新任幕僚長能否穩定白宮秩序

Donald Trump’s decision to further elevate the role of senior US military figures in his administration with the appointment of John Kelly as chief of staff is explicitly aimed at bringing discipline to a White House riven by chaos and infighting.

唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump，上圖右)決定任命約翰?凱利(John Kelly，上圖左)擔任白宮幕僚長，這個進一步提升美國高級軍官在其政府中職位的決定，顯然旨在讓受混亂和內鬥困擾的白宮恢復紀律。

But whether the former marine corps general will impose order to a freewheeling White House where the president is accustomed to making decisions on the basis of little consultation depends in large part on whether he can convince Mr Trump himself to change.

然而，這位前海軍陸戰隊上將是否將讓自由散漫的白宮恢復秩序？這在很大程度上取決於他能否說服特朗普自己做出改變。這位總統已習慣於在幾乎不徵求他人意見的情況下做出決定。

Military figures are trained to take orders from the commander-in-chief rather than challenge him, yet those who know Mr Kelly say he exhibits a plain-speaking authority that should give him a better chance of imposing order than the departing chief of staff, Reince Priebus.

軍官的天職是從這位三軍總司令那裏接受命令，而不是挑戰他，然而那些瞭解凱利的人說，他講話直率，有權威，這應會讓他比其前任雷恩斯?普里巴斯(Reince Priebus)更有可能恢復秩序。

But Chris Whipple, author of 'The Gatekeepers', a book on White House chiefs of staff, said Mr Kelly faced a “Herculean” task in a factionalised environment with rival advisers such as Stephen Bannon and communications chief Anthony Scaramucci enjoying personal channels to the president.

然而，講述白宮歷屆幕僚長故事的《守門人》(The Gatekeepers)一書的作者克里斯?惠普爾(Chris Whipple)表示，凱利面臨“艱鉅”任務，因爲他面臨分裂的環境，互相爭鬥的顧問（例如史蒂夫?班農(Steve Bannon)和白宮通訊聯絡辦公室主任安東尼?斯卡拉穆奇(Anthony Scaramucci)）有着與特朗普交流的私人渠道。

“The most important thing right now is that Kelly has got to be able to tell Trump what he doesn’t want to hear. If he can’t do that then there is a good chance that the Trump presidency is effectively over,” Mr Whipple said.

惠普爾表示：“目前最重要的事情是凱利必須能對特朗普說他不願意聽的話。如果他無法做到這點，那麼特朗普的總統任期很有可能就實際上結束了。”

Mr Priebus saw his authority steadily deteriorate from early in the administration as he failed to ensure that decisions ran via his office. Alongside vice-president Mike Pence, Mr Priebus was the administration’s most prominent interlocutor with Capitol Hill, enjoying close relations with key figures including Paul Ryan, the House speaker.

在特朗普政府中，普里巴斯早就開始目睹自己的權威在不斷削減，因爲他未能確保總統的決定由他的辦公室經手。與副總統邁克?彭斯(Mike Pence)一道，普里巴斯是特朗普政府內部與國會打交道的最主要的對話者，他與包括衆議院議長保羅?瑞安(Paul Ryan)在內的重要人物都有着密切關係。

But with the White House consumed with Russia investigations and the president seemingly incapable of steering a clear policy path, those ties failed to coalesce in any legislative victories — as exemplified by the collapse of healthcare reforms on Thursday. Mr Priebus himself told CNN on Friday night that there was a need to press the “reset button”.

然而，在白宮陷入通俄調查以及特朗普似乎無法繪製一條清晰的政策路線之際，這些關係未能促成任何立法勝利，上週四醫療改革的失敗就證明了這點。上週五夜間，普里巴斯告訴CNN，有必要按下“重置按鈕”。

Mr Kelly, who has served as secretary of homeland security, does not have the same political connections that Mr Priebus was supposed to bring, but Michael Strain, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, said this was not a concern of itself.

凱利此前擔任國土安全部部長，他沒有普里巴斯的政治人脈，但美國智庫美國企業研究所(American Enterprise Institute)的學者邁克爾?斯特蘭(Michael Strain)表示，這並不是問題。

“What is needed is an internal process in the White House and some better co-ordinated strategy with the congressional leadership and individual members,” he said. “A four-star general has a lot of experience managing complex organisations.”

“現在需要的是梳理白宮內部程序，以及拿出與國會領導層及單個議員的更好協調策略，”他表示，“一位四星上將在管理複雜組織方面有豐富經驗。”

Mr Trump, who attended New York Military Academy in his youth, has relied heavily on military figures in constructing his administration, among them James Mattis, his defence secretary, and Lt Gen HR McMaster, his national security adviser.

