研究表明 高溫讓世界更危險大綱

On excessively hot days, there are more likely to be fatal car accidents and food safety problems, and police officers and government food inspectors tend to do less of their duties, according to a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

根據發表在《美國國家科學院院刊》上的一項研究表明，在過度炎熱的天氣裏，更容易發生致命的車禍和食品安全問題，而且警察和政府食品檢查人員在這樣的天氣履行職責時往往也沒有平日認真。

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology scientists, who analyzed data from across the United States, suggest that if the climate continues to change, by 2050 -- and in another 50 or so years beyond that -- our world may be less safe than it is today.

麻省理工學院的科學家在分析了來自美國各地的數據後認爲，如果氣候繼續變化，到2050年--或是此後再過50年左右--我們的世界可能會比現在更不安全。

"The crux of the idea -- which is that weather affects how we perform our duties and how we go about our daily lives and the risks that we experience -- is indeed simplistic," said Nick Obradovich, co-author of the study and a research scientist at MIT's Media Lab.

這項研究報告的合著者、麻省理工學院傳媒實驗室的尼克·奧布拉多維奇稱：“這個觀點的核心內容--即天氣會影響我們如何履行職責、我們如何進行日常生活以及我們所面臨的風險--確實過於簡單化了。”

What is not at all simple is that he and his colleagues used a "massive amount of data" to understand how temperature affects crucial government work, and this is the "first time, to our knowledge, that's been done."

一點都不簡單的是，他與同事運用了“海量數據”來了解溫度如何影響重要的政府工作，“據我們所知，這還是第一次”。

"Hot temperatures are basically bad for human functioning," Obradovich said.

奧布拉多維奇說：“從根本上說，高溫對人體機能有害。”

This is the case across "a broad suite of things" that scientists have studied: Sleep quality, mood, mental health, risk of suicide and work productivity are all "harmed by hot temperatures."

這是科學家對“一系列廣泛問題”研究之後的結論：睡眠質量、情緒、心理健康、自殺風險和工作效率都會“因高溫受損”。

So, do hot temperatures harm government workers' ability to do their jobs?

那麼，高溫會影響政府工作人員的履職能力嗎？

Obradovich and his colleagues analyzed data from more than 70 million police stops between 2000 and 2017 and more than 500,000 fatal motor vehicle crashes between 2001 and 2015. They also looked at nearly 13 million food safety violations (for restaurants and food production facilities) recorded across more than 4 million inspections between 2012 and 2016.

奧布拉多維奇與同事分析了2000年至2017年間的7000多萬起警察交通攔截案例和2001年至2015年間的50多萬起致命車禍的數據。他們還調查了2012年至2016年間超過400萬次檢查中所記錄的近1300萬起食品安全違規案例（針對餐館和食品生產設備）。

The probability of an inspection being done decreases beyond a maximum temperature of 26° Celsius (nearly 79° Fahrenheit), according to the researchers. Scaled across 750,000 total facilities, approximately 8,000 fewer would be inspected per day in the range of 30° C to 40° C (86° F to 104° F), the authors estimated.

研究人員稱，在最高氣溫達到26攝氏度以上時，開展檢查的可能性會減少。作者估算，當氣溫爲30到40攝氏度時，在75萬臺設備中每天約有8000臺逃過檢查。

The data also showed that when facilities are inspected, "the number of violations a facility has goes up with temperature," Obradovich said; this is probably due to the fact that higher temperatures pose a greater risk to food safety because pathogens, including E. coli and salmonella, replicate faster in warmer temperatures.

奧布拉多維奇表示，數據還顯示，在檢查設備時，“氣溫越高，設備的違規現象就越多”。這可能是因爲氣溫越高，對食品安全構成的風險就越大，因爲大腸桿菌和沙門氏菌等病原體在更高溫度條件下複製得更快。

A similar picture emerged when the researchers examined traffic accidents and policing.

當研究人員調查交通事故和執法時，也出現了類似的情況。

"What you see is that fatal crash incidence goes up in hot temperatures," Obradovich said. Here, an average temperature range of 30° C to 40° C (or 86° F to 104° F) produces an amplified risk of fatal car crashes of half a percentage point, the study finds.

奧布拉多維奇說：“可以看到，在高溫條件下，致命事故的發生率會上升。”研究發現，平均溫度在30到40攝氏度之間會令致命性車禍發生的風險提高0.5個百分點。

"It also goes up in particularly cold temperatures, but you see a sharper increase in the hot temperature range," he said.

他說：“因此，高溫情況下發生致命車禍的可能性更大，而遭遇交通攔檢的可能性更小。”

The results show that police stops decline after a maximum temperature of 29° C (84° F). So in the range of 30° C to 40° C (86° F to 104° F) police stops are reduced by about 1.5%, according to the researchers.

結果顯示，在最高溫度爲29攝氏度的情況下，警察交通攔檢的次數會減少。研究人員稱，在30至40攝氏度範圍內，交通攔檢的次數會減少約1.5%。

In short, the effort made by public safety workers and government regulators declines at the time of greatest risk.

簡而言之，在風險最高的時候，公共安全工作者和政府監管者的履職效力會減少。