身處巔峯的德國能否留住黃金時刻

Germany has a habit of winning the World Cup at symbolic moments. Victory in 1954 – captured in the film, The Miracle of Bern – allowed Germans a moment of pride and redemption after defeat and disgrace in 1945. A second victory in 1974 went to a West Germany whose “economic miracle” had, by then, allowed it to regain its status as one of the world’s most advanced nations. Victory in 1990, just months after the fall of the Berlin Wall, caught the joy and potential of a soon-to-be united Germany.

德國有在具有象徵意義的時刻贏得世界盃的慣例。1954年世界盃奪冠——被拍成電影《伯爾尼的奇蹟》(The Miracle of Bern)——讓德國人在1945年的戰敗和恥辱之後迎來了自豪和救贖的時刻。1974年西德贏得第二次世界盃冠軍，當時該國創造的“經濟奇蹟”已讓其重新成爲全球最發達的國家之一。在“柏林牆”倒塌僅僅數月之後的1990年世界盃上奪冠，則正好趕上了德國即將統一帶來的喜悅和光明前景。

Now, in 2014, Germany has won the World Cup again – and once more at a symbolic moment. The past five years have seen Germany re-emerge as the leading political power in Europe. Britain and France may have the nuclear weapons and permanent membership of the UN Security Council. But the euro-crisis has seen Germany emerge as the undisputed leader of the EU.

現在到了2014年，德國隊在巴西世界盃上再次奪冠，而且又是在具有象徵意義的時刻。德國在過去5年再次成爲歐洲的領導性政治力量。沒錯，英國和法國擁有核武器，而且還是聯合國安理會(UN Security Council)常任理事國。但在歐元危中，德國已經成爲毫無爭議的歐盟(EU)領袖。

Even calling Germany the “dominant power” in Europe would have sounded unsettling a few years ago. But modern Germany has pulled off the unusual trick of being simultaneously powerful and popular. A BBC poll, carried out in 21 nations last year, suggested that Germany was the most admired country in the world.

即便在幾年前，將德國稱爲歐洲的“主導力量”聽起來還令人不安。但現代德國已經掌握了在強大的同時受人歡迎的非凡技巧。英國廣播公司(BBC)去年在21個國家開展的民調顯示，德國是全球最受欽佩的國家。

While Paris feels like a beautiful museum, Rome is crumbling and London is overpriced and overcrowded, Berlin has emerged as a cool city, full of art galleries, clubs and exciting modern architecture from the Reichstag to Potsdamer Platz. It is also a city in which the young can still afford to live.

巴黎像是一個漂亮的博物館，羅馬正分崩離析，倫敦生活成本過高而且人口也過多，而柏林已成爲一個很酷的城市，到處是藝術畫廊、俱樂部，以及從國會大廈(Reichstag)到波茨坦廣場(Potsdamer Platz)等令人興奮的現代建築。柏林還是一座年輕人仍能住得起的城市。

Once again, the German football team captures the mood of the moment. The sides of 1954 and 1974 were resented by some fans for defeating more stylish opponents – in the shape of Hungary and the Netherlands. The victorious German teams of 1974 and 1990 were praised for being “efficient” or “hard-working” – and lampooned for their ludicrous hairstyles. By contrast, the current German side is applauded for its flair and its sportsmanship. It is also the most multicultural team to represent the country in a World Cup final, reflecting the increasing openness of German society. Yet some of the old virtues remain. At its best, the German team does feel like a well-designed machine, with all the parts working together in harmony. It seemed fitting that Mario Götze, the scorer of the winning goal in Rio, is the son of a technology professor – and one of the two players in the team born in a united Germany.

德國國家足球隊再次抓住了這一時刻的情緒。在1954年和1974年的世界盃上，德國隊因擊敗了匈牙利和荷蘭這兩個更爲時尚的對手而遭到一些球迷的憎恨。在1974年和1990年世界盃上奪冠的德國國家隊因“高效”或“勤奮”而受到讚揚，因滑稽可笑的髮型而遭受奚落。相比之下，如今的德國國家隊因才華和運動員精神而備受讚譽。它也是殺入世界盃決賽的最具多元文化的德國球隊，反映出德國社會日益開放。然而，德國隊依然保留了一些古老的美德。處於最佳狀態的德國隊就像是一部精心設計的機器，所有零件都協調地運行。在里約熱內盧攻入致勝一球的馬里奧•格策(Mario Götze)是一位技術教授的兒子，也是在德國統一之後出生的兩名球員之一，這看上去也恰好合適。

But if all that sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Germany is undoubtedly going through a golden moment – on and off the football-field – but there are reasons for fearing that it will prove all too momentary. Political leadership in Europe involves making choices – and those choices will inevitably be unpopular in many quarters. To paraphrase Trotsky on war, while modern Germans may not be interested in power, power is interested in them. So while the country has a positive image in the world at large, where its power is not yet felt, the euro-crisis has seen Germany’s image take a battering in its own European backyard. The Merkel government’s insistence on economic austerity in southern Europe has revived old images of arrogant, unfeeling Germans. Asked which country they least wanted to see lift the World Cup, the Portuguese, Spanish, Greeks, Dutch and English all named Germany in their top two least favourite nations.

