日俄接觸應受到西方歡迎

During their November meeting in Trump Tower in New York, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and US president-elect Donald Trump found they had more in common than a penchant for golf.

今年11月，日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)和美國當選總統唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)在紐約特朗普大廈(Trump Tower)會晤期間發現，除了愛好高爾夫以外，二人還有更多的共同興趣。

The details of their discussion remain confidential but it is known that Russia was one of the main topics on the agenda.

他們討論的具體內容仍屬機密，但我們知道，俄羅斯是議程上的主要話題之一。

Mr Trump and Mr Abe share a belief that they can strike important deals with Russian president Vladimir Putin.

特朗普和安倍晉三都認爲，他們可以與俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾.普京(Vladimir Putin)達成重要協議。

In a phone call with Mr Putin, Mr Trump suggested he was ready to repair relations with Moscow.

在與普京通電話時，特朗普表示，他準備修復與俄羅斯的關係。

Meanwhile, Mr Abe and the Russian leader have already established a rapport, meeting 15 times.

與此同時，安倍晉三和普京已建立友好關係，會晤了15次。

They are due to see each other again in Mr Abe’s home town on December 15.

他們將於12月15日在安倍的家鄉再次會面。

The willingness of the leaders of the world’s first and third-largest economies to embrace a hitherto isolated Moscow could signal a dramatic geopolitical realignment and redefine Russia’s role on the global stage.

全球第一大和第三大經濟體願意接納此前被孤立的俄羅斯，可能表明地緣政治格局出現重大調整，並可能重新定義俄羅斯在全球舞臺上的角色。

Mr Abe has touted a new approach to Russia based on deeper economic ties and energy co-operation.

安倍晉三炫耀對俄羅斯採取一種新姿態，基於更深層次的經濟聯繫和能源合作。

And, in light of China’s destabilising actions on maritime and cyber security, instability on the Korean peninsula and the need to diversify Japan’s energy mix, Tokyo sees Moscow as a responsible stakeholder in the east and a potential strategic partner.

鑑於中國在海上和網絡安全方面破壞穩定的行爲、朝鮮半島的不穩定以及日本能源結構多樣化的需要，日本將俄羅斯視爲東方一個負責任的利益相關者和潛在的戰略合作伙伴。

Russia, too, has an incentive to seek a rapprochement.

俄羅斯也有興趣尋求這種友好關係。

Despite its boldness on the international stage, its domestic problems are severe.

儘管俄羅斯在國際舞臺上大膽出牌，但其國內問題非常嚴重。

Corruption is rife and the economy is in dire straits.

腐敗猖獗，經濟深陷困境。

As an energy producer heavily reliant on exports of oil and gas, Russia is suffering from falling commodity prices and needs foreign investment.

作爲一個嚴重依賴油氣出口的能源生產國，俄羅斯受到大宗商品價格低迷的沉重打擊，並且亟需外國投資。

The effects of low energy prices are exacerbated by western sanctions following the annexation of Crimea.

俄羅斯吞併克里米亞後西方實施的制裁，加劇了能源價格低迷的影響。

China has emerged as a convenient partner for Russia, and its banks are a source of energy investment.

中國已成爲俄羅斯的一個便利的合作伙伴，中資銀行成爲能源投資的來源。

For example, this year the Yamal liquefied natural gas plant in the Russian Arctic received $12bn worth of loans from Chinese banks.

例如，今年俄羅斯北極地區的亞馬爾(Yamal)半島液化天然氣工廠從中資銀行獲得120億美元的貸款。

But Russia is wary of becoming too reliant on investment from China, and in September the public financial institution Japan Bank of International Cooperation entered the fray by signing a memorandum of understanding to provide $200m to the Yamal project.

但俄羅斯對於過度依賴中國投資感到擔憂，今年9月，公共部門金融機構日本國際協力銀行(JBIC)登場，簽署了一份諒解備忘錄，將爲亞馬爾項目提供2億美元貸款。

While Japan contemplates a strategic alignment with Moscow as a way of reining in China, in the west Russia is viewed very differently.

