金價大跌: 紙黃金跌停, 黃金牛市恐將告終

Gold prices have suffered their sharpest fall since the 1980s, heightening fears among investors that the precious metal’s decade-long bull run has ended.

黃金價格出現上世紀80年代以來的最大跌幅，凸顯出投資者對長達十年的黃金牛市已經終結的擔憂。

Spot gold prices tumbled more than $100 an ounce – 8.7 per cent – in a few hours yesterday amid a rout in metals markets, while silver fell 11 per cent.

金屬市場週一出現暴跌，金價在幾小時內下跌逾每盎司100美元，跌幅達8.7%，銀價下跌11%。

Faltering European demand and weaker than expected Chinese economic data depressed oil prices, pushing Brent crude down by 3 per cent to $100.02 a barrel, a nine-month low.

歐洲需求減弱，加上中國經濟數據遜於預期，導致布倫特原油價格下挫至每桶100.02美元，爲9個月低位。

Gold’s drop since Friday to a two-year low of $1,355.80 a troy ounce is the sharpest two-day tumble since 1983, when the last gold bull market was unravelling. “This has really tested people’s resolve,” said David Rose, global head of metals trading at HSBC. “People who have said they want to be long are asking ‘How much do we really want gold to be part of our portfolios?’”

上週五以來，金價跌至每盎司1355.80美元的兩年低位，創下1983年以來最大的兩日跌幅——上一輪黃金市場牛市就在那一年崩潰。匯豐(HSBC)金屬交易全球主管戴維•羅斯(David Rose)表示：“這真的考驗人們的決心。那些曾表示想要做多的人開始問道，‘我們到底希望黃金在自己的投資組合中佔據多大比重？’”

Gold has enjoyed a stellar run over the past decade. Prices surged more than sevenfold since 2001 to an all-time high of $1,920 a troy ounce in 2011, as investors turned to the metal as a haven from turmoil in the rest of the financial world.

黃金市場過去10年的表現非常強勁。自2001年以來，金價猛漲7倍以上，2011年衝高至每盎司1920美元的最高紀錄，因爲在金融業其他領域動盪不定之際，投資者大舉吃進黃金，把它作爲一種安全資產。

But as fears over the eurozone debt crisis recede and investors bet on a recovery in the US, sentiment towards gold has suffered. Credit Suisse, Société Générale and Goldman Sachs have all called the end of the bull market in recent months.

但隨着對歐元區危機的擔憂有所減輕，投資者押注美國經濟將會復甦，黃金市場情緒受到了衝擊。近幾個月，瑞信(Credit Suisse)、法國興業銀行(Société Générale)和高盛(Goldman Sachs)都曾表示黃金牛市已終結。

“This is a market that has only got one thing on its mind: get me out [of gold],” said David Govett, head of precious metals at brokerage Marex Spectron.

經紀商Marex Spectron貴金屬業務主管戴維•戈維特(David Govett)表示：“在黃金市場，人們想的只有一件事：賣出（黃金）。”

The collapse in prices will hurt investors with large gold holdings such as John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who made billions betting against the US housing market during the financial crisis.

金價下跌將傷害持有大量黃金的投資者，比如對衝基金經理約翰•保爾森(John Paulson)。金融危機期間，他曾因押注美國住房市場下挫而賺取了數十億美元的利潤。

In addition to Mr Paulson’s $3.1bn holding of shares in a gold exchange traded fund, at the end of last year Mr Paulson’s hedge funds controlled shares in at least nine gold miners worth almost $1.1bn at current prices, according to regulatory filings. More than half of that is in one stock, AngloGold Ashanti, whose shares have dropped 39.5 per cent this year.

相關監管文件顯示，除了保爾森持有的31億美元黃金交易所交易基金(ETF) 股票以外，他旗下對衝基金去年底還持有起碼9家金礦企業的股票，按現價計算價值近11億美元。其中半數以上是英美黃金阿散蒂公司(AngloGold Ashanti)的股票，這隻股票今年已累計下跌39.5%。

John Reade, Paulson and Co partner and gold strategist, said the fund had not changed its long-term thesis on gold, arguing that quantitative easing by central banks would ultimately lead to higher inflation: “Federal governments have been printing money at an unprecedented rate creating demand for gold as an alternative currency. It is this expectation of global paper currency debasement which makes gold an attractive long-term investment.”

Paulson and Co合夥人、黃金策略師約翰•裏德(John Reade)表示，該基金尚未改變投資黃金的長期主題，認爲全球央行的量化寬鬆政策最終將導致通脹上揚：“聯邦政府一直以前所未有的速度印錢，製造市場對黃金作爲一種替代貨幣的需求。市場預計全球紙幣將會貶值，這使黃金成爲一種有吸引力的長期投資。”

More than half Paulson and Co assets are denominated in gold including the great majority of Mr Paulson’s own fortune, according to people familiar with the firm.

知情人士表示，Paulson and Co所持的超過半數資產都與黃金相關，其中也包括保爾森個人的大部分財富。

Bill Gross of Pimco, the bond fund manager, said that gold was a “decent hedge” in February. “OK, so I made a bad call,” he admitted in a tweet yesterday, but added that he “would still buy gold here”.

債券基金經理、太平洋投資管理公司(Pimco)的比爾•格羅斯(Bill Gross)今年2月表示，黃金是一種“相當不錯的保值資產”。他昨日在Twitter上承認，“好吧，我誤判了形勢，”但補充道，他“現在仍會買入黃金”。

In a New Year letter to investors, David Einhorn listed gold as one of his Greenlight fund’s top five holdings along with stock in Apple, Cigna, General Motors and Vodafone. “We took some lumps as gold declined,” he admitted in the letter.

在一封致投資者的信中，大衛•艾因霍恩(David Einhorn)把黃金列爲綠光資本(Greenlight Capital)旗下一隻基金的5大投資之一，其他爲蘋果(Apple)、Cigna、通用汽車(General Motors)和沃達豐(Vodafone)的股票。他在信中承認，“金價下跌讓我們遭到一些打擊。”

The Tudor hedge fund has been betting against the gold price this year, according to people familiar with the situation.

知情人士表示，今年以來，對衝基金圖德(Tudor)一直押注金價將要下跌。

Mr Rose at HSBC said that investors had lost patience with arguments that higher inflation is inevitable: “QE is not inflating the world economies like governments have hoped. Commodities that have had inflation priced into them for a long time are struggling.”

匯豐的羅斯表示，投資者對通脹上揚不可避免的觀點失去了耐心：“量化寬鬆沒有像各國政府希望的那樣，令世界經濟出現通脹。長期在價格上計入通脹的大宗商品處境艱難。”