但如果這一切聽起來好得令人難以置信，那麼它很有可能就是虛幻的。德國無疑正在經歷黃金時刻（無論是在足球場上還是其他方面），但人們有理由擔心，這將是曇花一現。在歐洲政治中居於領導地位意味着要做出選擇，而那些選擇將不可避免地在許多地方不受歡迎。套用托洛茨基(Trotsky)關於戰爭的名言來說，儘管現代德國人可能對權力不感興趣，但權力對他們感興趣。因此，儘管德國總體上在世界上擁有正面的形象——他們目前還未感覺到德國的影響力——但在歐元危機中，德國的形象在自家的歐洲後院遭受重創。默克爾政府堅持要求歐洲南部國家實行經濟緊縮，喚起人們對德國人傲慢和無情的印象。在被問及最不希望哪個國家捧起大力神杯時，葡萄牙人、西班牙人、希臘人、荷蘭人和英格蘭人全都把德國列爲最不希望的兩個國家之一。

When it comes to Germany’s global role, the country itself remains deeply divided. The row over US spying on Germany has revived a latent anti-Americanism that was very visible during the Bush years. Indignation over snooping is understandable, but – among the German public – it seems to have spilled over into a refusal to choose between Russia and the west. A recent opinion poll, taken before the latest spying row, showed that more Germans think their country should maintain a policy of equal distance between Russia and the western alliance than opt for a pro-west strategy. That attitude alarms Germany’s Atlanticist foreign-policy establishment, as well as its eastern neighbours. German diplomats are worried that their government’s views are out-of-tune with the public they are meant to represent.

就德國在全球的角色來說，德國自身也存在嚴重的分歧。圍繞美國對德國開展間諜活動的爭吵，喚醒了一直潛伏的反美主義——這種反美主義在布什政府期間表現得非常明顯。因遭受竊聽而憤怒是可以理解的，但在德國公衆當中，這種憤怒似乎產生了溢出效應，變成拒絕在俄羅斯和西方之間做出選擇。在最新間諜風波曝光之前所做的一項民調顯示，更多的德國人認爲，德國應該在俄羅斯與西方盟友之間保持不偏不倚政策，而不是選擇親西方戰略。這種態度讓德國持大西洋主義立場的外交政策當局及東部鄰國感到警惕。德國外交官擔心，政府的觀點與他們本應代表的公衆的觀點相悖。

As long as Germany’s economy is humming along as efficiently as its football team, its EU neighbours are likely to be careful and polite about any reservations they might have about Berlin’s foreign policy. However, thoughtful observers within Germany itself are worried that the success of the economy is reliant on a number of advantages that will erode with time.

只要德國經濟像其足球隊一樣高效發展，它的歐盟鄰國就很可能在表達對柏林外交政策的保留意見時，保持謹慎和客氣。然而，德國國內思慮周到的觀察家擔心，德國經濟賴以成功的許多優勢將隨着時間推移而逐漸消失。

Germany has lousy demographics. Its fertility rate of just over 1.3 children per woman means that the country’s population is both ageing and on a downward trajectory. Recent moves to reduce the pension age for some workers will make this problem worse.

德國的人口結構不容樂觀。德國的生育率爲每位婦女生育1.3個孩子，這意味着德國人口正在老化，而且處於下行軌跡。最近德國出臺的降低部分工人退休年齡的舉措將讓問題更加嚴峻。

After years of domestic wage restraint, German workers are understandably pushing for higher pay, But that could erode Germany’s hard-won competitiveness, Meanwhile, German industry may be threatened by its reliance on exporting to austerity-stricken neighbours, even as China’s industrial firms move upmarket and attack the profitable niches that Germany has made its own.

在多年限制國內薪資水平以後，德國工人尋求漲薪是可以理解的，但這可能侵蝕德國來之不易的競爭力，與此同時，德國工業可能因爲依賴於對受緊縮之苦的鄰國的出口而面臨風險，而就在這個時候，中國的工業企業進軍高端市場，並衝擊德國原本佔領的利潤豐厚的利基市場。

Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose quietly impressive leadership has contributed a lot to the positive image of modern Germany, will be well aware of the challenges that lie ahead. But, along with the rest of the nation, victory in Rio allowed her a moment to pause – and relish Germany’s golden moment.

德國總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)低調而令人印象深刻的領導風格對現代德國的正面形象貢獻良多。她將清楚地意識到德國面臨的挑戰。但德國獲得巴西世界盃冠軍，讓她可以和其他德國人一起暫時停下來，享受德國的黃金時刻。