職場大鱷想投資緬甸?請記住越南的教訓

The flavor of the month in emerging markets is a fish-based broth with rice noodles, ginger and lemongrass called mohinga. Myanmar's national dish, it's sure to be on the menu at this week's World Economic Forum event in the former pariah state.

本月，從新興市場飄來的香味是一種被稱爲“魚板面”(mohinga)的緬甸國菜。魚板面以魚湯爲底，加入米粉，再配以生薑和香茅等調料。本週，世界經濟論壇(World Economic Forum)在緬甸這個曾經被孤立的國家召開會議期間，魚板面一定會出現在菜單上。

While Myanmar is a mouthwatering a proposition, gorging on it too soon carries a lot of risk. The country ticks many boxes in terms of potential. Its population of 60 million has almost zero cellphone penetration. It's in a logistical sweet spot between China and India and is rich in natural resources. New laws, including measures to allow 100% foreign ownership of companies in some sectors, show the politicians are open to foreign investment.

雖然緬甸令人垂涎，但過於着急地“狼吞虎嚥”也可能帶來很多風險。緬甸在很多方面都具有潛力。這個人口6,000萬的國家幾乎沒有手機。從物流角度看，該國處於中印之間的絕佳位置，且自然資源豐富。該國出臺的多部新法律表明（比如在緬甸某些地區有法律允許外資對企業100%控股），緬甸政界人士對外國投資呈開放態度。

To say that these are the early days in a frontier economy is an understatement: There is virtually no ATM network and very few commercial bank branches, for instance.

如果你認爲這是一個“拓荒”經濟體的起步階段，那麼你還低估了緬甸的落後：該國幾乎沒有自動櫃員機(ATM)網絡，商業銀行設立的分支機構也少之又少。

Foreigners have duly rushed in to fill a business and economic vacuum. Growth in foreign direct investment is soaring. Executives from giant global corporations in finance, consumer goods, accounting and construction now regularly fill Myanmar's meager hotel space. The cost of real estate in the center of the main business hub, Yangon, is on a par with that of Bangkok, which is far more developed.

不出所料，外國人大量涌入，以填補該國在商業和經濟上的真空。外商直接投資(FDI)的增速飆升。金融、消費品、會計和建築業的跨國大型企業的高管如今常常將緬甸本來就不多的酒店房間住滿。仰光市中心主要商業樞紐的房地產成本已經可以和曼谷比肩，而曼谷要比仰光發達得多。

But investors in Myanmar should heed lessons from Vietnam, which opened up to the world in a similar fashion two decades ago. The failure rate for early investors in that market may have been as high as 90%, says Don Lam, chief executive of Vinacapital, one of Vietnam's largest asset managers.

但進入緬甸的投資者應該注意吸取越南的經驗教訓。20年前越南也曾以類似方式對世界開放。越南最大的資產管理機構之一Vinacapital的首席執行長Don Lam說，進入越南的早期投資者的失敗率可能高達90%。

Too much foreign capital chased too few potential partners or businesses with any track record. Also, there was too much focus on the impact of rising incomes on consumer-goods sales. The outcome, Mr. Lam says, was a lot of investment in risky, green-field projects, or Western-style consumer-goods businesses that didn't have a strong enough customer base for another decade.

目前在緬甸，有太多的外國資本在追逐潛在合作伙伴或企業，而有任何過往記錄可查的企業又太少。另外，對於收入上升對消費品銷售的影響的關注又太多。Don Lam說，這造成的後果就是有大量投資進入風險較大的綠地投資項目或西式消費品企業。這些企業要再過10年纔會擁有足夠強大的客戶基礎。

Foreign investment in Vietnam surged between 1988 and 1995, but began slowing markedly thereafter, partly because high costs and poor infrastructure stymied returns, according to the International Monetary Fund. And while the Asian Financial Crisis squeezed foreign interest across the region in the late 1990s, foreign investment was slower to recover in Vietnam than in neighboring countries, the IMF says.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的數據顯示，1988年至1995年，涌入越南的外國投資數量激增，但95年之後開始明顯放緩。部分原因是高昂的成本和糟糕的基礎設施嚴重影響了投資回報。雖然上世紀90年代末發生的亞洲金融危機降低了外國資本對這一地區的興趣，但IMF的數據顯示，和鄰國相比，外商投資在越南的恢復速度更慢。

Myanmar's potential could attract about $170 billion in capital inflows between now and 2030, McKinsey estimates. A healthy appetite among foreign investors would surely help transform the economy. But those who put money into Myanmar too soon may well find their first taste ultimately turns sour.

麥肯錫(McKinsey)估計，從現在起到2030年之間，緬甸的潛力能夠吸引約1,700億美元的資本流入。外國投資者的強勁胃口肯定有助於緬甸經濟轉型。但那些過快將資金投入緬甸的人很可能會發現他們的嘗試最終令人失望。