靠電子商務拯救世界 Internet is a bane for developing economies

Last week, Jack Ma called for a new “e-WTO” with the aim of helping small businesses get on the Internet, as the best hope in the fight against poverty. This appeal came after Alibaba’s largest ever “Singles Day” a week earlier, with almost US$14.3bn of merchandise sold in 24 hours. Alibaba’s social media accounts even reported that Premier Li Keqiang called CEO Jack Ma to wish him a successful day. “Singles Day” is now the world’s largest shopping day,dwarfing even the United States’ “Black Friday.”

不久前，馬雲(Jack Ma)呼籲建立一個新的、旨在幫助小企業利用互聯網的“電子世貿組織”(e-WTO)，並將此作爲消除貧困的最大希望所在。馬雲發出此番呼籲一週之前，阿里巴巴(Alibaba)在“光棍節”(Singles Day)當天24小時內銷售了創歷史新高的近143億美元的商品。阿里巴巴的社交媒體賬戶甚至宣稱，中國總理李克強也致電馬雲，預祝“雙十一”取得成功。“光棍節”如今已成爲世界規模最大的購物狂歡節，甚至連美國的“黑色星期五”(Black Friday)都相形見絀。

These are the latest manifestations of a worrying obsession with e-commerce and the Internet in Asia’s largest economies. In March, Beijing announced its new “Internet Plus” plan to expand Internet connectivity. Premier Li, when describing it, brought up the “mobile Internet”, “cloud computing”, “big data”, “intelligent manufacturing” and the “Internet of Things,” in a manner similar to business leaders in America. Nor is this digital obsession restricted to China. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Mark Zuckerberg at Facebook’s headquarters received as much, if not more, media attention as his address on sustainable development to the United Nations days the almost breathless manner in which business leaders use words like “innovation”, “the sharing economy” and “maker spaces”, it can sometimes be hard to distinguish real analysis from wild speculation when talking about the Internet and e-commerce. The assertion is that digital expansion would allow countries to skip entire stages of development, such as investing in real infrastructure, preventing life-threatening pollution, managing resources carefully, and installing value systems in an increasingly ethically-challenged world. What the focus on e-commerce actually represents is the continued inability of the developing world to free itself from Western ideas about models for economic growth and definitions of modernity.

這是亞洲大型經濟體令人擔憂地醉心於電子商務和互聯網的最新表現。今年3月，中國政府宣佈了新的“互聯網+”(Internet Plus)計劃，目的是擴大網絡連通性。在描繪這一計劃時，李克強總理以近似於美國商界領袖的方式提及了“移動互聯網”、“雲計算”、“大數據”、“智能製造”以及“物聯網”等概念。這種對數字化的癡迷並不僅限於中國。印度總理納倫德拉莫迪(Narendra Modi)在Facebook總部與馬克丠克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)的會面，受到的媒體關注與他在聯合國就可持續發展議題發表演講時一樣多——如果不是更多的話。在談到互聯網與電子商務時，從商業領袖嘴裏不停冒出的“創新”、“分享經濟”和“創客空間”中，有時很難分辨出是真正的分析還是瘋狂的投機。有斷言稱，數字化擴張將使各國能夠將一些發展階段完全跳過——如對實體基礎設施進行投資，防止危及生存的污染，審慎管理資源以及在道德日益遭到挑戰的世界確立價值體系。對電子商務的關注實際上體現出，發展中國家一直不能擺脫西方關於經濟增長模式的理念及對現代性的定義。

The claim that the Internet will fundamentally transform development is unproven and untested. What is clear is that the Internet makes consumption easier, faster and more expansive than ever before. Analysts have thus looked to e-commerce and China’s Internet giants to help “save” China’s economic model from slowing down.