儘管日本把對俄羅斯的戰略調整視爲一種牽制中國的方法，但西方對俄羅斯的看法非常不同。

In both the US and Europe, it is seen as a significant threat to the status quo.

在美國和歐洲，俄羅斯都被視爲對現狀構成的重大威脅。

For this reason, Japanese entreaties to the Kremlin have not been welcomed in Washington, with President Barack Obama urging Mr Abe not to visit Russia for a summit in May this year.

因此，日本對克里姆林宮做出的示好行爲在華盛頓沒有受到歡迎，美國總統巴拉克.奧巴馬(Barack Obama)曾敦促安倍晉三不要參加5月在俄羅斯舉行的一個峯會。

The Japanese premier went anyway.

但日本首相還是去了。

Tokyo, however, is aware that it cannot play the Russia card as part of its broader strategy towards China.

然而，日本明白，日本不能把俄羅斯牌作爲其對中國整體戰略的一部分。

Nor does it intend to break away from the sanctions regime operated by the Group of Seven leading industrialised nations.

日本也無意脫離七國集團(G7)實行的制裁機制。

Moreover, its selective accommodation of Russia should not be seen as a zero-sum game that will lead to it severing ties with the west.

另外，日本對俄羅斯的選擇性包容不應被視爲一個零和遊戲，導致日本切斷與西方的聯繫。

Rather, by taking the initiative in this way, Japan is demonstrating its willingness to be more proactive in building order and security in the Asia-Pacific region.

相反，日本正通過這種方法採取主動，顯示其願意在構建亞太地區秩序與安全方面更加積極主動。

Japan’s engagement of Russia should therefore be welcomed by the west.

因此，日本與俄羅斯的接觸應受到西方的歡迎。

The advent of Mr Trump may create the strategic breathing space that Tokyo was not afforded during the Obama administration.

特朗普入主白宮可能會創建一個戰略喘息空間，而在奧巴馬政府期間日本未能獲得這種空間。

Mr Abe is keenly aware of the potentially favourable environment for fostering Japan-Russia relations and is therefore moving with a sense of urgency.

安倍晉三清楚地知道打造日俄關係的這種潛在有利環境，因而正帶着緊迫感採取行動。

A rare opportunity is opening for Japan and Russia to normalise bilateral relations and finally leave behind the legacy of the second world war.

一個罕見的機會正在出現，讓日本和俄羅斯雙邊關係正常化，最終擺脫二戰陰影。

But as Tokyo enjoys leeway to pursue a more autonomous foreign policy, it must be careful not to revert to the kind of opportunism that led to a neutrality pact with Stalin’s Soviet Union in 1941 and then to Japan’s fate being linked to that of the Axis powers in Europe.

但在日本有迴旋空間推行一種更加自主的外交政策之際，它必須小心行事，不要重拾曾導致日本在1941年與斯大林(Stalin)領導的蘇聯簽訂中立協議的那種機會主義，進而把日本的命運與歐洲軸心國聯繫在一起。

Japan must choose the path of principled and hard-headed engagement that it followed when it normalised relations with an authoritarian South Korea in 1965 — and again in 1972, when it established diplomatic relations with totalitarian Communist China.

日本必須選擇有原則的、理性而不感情用事的接觸的道路，就像它在1965年與威權統治的韓國實現關係正常化，以及1972年與極權的共產黨中國建立外交關係那樣。

Certainly, a peace treaty between Japan and Russia, two great powers, will be of significant benefit to regional stability, as well to both countries’ economies.

日本與俄羅斯這兩個大國之間的和平協議，必定會給地區穩定以及兩國經濟帶來顯著好處，

Mr Abe, though, must not forget the overarching goal of shoring up the liberal international order.

儘管安倍晉三不應忘記支持自由派全球秩序的至上目標。