特朗普曾在青年時期就讀紐約軍事學院(New York Military Academy)，在構建他的內閣時一直嚴重依賴軍界要人，其中包括他的國防部長詹姆斯?馬蒂斯(James Mattis)以及他的國家安全顧問、陸軍中將赫伯特?雷蒙德?麥克馬斯特(HR McMaster)。

The precedents for using a military man as chief of staff are not necessarily auspicious: former general Al Haig was tasked with trying to hold the White House together during the Watergate scandal. He had an even shorter tenure than Mr Priebus under Richard Nixon’s successor, Gerald Ford.

任命軍官擔任白宮幕僚長的先例不一定都是好結果：前將軍亞歷山大?黑格(Al Haig)的使命是讓白宮在水門事件(Watergate)期間團結一心。他在理查德?尼克松(Richard Nixon)繼任者傑拉爾德?福特(Gerald Ford)擔任總統期間的任期甚至比普里巴斯還短。

But the president appears to relish being around current and former four-star generals, and there are some encouraging signs that he is willing to listen to them, said Evelyn Farkas, a former deputy assistant secretary of defence who is now at the Atlantic Council. “Having those guys in there reassures me,” she adds.

然而，前美國國防部副助理部長伊芙琳?法卡斯(Evelyn Farkas)表示，特朗普似乎喜歡身邊圍繞着現任和前任四星上將，一些鼓舞人心的跡象顯示，他願意聽取他們的意見。她補充稱：“有這些人在他身邊我感到放心。”法卡斯目前在美國大西洋理事會(Atlantic Council)任職。

What will make matters particularly difficult for Mr Kelly is the family dynamic in the White House, where he inherits chains of communication that are scrambled by the presence of powerful individuals such as Ivanka Trump and her husband Jared Kushner who are immune from the threat of being fired.

對於凱利而言，讓事情變得尤爲棘手的是白宮的家族干政現象，他接手的溝通網絡遭到一些有勢力的個人插手，例如伊萬卡?特朗普(Ivanka Trump)和她的丈夫賈裏德?庫什納(Jared Kushner)，他們不會受到解僱威脅的影響。

To succeed Mr Kelly will have to show the deft touch of James Baker, the most successful chief of staff in modern times, who flourished under Ronald Reagan in part because he realised the importance of bringing Nancy Reagan onside.

要想成功，凱利必須展示出現代時期最成功的幕僚長詹姆斯?貝克(James Baker)那樣的機敏，貝克在羅納德?里根(Ronald Reagan)擔任總統期間大有作爲的部分原因是他意識到獲得南希?里根(Nancy Reagan)支持的重要性。

A further test of Mr Kelly’s authority will be whether he ensures top aides such as Mr Scaramucci report through him. Mr Kelly should also demand the right to sign off on Mr Trump’s tweets, said Mr Whipple, given the president’s habit of making announcements on the hoof via social media.

進一步考驗凱利權威的將是，他能否確保斯卡拉穆奇等高級助手通過他向總統彙報。惠普爾表示，鑑於特朗普有通過社交媒體即興發佈聲明的習慣，凱利還應要求獲得批准特朗普推文的權利。

Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at Brookings who dealt with Mr Kelly when the general was head of the US military’s southern command, said he had shown an aptitude working on US relations with Colombia for building alliances and fostering cross-border and cross-agency relations.

曾在凱利擔任美軍南方司令部司令時與其打過交道的布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)高級研究員邁克爾?奧漢侖(Michael O'Hanlon)表示，爲打造聯盟和促進跨境和跨機構關係而致力於美國與哥倫比亞關係時，凱利展示出了能力。

As such, Mr O’Hanlon said Mr Kelly had the raw materials to succeed as chief of staff. Much depended on whether Mr Trump was willing to change his style, however, and here there was less reason for optimism.

因此，奧漢侖表示，凱利擁有成爲一位成功幕僚長的素質。然而，他的成功將在很大程度上取決於特朗普是否願意改變他的風格，在這一點上，就沒那麼樂觀了。

“As long as the Bannons and Millers are empowered by the president, Kelly could fail just as much as the next guy despite his impressive abilities,” he said, referring to Mr Bannon and fellow adviser Stephen Miller. “He has all the ingredients that maximise the odds of success, but those are not shaped by him but fundamentally by the president.”

“只要總統賦予班農和米勒權力，儘管凱利能力超羣，他仍有可能失敗，”他表示，他指的是班農和同樣擔任顧問的斯蒂芬?米勒(Stephen Miller)，“他擁有將成功機率最大化的所有潛質，但這些不是由他決定的，從根本上說是由特朗普決定的。”