互聯網將從根本上改變發展模式的斷言既未經證實，也未經檢驗。當下明顯的是，互聯網使消費變得比以往任何時候更容易、更快、更無所不包。因此，分析師們開始指望電子商務以及中國的互聯網巨頭幫助“拯救”中國的經濟模式免於陷入增長放緩。

However, this is the last thing China and other developing countries need. The reality is that e-commerce reduces the private costs of consumption, but little, if anything, to reduce its overall social cost. Now, billions of locally-produced products have a massive carbon footprint, as they transported across large distances to faraway customers at a time when we need to be reducing our carbon emissions. In addition, internet retail relies on a growing global addiction to wasteful impulse-buying as driver of its business model —“Singles Day” and “Cyber Monday” are testament to that.

但是，這是中國及其他發展中國家最不需要做的事。現實情況是，電子商務降低了消費行爲的私人成本，但很少、甚至根本沒有減少消費的整體社會成本。如今，正當我們需要減少碳排放之際，數十億計地方製造的產品在跨越千里送到遙遠的消費者手中的同時也產生了巨大的碳足跡。此外，網絡零售依靠全球越來越着迷於浪費性衝動購物作爲此種商業模式的推動力——“雙十一”和“網絡星期一”(Cyber Monday)即爲證明。

Thus, e-commerce increases the divergence between what the individual pays and what society suffers. If one accepts that our economic model thrives on under-pricing goods and services to promote relentless consumption by externalising its true cost (such as greenhouse gases and carbon emissions), then e-commerce, by making goods cheaper, worsens the economy’s market failure. This will only lead to greater costs being placed on the majority due to the external costs central to underpriced consumption. The institutions society depends upon to draw the balance between consumption, protection and conservation—be they governments, watchdogs or international agencies—are put under enormous pressure as production and consumption become far easier and faster through the Internet.

因此，電子商務加劇了個人支出與社會成本之間的不平衡。如果人們接受並認爲，我們的經濟模式要依靠定價偏低的商品與服務實現繁榮，而後者又通過將自身真實成本（如溫室氣體和碳排放）外部化來推動瘋狂消費，那麼電子商務就通過降低商品價格加劇了市場經濟失靈。這隻會讓大多數人被迫承擔更大的成本，因爲價格偏低的消費的核心就是造成外部成本。隨着互聯網使得生產與消費變得更便捷、更迅速，社會所依賴的在消費、環境保護與節約之間保持平衡的機構——不論是政府、監管機構，還是國際機構——均面臨巨大壓力。

The truth is that the ability to access Facebook or Alibaba is simply not a priority for a majority that has yet to fulfil their basic needs. How would “the Internet of Things” lead to real development outcomes for the global poor? How would the majority gain access to the rights of life—food, water, sanitation, healthcare, education—through e-commerce?

事實是，能夠訪問Facebook或阿里巴巴對於大多數仍未滿足自身基本需求的人而言根本不重要。“物聯網”如何爲全球貧困人口帶來真正的發展成果？多數人又如何通過電子商務獲得包括食物、水、衛生、醫療、教育在內的生命權？

Hoping that the Internet, by supposedly unleashing consumption and entrepreneurship, will help the poor is merely another example of wishful economic thinking: where helping those at the top would hopefully trickle down to the poor. Even in the United States, with its decade-long head start in digital connectivity, it has yet to be seen how e-commerce helps the lives of the unemployed and the working classes—if anything, it has taken jobs away. Part of the savings from e-commerce has come at the expense of labour, by providing fewer jobs with less job security and fewer benefits than traditional employment. This is not a model to be repeated in the developing world where millions are looking for a decent job and still lack secure access to basic needs as well as the social safety nets meant to be provided by the state.

期待互聯網——通過所謂釋放消費和創業精神——能幫助窮人只是又一種一廂情願的經濟思維：頂層富人受益的同時可能向窮人下滲一些好處。即使在數字化連接領域領先了10年的美國，也尚未看到電子商務對失業者和工薪階層的生活有什麼幫助——如果說有什麼影響的話，也是奪走了就業機會。電子商務帶來的部分收益是以犧牲勞動者權益爲代價的，因爲其提供的工作崗位比起傳統就業更少，工作保障和收入也更少。這並非發展中世界應該效仿的模式，發展中國家仍有數以百萬計的人口正在尋找體面的工作，仍缺乏滿足基本需求的有保障途徑，而且本應由國家提供的社會保障網也不完善。

To be fair to China, Beijing has yet to reveal the full details of the “Internet Plus” plan or its significance in its future development program. Over the next five years, China is currently predicted to spend about Rmb2tn, or $313bn, on the Internet — a large amount, to be sure, but dwarfed by the Rmb17tn, or $2.6tn, that China will spend on environmental protection.

