美聯儲副主席對全球增長表示悲觀

The Federal Reserve’s vice-chairman has pointed to weak labour force participation and a soft US housing recovery as two reasons for disappointing global growth, saying this could be a long-term phenomenon.

美聯儲(Fed)副主席斯坦利•費希爾(Stanley Fischer)指出，低迷的勞動參與率以及美國樓市復甦乏力，是全球經濟增長令人失望的兩大原因。他表示這種狀況可能會長期持續。

Stanley Fischer’s comments reflected continuing concern about the economy that has fuelled debate over whether the Fed should move sooner than expected to raise interest rates, despite solid job growth and strong gross domestic product expansion in the US.

費希爾的評論反映了人們對經濟的持續擔憂。正是這種擔憂令人們對如下問題的爭論愈發激烈：考慮到美國就業率和國內生產總值(GDP)的增長都十分強勁，美聯儲是否應該比預期更早地提高利率。

“This pattern of disappointment and downward revision [in growth] sets up the first, and the basic, challenge on the list of issues policy makers face in moving ahead: restoring growth, if that is possible,” Mr Fischer said on Monday in a speech in Stockholm. “It is also possible that the underperformance reflects a more structural longer-term shift in the global economy, with less growth in underlying supply factors.”

週一在斯德哥爾摩的一次講話中，費希爾表示：“這種令人失望的狀況及（對增長率的）向下修正爲決策者帶來了首當其衝的根本性挑戰。除此以外，這些決策者還面臨着恢復增長——如果可能的話——所需解決的其他一系列問題。另外，由於根本性的供給因素的增長率較低，全球經濟的低迷狀況也可能反映了一種更偏向結構性問題的中長期趨勢。”

The US economy has for six straight months added more than 200,000 jobs per month. But the labour force participation rate has remained disappointing, coming in at 62.9 per cent last month.

目前，美國就業崗位已連續第6個月增長超過20萬。不過勞動參與率(labour force participation rate)依然令人失望，上個月只有62.9%。

Mr Fischer said although the reduction in the labour supply reflected demographic changes, such as the ageing population, the “surprising weakness” may also be due to discouraged workers who have stopped looking for a job.

費希爾表示，儘管勞動力供應量的減少反映了老齡化之類的人口變化，“令人吃驚的疲軟程度”可能更由於許多勞動力因喪失信心而不再找工作。

The Fed recently revealed that the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee believed that labour resources were being underutilised and there was more capacity for improvement, which could spur it to wait for more progress in the jobs market before it raises interest rates.

美聯儲最近披露，聯邦公開市場委員會(Federal Open Market Committee)相信，美國勞動力資源並未得到充分開發，還有更多提升空間。這可能會令該委員會等到勞動力市場狀況更加好轉之後才提升利率。

But there is some pressure for the Fed to reconsider its timeline, with Philadelphia Fed president Charles Plosser being the first to dissent this year in favour of tightening policy because of economic progress. Two weeks ago, the US government reported second quarter GDP growth of 4 per cent, a strong showing.

不過，美聯儲還面臨着改變這一計劃的一定壓力。費城聯邦儲備銀行(Philadelphia Fed)行長查爾斯•普洛舍(Charles Plosser)就曾在今年第一個對此提出異議。他表示，出於經濟發展狀況，他更支持收緊貨幣政策。兩週前，據美國政府的報告，美國第二季GDP增長率達到4%，這爲這番表態提供了有力證據。

The housing sector also continued to weigh on the recovery, said Mr Fischer, who echoed the concerns of the Fed’s chairwoman, Janet Yellen. Unlike the vigorous rebound in housing activity that followed previous recessions, tighter credit conditions had led to faltering home construction, he added.

費希爾表示，房地產業也在繼續爲復甦帶來壓力——這番言論再現了此前美聯儲主席詹尼特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)的擔憂。他補充說，與此前幾次經濟衰退後，樓市業務出現強勁反彈不同，較爲緊縮的信貸狀況令眼下的樓盤開工量欲振乏力。

Outside the US, the recoveries of advanced economies had been “well below average”, while performance in emerging markets, especially in Asia, is sharply down. The challenge for policy makers was separating the “cyclical from the structural, the temporary from the permanent,” Mr Fischer said.

而在美國之外，發達經濟體的復甦一直“大大低於平均水平”。與此同時，新興市場的表現也大幅下滑——尤其是亞洲各國。費希爾表示，決策者面臨的挑戰是要將“週期性危機與結構性危機、臨時性危機與永久性危機”區別開來。

“The difficulty in disentangling demand and supply factors makes the job of the monetary policy maker especially hard since it complicates the assessment of the amount of slack, or underutilised productive capacity, in the economy,” he added.

他補充說：“需求與供給因素很難分清楚，從而使貨幣政策決策者的工作尤爲困難，因爲這會增大評估美國產能未充分釋放程度的複雜性。”

Mr Fischer said he believed the Fed’s quantitative easing policy had been largely successful but monetary policy would become more complicated as the central bank considers its future moves, which will affect the Fed’s balance sheet.

費希爾表示，他相信美聯儲的量化寬鬆政策取得了很大成功。然而當美聯儲開始考慮那些會影響其資產負債表的未來舉措時，貨幣政策會變得更加複雜。

He said raising interest rates for excess reserves should “play a central role” in normalising short-term interest rates, while an overnight reverse repo facility could be useful in setting a floor for money market rates.

他表示，提升超額準備金利率應該在短期利率正常化過程中“起到核心作用”，而隔夜逆回購機制則有可能用來爲貨幣市場利率設置下限。

“With these and other possible tools, we will be able to raise rates and maintain them near their targeted level at the appropriate time,” Mr Fischer said.

費希爾表示：“利用以上工具及其他可能工具，我們將有能力提升利率，並在合適的時間內將它們維持在目標利率附近。”