蘇格蘭走向第二次獨立公投

As the UK slashes and stumbles through the thickets towards Brexit, a familiar shadow has fallen. Scotland, its prickly, unreconciled northern nation, is moving towards another independence referendum four years after the first.

就在英國披荊斬棘、跌跌撞撞地向着退歐前進之際，一個熟悉的陰影已經籠罩下來。時隔4年，蘇格蘭——聯合王國中桀驁不馴的北方王國——正走向第二次獨立公投。

The motive force is June’s vote to quit the EU: 53 per cent in England backed leaving yet 62 per cent of Scots opted to remain. The sense that an unpleasant spasm of English nationalism is forcing Scotland out of the EU has provided the separatist government with an opportunity to demand a re-run of the 2014 referendum.

原動力是6月的英國退歐公投：53%的英格蘭人支持退歐，而62%的蘇格蘭人選擇留歐。英格蘭令人討厭的民族主義發作將迫使蘇格蘭退出歐盟，這種感覺爲獨立派政府提供了要求舉行第二次獨立公投的機會。

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has said that late 2018 would be the obvious time to hold a second vote. She is expected to set out further details at the Scottish National party’s conference this week.

蘇格蘭首席大臣尼古拉?斯特金(Nicola Sturgeon)表示，2018年末將是舉行第二次公投顯而易見的時間（編者注：尼古拉?斯特金週一正式要求舉行第二次蘇格蘭獨立公投）。預計她將在本週蘇格蘭民族黨(Scottish National party)大會上詳述進一步的細節。

Three years ago, the result was closer than many expected, with the pro-UK side winning 55 per cent to 45 per cent. Support for separation rose during that campaign. The nationalists have since swept their opponents aside, taking all but three of Scotland’s Westminster seats and securing a third successive governing term at the devolved administration in Edinburgh. The psephological leap the separatists have to make in a second vote is much less daunting.

3年前那場公投的結果比很多人預想的更懸：55%的人支持留在英國，45%的人反對，前者以微弱差距贏得了公投。在公投前的造勢過程中，獨立運動得到了更多支持。自那之後，蘇格蘭民族黨把對手推上冷板凳，蘇格蘭在英國下議院的席位除3個以外其他全部由蘇格蘭民族黨佔據，同時該黨取得執掌蘇格蘭政府的連續第三個任期。獨立派要在第二次公投中消除的支持率差距，遠沒那麼懸殊了。

Unionists have a further problem: who has the credibility and unifying power to front another “Better Together” campaign? The leaders of the pro-UK movement back in 2014, eminent Westminster Scots such as Alistair Darling, former chancellor, are retired from frontline politics, retain little influence and it feels as if they belong to another age.

統一派還面臨一個問題：誰擁有足夠的威信和凝聚力來領導又一場“在一起更好”(Better Together)運動？在2014年領導留英運動的那些在英國國會任職的傑出蘇格蘭人，如英國前財政大臣阿利斯泰爾?達林(Alistair Darling)，現在都已退出政治前線，影響力所剩無幾，給人感覺彷彿屬於另一個時代。

The Labour party, which dominated Scottish politics for generations, is in a state of collapse. It has been replaced by the SNP as the left-of-centre option for many voters, and at the last devolved election slipped into third place behind the much-ridiculed Scottish Conservatives. Jeremy Corbyn, the UK Labour leader, is as unpopular north of the border as is he is everywhere else, and would hardly add stardust to the case for the union.

曾在數代人時間裏主導蘇格蘭政治的工黨(Labour party)，如今正處於分崩離析的狀態。蘇格蘭民族黨已經取代工黨成爲了很多中左翼選民的選擇。在上一次蘇格蘭議會選舉中，工黨滑至第三位，位於飽受嘲笑的蘇格蘭保守黨(Conservative)之後。英國工黨領袖傑里米?科爾賓(Jeremy Corbyn)在蘇格蘭像在其他任何地方一樣不受歡迎，對統一派說服選民幾乎起不到絲毫幫助。

Nor do the Tories offer much hope. In personality and behaviour, Prime Minister Theresa May is seen, perhaps like her predecessor Margaret Thatcher, as an unsympathetic type by many Scots. Like Mr Corbyn, she could damage more than bolster the campaign. Ruth Davidson, the leader of Scotland’s Conservatives, is popular and energetic but her party does not yet have heft.

保守黨也沒有帶來多大希望。在很多蘇格蘭人看來，特里薩?梅(Theresa May)的性格和舉止顯示，她或許像前一位女首相瑪格麗特?撒切爾(Margaret Thatcher)一樣，是不近人情的那類人。像科爾賓一樣，她對統一運動的破壞可能大於幫助。蘇格蘭保守黨領袖露絲?戴維森(Ruth Davidson)有人氣也有活力，但她的政黨目前還沒有分量。

Given Labour seems determined not to pair up with the Tories as it did during the previous referendum campaign — an association it blames for its electoral decline since — there could be a number of competing unionist campaigns battling for prominence, slinging mud and undermining the greater cause.

考慮到工黨似乎決心不像上一次公投運動那樣與保守黨結盟（工黨認爲正是那次聯盟導致其之後在選舉中節節敗退），可能會有很多相互競爭的統一派造勢活動爭奪地位、互相詆譭、破壞整個統一事業。

If the separatists are to be defeated again, it is likely to be down to the facts. The oil price, central to nationalist boasts about the prospective wealth of an independent Scotland, has plummeted. In 2014, the Scottish government predicted North Sea revenues of between ￡6.8bn and ￡7.5bn in 2016/17. In reality, UK oil and gas generated receipts of effectively zero and are forecast to remain around that level.

如果獨立派會再一次被打敗，原因很可能在於現實情況。石油是蘇格蘭民族主義者所鼓吹的英格蘭獨立後財富前景的核心，而目前油價暴跌。2014年，蘇格蘭政府預計，2016/17年度北海收入在68億英鎊至75億英鎊之間。事實上，英國石油天然氣創造的財政收入實際上爲零，預計未來仍將大致維持這一水平。

Further, the Scottish government’s figures show the public spending deficit has reached almost ￡15bn: 9.5 per cent of gross domestic product, compared with 4 per cent for the UK. The SNP has failed to produce a credible plan for closing this gap. Nor it is yet clear what currency an independent Scotland would adopt, or whether it would be able to remain in the EU or easily reapply for membership.

另外，蘇格蘭政府的數據表明，公共支出赤字達到了近150億英鎊，相當於國內生產總值(GDP)的9.5%，相比之下英國整體的這一比例爲4%。蘇格蘭民族黨沒能拿出縮小這一差距的可信計劃。同樣尚不清楚的是，蘇格蘭獨立後要採用哪種貨幣，獨立後的蘇格蘭是否可以留在歐盟內或輕鬆重新申請加入歐盟。

In these unpredictable times, no one can be sure of the result if Scots go to the polls again. Despite the weight of economic evidence against her, the “take back control” message that delivered Brexit may work just as well for Ms Sturgeon. The UK may yet not see out the decade.

在這種變化莫測的時候，如果蘇格蘭再次舉行公投，沒人能斷定結果。儘管不利於斯特金的經濟證據是實實在在的，但實現了退歐的“拿回控制權”(Take Back Control)口號可能同樣能夠幫助斯特金得償所願。聯合王國可能撐不過這個十年了。

The writer is a political commentator

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