美聯儲難以再次溫和加息 US rate rise harder to justify nine years on

The last time the Federal Reserve raised its target interest rate, the decision did not seem such a big deal. It was June 29, 2006, US inflation was running at 4 per cent, stock markets had been rising unremarkably for 18 months, and everybody knew the rise was coming.

美聯儲(Fed)上次上調目標利率的時候，那次決定似乎算不上什麼大事。那是2006年6月29日，美國的通脹率爲4%，股市已經連續18個月平緩上漲，每個人都知道加息將要到來。

The Fed’s brief communique, in which it removed its customary commitment to raise again at its next meeting, was enough to prompt a big rebound for stock markets.

美聯儲在簡短的公報中移除了將在下次會議上再度加息的慣常承諾，這足夠引發股市的大幅反彈。

This was in the jargon being used ahead of today’s meeting, a “dovish hike” — a rise accompanied by hints it need not be followed by another.

在今天的會議之前使用的術語是一次“溫和的上調”——暗示之後無需再跟隨另一次上調。

It is highly unlikely that a rise this week, after increasingly feverish speculation, would be greeted so calmly. To see why, see how the world has changed in the intervening nine years.

在越來越熱烈的猜測之後，本週如果加息，外界的反應不大可能“溫和”。要想知道原因，就看一看這個世界在中間相隔的9年中發生了什麼變化。

Then, the Fed’s governors reported, with fateful understatement, there was “a gradual cooling of the housing market”. That gradual cooling turned into a crash for housing prices that sparked the deepest credit crisis in almost a century, and an unprecedented monetary stimulus in response. There were plenty of precedents to guide the Fed then; there are few or none now.

上一次，美聯儲理事們報告稱，“房地產市場正在逐漸冷卻”，這種輕描淡寫是致命的。所謂的“逐漸冷卻”變成了房價暴跌，引發了近一個世紀以來最嚴重的信貸危機，以及爲應對危機而進行的規模空前的貨幣刺激計劃。當時美聯儲可以參考很多先例；而現在可供參考的先例很少或者沒有。

US consumer price inflation, double the 2 per cent target then, now stands at 0.2 per cent. Unemployment was lower then than now. These are the two key targets of the Fed’s official mandate, and make a rise far harder to justify now.

當時美國的消費者物價通脹率是2%的目標的兩倍，現在爲0.2%。當時的失業率比現在更低。這是美聯儲獲得加息授權的兩項關鍵目標指標，從它們來看，現在比當時更難找到理由加息。

The commodity “supercycle” has turned since 2006. Over the ensuing two years, oil prices doubled then crashed. They are now a third lower than they were that June. The pressure, if anything, is towards deflation. The effervescent source of growth from emerging markets is now lacking. They have given up their gains, with investors preoccupied by the risk of a slowdown in China.

大宗商品“超級週期”在2006年後發生逆轉。之後的兩年裏，油價先是上漲一倍，然後出現暴跌。現在油價比2006年6月低三分之一。如果說現在有什麼壓力的話，那也是通縮壓力。來自新興市場的充滿活力的增長來源現在處於缺乏狀態。新興市場已經回吐了漲幅，投資者對中國經濟放緩的風險憂心忡忡。

A final issue is that bond markets have changed. Banks’ near-death experience during the crisis, and the subsequent imposition of far heavier regulation, has left the dealers who drive the market for bonds with far less capacity, even as far more debt has been issued to take advantage of persistent lower rates.

最後一個問題是，債券市場發生了改變。銀行在金融危機中徘徊在死亡關口的經歷，以及之後強制施加的嚴格得多的監管，讓推動債券市場的經紀商的能力大幅下降，即使爲了利用持續走低的利率，債券發行量大幅增加。

Swings in bond yields, for little apparent reason, emphasise that a doubling of rates could create a disproportionate reaction as sellers fail to find willing buyers. In such circumstances, the fact of a rate rise could overwhelm any reassuring accompanying message. The last rate rise was “dovish” — achieving the same effect again will be far harder.

債券收益率沒有什麼明顯理由的波動凸顯出，利率翻倍可能引起異常激烈的反應，因爲賣家找不到有意願的買家。在這樣的環境下，加息的事實可能會壓倒任何伴隨的安慰訊息。上次加息是“溫和”的——現在要再次取得同樣的效果，會困難得多。