%，位列中國和印度之後，後兩國預計將合計貢獻43%。

The world’s wealth might still be predominantly based in the traditional rich countries, but growth is elsewhere as many poorer countries catch up with the rich world. Turkey, for example, is expected to add more growth in dollar terms to the global economy over the next five years than Germany.

全球財富或許仍主要分佈在傳統富裕國家，但隨着許多較貧窮國家趕上富裕世界，經濟增長卻分佈在富裕國家之外。例如，以美元計算，土耳其未來5年對全球經濟的貢獻預計將超過德國。

Emerging economies are disappointing

新興經濟體令人失望

Although poorer countries are more dynamic and are where global growth is located, they have flattered to deceive in recent years, confounding over-optimistic forecasters time after time.

雖然較貧窮國家更具活力而且也是全球經濟增長的所在地，但它們近年來的表現卻名不副實，讓過於樂觀的預測者一次又一次失望。

Every year since 2011, forecasters have started to predict the following year’s likely expansion in buoyant mood only to grow more pessimistic as time passes and data begin to roll in. Not only have forecasts for emerging economy growth persistently deteriorated for every year from 2012 to the latest forecasts for 2016, economists have also learnt from the past. Every year they have been less optimistic than the last, but still been surprised by weaker data.

自2011年以來，預測者每年都在樂觀的心情中開始預測第二年可能的增長，但隨着時間推移及數據的涌現，他們卻變得越來越悲觀。從2012年到對2016年的最新預測，對新興經濟體增長的預測每年都在持續惡化，經濟學家們也從過去吸取了教訓。每一年他們的樂觀都變少，但更加疲弱的數據還是讓他們吃驚。

Economists appear to have made four errors. First, they have extrapolated the remarkable pre-crisis economic growth rates of emerging economies into the present, not noticing that underlying productivity growth has declined as poorer countries have caught up with their richer cousins. Second, they have not taken sufficient notice of a slowing trend of employment growth in emerging markets, making growth harder to achieve.

經濟學家似乎犯了4點錯誤。首先，他們將危機前新興經濟體令人矚目的經濟增長率外推到現在，卻沒有注意到隨着較貧窮國家趕上較富裕的國家，潛在的生產率增長已經放緩。第二，他們沒有充分注意到新興市場就業增長放緩的趨勢，後者使得增長更難以實現。

Third, as these disappointments have come to light, underlying policy weaknesses have surfaced in many countries, such as the corruption scandal involving Brazil’s Petrobras state-owned oil company, which had previously been hidden by rapid expansion. Lastly, with the surprise slower growth has come a sudden drop in commodity prices, particularly hurting those countries dependent on ore, metal and oil exports.

第三，隨着這些令人失望之處的暴露，許多國家潛在的政策漏洞也顯露出來，例如涉及巴西國有的巴西國家石油公司(Petrobras)、此前曾被快速經濟增長所掩蓋的腐敗醜聞。最後，意想不到的經濟增長放緩使得大宗商品價格突然下跌，對那些依賴礦石、金屬及石油出口的國家造成了尤其嚴重的傷害。

Countries that let themselves down

辜負自己期望的國家

Comparing recent expectations for 2015 growth with those three years ago highlights the significant countries with the most disappointing economic performance — those which let themselves down.

將對2015年經濟增長的最新預期與3年前的預測進行對比，可以突顯出那些經濟表現最令人失望的重要國家——那些辜負自己期望的國家。

The most glaring example of unexpected weakness comes from Russia, which was thought to be set fair for persistent growth rates of about 4 per cent. This year the economy will contract by about an equivalent rate, hit hard by falling oil prices and economic sanctions following its military activity in Ukraine.

俄羅斯是發生意外疲軟的最明顯例子，該國曾被認爲一定能夠保持住4%左右的經濟增速。由於受油價下跌以及出兵烏克蘭後遭受經濟制裁的沉重打擊，俄羅斯經濟今年將出現4%左右的萎縮。

Almost as bad has been Brazil, which has declined from poster child of Latin America to a country regarded as having weak fundamentals, corporate scandals and a fragile policy framework. Nigeria and South Africa have also been among the five most disappointing large economies, compared with the expectations set three years ago, again largely because of falls in commodity prices.

巴西表現幾乎同樣糟糕，它已經從拉美的楷模淪爲一個被認爲基本面疲弱、企業醜聞不斷以及政策框架脆弱的國家。與3年前的預測相比，尼日利亞和南非也屬於5個最令人失望的大型經濟體之列，原因同樣是大宗商品價格下跌。

The one vast economy where commodity prices play no role is China, which the government projects to grow at just below 7 per cent this year — though this is contested by some and still well below the 8.5 per cent rate thought possible in 2012.

唯一未受大宗商品價格影響的大型經濟體是中國。中國政府預計今年的增速將略低於7%——儘管這一目標遭到一些人質疑，而且遠低於2012年時預測的8.5%的可能增速。

Nations which exceeded expectations

超出預期的國家

For every laggard, there is a gazelle. Although global growth is slower than hoped three years ago, many of the advanced economies are recovering faster than was expected at the height of the euro crisis, a time when it was feared the rest of the periphery was still vulnerable to a funding strike for their debt.

對應每個落後者，都有一個飛人。儘管全球經濟增速慢於3年前的預期，但許多發達經濟體的復甦速度比歐元危機最嚴峻時的預測要快，當時的擔憂是，歐元區其他外圍國家仍然易於受到債務籌資困難的衝擊。

Spain is the star performer, expected to expand more than 3 per cent this year compared with the 1.5 per cent thought possible three years ago. Germany is also exceeding expectations although its growth rate is still anticipated as being modest this year and below 2 per cent.

西班牙有明星般的表現，預計今年經濟增速將超過3%，而3年前預測的可能增速僅爲1.5%。德國也超出了預期，儘管預測仍認爲其今年的增長將表現平平——低於2%。

The one large emerging economy to be performing better than expected is India. Helped by lower commodity prices and a better macroeconomic policy framework, the Indian economy is now expected to post growth of about 7.5 per cent this year. Its expansion was expected back in 2012 to be almost a percentage point lower.

印度是唯一表現超出預期的大型新興經濟體。受益於大宗商品價格下跌以及較好的宏觀經濟政策框架，印度今年經濟增速有望達到7.5%左右，比2012年時的預測高了近一個百分點。

Generally there are relatively few star performers, explaining the sombre global economic outlook, but the picture remains too strong to be talking yet of a global economic downturn.

通常情況下，經濟表現上的明星國家相對較少，這可以解釋暗淡的全球經濟前景，但整體經濟形勢依然很強健，還未到談論一場全球經濟衰退的時候。