能源存儲不再遙不可及 Energy storage is no longer just hot air
Of the technical advances transforming the energy business, none is potentially more important than storage. Used on a sufficient scale, it could make heat and light available to those living in subsistence conditions and radically alter the world’s energy mix.
在改變能源業的技術進步中，可能沒有哪一項比能源存儲更重要的了。在應用規模足夠大的情況下，這項技術能夠爲那些勉強維生的人提供光和熱，並從根本上改變世界能源結構。
But it is important to demolish two myths. First, the technological advances are not about to transform the energy system to the point where a large proportion of consumers defect from existing distribution systems. Second, it does not require a dramatic breakthrough to become economic.
但駁倒兩個神話很重要。首先，技術進步對能源體系的改變，並不會達到使大部分消費者棄用現有能源輸配體系的地步。其次，我們並不需要取得爆炸式的突破就能使能源存儲技術具備經濟可行性。
On the first, by far the most likely next step is the integration of storage mechanisms into existing grids and other distribution systems in ways that manage peak loads and thus contribute to reducing the necessary generating capacity.
關於前者，最有可能的下一步發展是使能源存儲機制融入現有輸配網和其他輸配系統，以管理高峯負荷，從而有助於減少必要的能源產能。
On the second, the story is one of gradualism. The core technologies are known and are advancing. Some are already commercially competitive; you are probably reading this on a computer that holds power for much longer than was possible only a decade ago. There could well be developments that would change the entire energy system but a eureka moment is not necessary.
關於後者，則要認識到技術進步的漸進性。能源存儲的核心技術已經爲人所知，也正在取得進展。一些技術已經擁有了商業競爭力；你或許正在用一臺電腦閱讀這篇文章，這臺電腦的續航時間要比十年前可能達到的水平長得多。或許會出現一些改變整個能源體系的技術發展，但爆炸性突破並非必不可少。
Moody’s notes battery costs have fallen 50 per cent in the past five years. Lazard reports that industry expects a further significant fall in the next five years; and that, if projections are accurate, “some energy storage technologies may be positioned to displace a significant portion of future gas-fired generation capacity in particular as a replacement for peaking gas turbine facilities”.
據穆迪(Moody’s)報告，過去5年電池的成本下降了50%。Lazard報告，行業人士預計接下來5年電池成本還會進一步顯著下降；並且，如果相關預測是準確的，“一些能源存儲技術可能取代未來相當一部分燃氣發電產能，尤其是取代目前急劇增加的燃氣輪機設備”。
This suggests advances in storage could rapidly overturn established business models. Many of the technologies already have a strong industrial base, which is helping to reduce production costs. Many more are still at an early stage of commercialisation, building on research in universities worldwide.
這表明，能源存儲技術的進步可能迅速推翻即成商業模式。許多存儲技術已經擁有雄厚的工業基礎，這有助於減少生產成本。還有更多存儲技術在世界各地大學的研究基礎上發展，還處於商業化的初期階段。
There are several storage technologies, each with particular applications. Pumped hydro systems enable us to manage the use of flows of water. Batteries can balance power loads and help manage the challenges of energy supplies that are intermittent. There are also uses at the production and at the consumption end of the supply chain.
有幾種能源存儲技術，每一種都有特定的用途。抽水蓄能系統讓我們可以管理對水流的利用。電池能夠平衡能源負荷，有助於處理間斷式的能源供應。還有用於能源生產和能源供應鏈消費端的技術。
Some techniques, such as pumping water, have been used for centuries. Others, such as lithium ion, are not yet commercially viable, but the pace of improvement in costs is impressive.
人們對一些技術的使用長達數個世紀，比如抽水。其他一些技術還不具備商業可行性，但成本改善方面的進展步伐令人印象深刻，比如鋰離子。
Storage can be used with any form of supply, from coal to wind, and for any purpose from transport to heating. It improves efficiency by allowing consumers to use energy when they want rather than only at the moment of production. Economically, the greatest impact and the most significant benefits will accrue to the renewables sector, where a greater proportion of supply is wasted and where intermittency forces users into substantial back-up costs.
能源存儲技術可被用於從煤炭到風能的任何形式的能源供應，也可以用於從交通到供暖的任何目的。通過能源存儲技術，消費者可以在需要的時候使用能源，而非只在能源生產出來的時候使用能源，從而提高能效。經濟上，可再生能源領域受到的影響最大，得到的益處也最多。在該領域，能源供給的浪費比例更大，能源供給的間斷性還迫使用戶承受高昂的備用能源成本。
Technological advances, along with falling costs, promise to make solar the power source of choice in the 21st century. If governments want to decarbonise the economy it is hard to think of a better use for public money and subsidies than researching storage.
技術的進步和成本的下降有望使太陽能成爲21世紀的能源選擇。如果政府希望使經濟脫碳，很難想到有什麼比能源存儲技術研究更適合投入公共資金和補貼了。
The vital point is that storage is growing cheaper at a rate likely to challenge at least part of the existing energy system within five years. The conventional alternatives under threat from this sort of competition start with gas turbines but extend to expensive plans to upgrade transmission lines and distribution systems.
關鍵的一點是，能源存儲技術的成本正在快速降低，或許能在5年內挑戰至少部分現有技術的地位。對於這類競爭，受到威脅的傳統替代方案不僅包括燃氣輪機，還包括傳輸線和輸配體系升級這樣昂貴的方案。
When serious and objective financial institutions start saying such things, investors and companies involved in the old energy economy would be foolish not to take notice of the mounting evidence that storage technology is the next big shift in the energy business.
嚴肅和客觀的金融機構已經開始談論這類事情，越來越多的證據表明能源存儲技術將是能源行業的下一個重大轉變，參與舊能源經濟的投資者和企業如果不注意這一點將是愚蠢的。