公平而言，北京方面尚未透露“互聯網+”計劃的全部細節或在其未來發展規劃中的重要性。目前預計中國未來五年將在互聯網領域投入約2萬億元人民幣（合3130億美元）——可以肯定，這是一筆鉅額投入，但與中國將在環境保護上支出的17萬億元人民幣（約合2.6萬億美元）相比就很小了。

However, the risk remains that Chinawill be distracted by a lop-sided view of the economic benefits of e-commerce. This risk is not limited to China. Prime Minister Modi has called for a national fibre optic network and pledged the construction of hundreds of “smart cities.” These goals seem outlandish given the very real development issues that plague India, such as the lack of consistent and adequate access to adequate sanitation and clean water. Funding the pipes that would carry the latter rather than optic cables would certainly make a great deal of sense, yet it is only the investment in Internet connectivity that attracts the attention and interest of politicians and investors.

然而，風險依然存在：關於電子商務經濟效益的片面觀點將分散中國決策者的注意力。這種風險不僅存在於中國。印度總理莫迪曾呼籲建立全國光纖網絡，並宣稱要建設數百個“智能城市”。考慮到困擾印度的衆多現實發展問題——如缺乏衛生設施和清潔水的持續充足供應，這些目標顯得格格不入。顯然，投資於輸送清潔水的管道、而非光纜纔是極爲合理的，然而，只有網絡連接方面的投資才能吸引政界人士和投資者的注意與興趣。

The issues faced by China, Indiaand the developing world have no precedent in human history, and seeking solutions via archaic economic models and technology fads is sheer folly. Their economic development has already led to huge environmental degradation: China’s official news agencies now use the term “doomsday” to describe air pollution.

中印以及整個發展中世界所面臨的問題在人類歷史上沒有先例，通過過時的經濟模型和技術風潮尋求解決方案絕對是愚蠢的。這些國家的經濟發展已經帶來了大範圍的環境退化：中國官方新聞機構如今用“世界末日”一詞來形容國內的空氣污染。

Billions of poor have yet to have their basic needs met, let alone share in prosperity. These are the people that those involved in “maker spaces” or “the sharing economy” conveniently ignore. After all, the poor don’t have anything to share in what so far is an “un-sharing” global economy typified by widening economic disparities. The Internet will surely not solve these problems, and more free-riding consumption is the last thingChina orIndia needs. Using the Internet as a crutch must not distract from the tough work of development.

數十億計的貧困人口仍未能滿足自身的基本需求，更不用說共享繁榮。他們就是被那些參與“創客空間”或“共享經濟”的人輕易忽視的羣體。畢竟，在迄今仍爲“非共享”且發展差距日益擴大的全球經濟中，窮人沒有什麼可供分享。互聯網必然無法解決這些問題，更多的搭便車式消費是中國和印度最不需要的。利用互聯網作爲柺杖不能影響爲發展所要付出的艱難努力。

By extension, China and India must have “dreams” that are bigger than the Internet. They need to take the lead in figuring out a new model of development for the 21stCentury that intelligently leverages science and technology, but without being seduced by musings about e-commerce that mask deep structural flaws of current economic models. Resolving those pressing issues should be the real “innovation” that lies at the heart of any development program.

更進一步而言，中國和印度必須有比擁抱互聯網更大的“夢想”。他們需要帶頭爲21世紀找到一種新的發展模式——智慧地利用科學技術，同時不能因迷戀掩蓋了當前經濟模式深層次結構缺陷的電子商務而誤入歧途。解決這些緊迫問題纔是應該居於所有發展規劃核心的真正“創新”。