[經濟廣角]中國經濟有望恢復

中國經濟有望恢復

來源: Financial Times

雖然在09年的上半年，中國的經濟曾一度下降至最低點，一位亞洲開發銀行的頂級經濟學家稱亞洲經濟有望從世界經濟低谷中恢復起來。在一則採訪報道中，該人士稱亞洲經濟現在正處於過度時期，並將從逐步走向復甦之路。另外，他還說，在過去的一季度中，中印兩國的倚賴出口的製造業有所回升，經濟增長勢頭進一步轉好。

China recovery hopes gather pace

Despite signs of the bottoming-out （降至最低點）shown in the first half of this year, Asia's recovery from the global economic downturn（開始下降） will be mild and slow, a top economist of the Asian Development Bank (ADB)（亞洲開發銀行） said.

In a group interview with reporters based here, ADB Chief Economist （首席經濟學家）Jong-Wha Lee said Asia is now in a transition period （過渡時期）from the bottom of the crisis to the road of recovery.

But he warned that there are a lot of downsized （縮小尺寸的）risks along the road. "It is going to be long and bumpy（崎嶇的，不平的）," Lee said.

The ADB in March forecasted the economic growth for developing Asia to plunge to 3.4 percent in 2009 and climb up to 6 percent next year.

Lee said countries like China, India and Indonesia continued to show strong growth momentum （勢頭）while manufacturing sectors（製造業） in some other export-dependent（依賴出口的） countries improved over the past quarter.

But he said the unexpected scale of economic deterioration （墮落，衰退）in industrialized （工業化的）countries especially the Europe prolongs （延長，拖延）the recovery of Asian economies.

Lee said now the consensus（一致意見） is that the European economy will contract 4 to 5 percent this year, worse than ADB's projection of 3 percent made in March. The prospect of the U.S. economy largely stays the same while Japan sends mixed signal on its current economic situation.

The chief economist said export remains an important drive of Asia's growth and without the global recovery it will be very difficult for Asia to go back to its sustained growth path.

Lee said while Asia's current mild growth feeds on regional demand, the industrialized world, especially the U.S., remains a key market for Asia's exports.

Aside from the risk posed by a prolonged and deeper recession in the industrialized countries, Lee said the rise in commodity prices（商品價格） and protectionism （保護主義）measures adopted by the developed countries will also affect Asia's recovery.

Keke Vew: Dawn always appears at the end of the dark.