大學生紐約聯儲主席首次暗示QE3應減速

One of the Federal Reserve’s biggest backers of easy monetary policy said he supported slowing down the central bank’s asset purchases once the US economy had enough momentum.

美聯儲(Fed)寬鬆貨幣政策的最大支持者之一表示，一旦美國經濟形成足夠的增長勢頭，他將支持美聯儲放緩資產購買計劃的步伐。

The comments by Bill Dudley amount to the first official hint that a reduction in the pace of asset purchase programme, known as QE3, is likely to be slow and may soothe market worries about the impact of reduced purchases by the Fed.

紐約聯儲(New York Fed)主席比爾·達德利(Bill Dudley)的上述言論，相當於官方首次暗示資產購買計劃（即所謂的第三輪量化寬鬆(QE3)）的減速很可能是緩慢的。這番言論可能會平復市場對資產購買計劃減速之影響的擔心。

In a speech yesterday, Bill Dudley, president of the New York Fed, said that the central bank should adjust the speed of its asset purchases, currently $85bn a month, in response to material changes in the outlook for the labour market.

達德利昨日講話稱，美聯儲應調整資產購買計劃的速度（目前爲每月850億美元），以響應勞動力市場前景的實質性變化。

The comments by a prominent dove on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee show that there is a consensus on tapering off the Fed’s third round of quantitative easing.

達德利在負責設定利率的聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)中是個著名的鴿派。他的這番言論表明，美聯儲QE3減速已成共識。

But Mr Dudley said that it was too soon to be sure that the labour market is on the mend because job creation is running ahead of growth in the underlying economy.

但達德利表示，目前說勞動力市場肯定已在好轉還爲時過早，因爲就業創造要領先於整體經濟增長。

“We have seen this movie before,” said Mr Dudley. “When this happened in 2011 and 2012, employment growth subsequently slowed.

“我們以前曾見到過這樣的情況。”他表示，“2011年和2012年，當這種情況出現時，就業增長隨後就放緩了。”

“Because growth this year will be constrained by fiscal consolidation, there is a risk that this could happen again. As a result, it is premature to conclude that we will soon see a substantial improvement in the labour market outlook.”

“今年的經濟增長將受到財政整固的影響，因此這種情況有可能再次出現。所以，現在就下結論說我們將很快看到勞動力市場前景出現實質性改善還爲時過早。”

Mr Dudley’s remarks, made in a speech at the Economic Club of New York, suggest that the Fed is likely to taper QE3 when it sees evidence that the economy is strong enough to maintain the current pace of job growth.

達德利是在紐約經濟俱樂部(Economic Club of New York)演講時發表上述言論的。這番言論顯示，當看到有證據表明經濟強勁到足以維持目前的就業增速時，美聯儲很可能會放慢QE3的速度。

“At some point, I expect that I will see sufficient evidence of economic momentum to cause me to favour gradually dialling back the pace of asset purchases,” he said.

達德利說：“在未來的某一天，我預計我將看到有充分證據表明經濟勢頭良好，從而促使我支持逐漸放慢資產購買計劃的速度。”

“Any subsequent bad news could lead me to favour dialling [asset purchases] back up again,” said Mr Dudley, mirroring a comment by Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, at his recent press conference.

他表示：“隨後若出現任何不利消息，都可能促使我支持再次加快（資產購買計劃）的速度。”達德利的這番話與美聯儲主席本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)在近日新聞發佈會上的言論相一致。