意大利民粹主義威脅歐盟未來

Europe’s fightback against populism was going well for a couple of hours.

歐洲對民粹主義的反擊取得了幾個小時的勝利。

On Sunday afternoon, it emerged that the far-right candidate had lost the Austrian presidential election.

上週日下午，有消息稱，極右翼候選人在奧地利總統大選中折戟。

But the good news from Austria was drowned out by bad news that same evening, from the other side of the Alps.

但當晚來自阿爾卑斯山另一側的的壞消息吞噬了奧地利的這個好消息。

Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, had lost his referendum on constitutional reform and confirmed that he will resign.

意大利總理馬泰奧.倫齊(Matteo Renzi)在憲法改革公投中失利，並證實他將辭職。

The consequences for Europe of Italy’s referendum result are not as obviously dramatic as those of Britain’s referendum in June.

意大利公投結果對歐洲造成的影響不像今年6月英國退歐公投那樣引人注目。

The British voted to leave the EU.

英國人最終投票決定脫離歐盟(EU)。

The Italians have simply rejected some complex constitutional changes, which many experts regarded as ill conceived in the first place.

意大利人則反對一些複雜的憲法改革，很多專家認爲這些改革從一開始就考慮不周。

And yet Brexit and the Renzi resignation do form part of the same story.

然而英國退歐和倫齊辭職卻是同一個故事的一部分。

The European project is under unprecedented strain.

歐洲一體化正面臨空前壓力。

Britain’s decision to leave is the most striking evidence of this.

英國決定脫歐就是最明顯的證據。

But, in the long run, the unfolding crisis in Italy could pose a more severe threat to the survival of the EU.

但長期而言，意大利正在爆發的危機可能會給歐盟的生存帶來更嚴重的威脅。

The reasons for this are political, economic and even geographic.

其原因有政治的、經濟的、甚至地理的。

Italy, unlike Britain, is one of the six founding members of the EU.

與英國不同，意大利是歐盟6個創始成員國之一。

The original European Economic Community was founded through the Treaty of Rome, signed in 1957.

原來的歐洲經濟共同體(European Economic Community)是通過1957年簽訂的《羅馬條約》(Treaty of Rome)創建的。

While the British were always the most Eurosceptic of the big EU nations, the Italians were traditionally the most enthusiastic unifiers.

英國一直是歐盟大國中最疑歐的，但意大利傳統上是最熱情的統一者。

But attitudes to the EU in Italy have changed profoundly — in response to the country’s long economic stagnation, the euro crisis and fears over illegal migration.

但意大利對歐盟的態度發生了巨大變化，這是該國經濟長期停滯、歐元危機以及對非法移民的擔憂的結果。

It is hardly surprising that Italian voters are disillusioned with the status quo.

意大利選民對現狀感到失望，這毫不令人意外。

Italy has lost at least 25 per cent of its industrial production since the financial crisis of 2008.

自2008年金融危機以來，意大利工業產量至少萎縮了25%。

Youth unemployment stands at almost 40 per cent.

年輕人失業率維持在近40%的水平。

Unsurprisingly, many Italians associate the advent of the euro with a near-depression.

難怪很多意大利人將歐元的問世與幾近蕭條聯繫在一起。

Indeed, some economists believe the euro has been disastrous for Italy’s competitiveness, taking away the tools of currency devaluation and creating a deflationary environment that increases the debt burden.

實際上，一些經濟學家認爲，歐元對於意大利的競爭力是災難性的，它奪走了匯率貶值工具並創造了一個通縮環境，加重了債務負擔。

Against this grim backdrop, it is possible that Mr Renzi will be one of the last Italian prime ministers to represent his country’s traditional pro-European stance.

在這種悲觀背景下，倫齊有可能成爲最後一批代表意大利傳統親歐立場的意大利總理之一。

Of late, even he had taken to Brussels-bashing — expressing understandable disillusionment with a lack of help with the hundreds of thousands of refugees landing on Italian shores.

最近，他甚至開始抨擊歐盟——歐盟在解決抵達意大利海岸的數十萬難民問題上沒有提供幫助，他對此表達了可以理解的失望。

The Renzi government has also chafed against the economic austerity prescribed in Berlin and Brussels.

倫齊政府還對德國和歐盟提出的經濟緊縮方案感到憤怒。

Nonetheless, Mr Renzi remained basically pro-European.

然而，從根本上來說，倫齊仍是親歐的。

That is not true of the opposition parties that are now waiting in the wings.

而蠢蠢欲動的反對黨派則不是這樣。

The Five Star Movement, led by comedian Beppe Grillo, played a prominent role in defeating Mr Renzi.

由喜劇演員貝佩.格里洛(Beppe Grillo)領導的五星運動黨(Five Star Movement)在擊敗倫齊方面發揮了突出作用。

Five Star is adamant in its demand that Italy regain sovereignty from Brussels and has proposed a referendum on leaving the euro.

該黨堅決要求意大利應從歐盟那裏奪回主權，並提出就脫離歐元區舉行公投。

Mr Grillo also sees his movement as part of a general anti-establishment wave across the west and hailed the victory of Donald Trump in the US as a triumph over the Freemasons, huge banking groups and the Chinese.

格里洛還把他領導的運動視爲一場席捲西方的反建制普遍浪潮的一部分，並稱贊唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)贏得美國總統大選是對共濟會(freemason)、銀行大集團以及中國的勝利。

The reasons that Italian populism may ultimately threaten the EU even more profoundly than Brexit are not simply to do with Italy’s traditional commitment to the European ideal.

意大利民粹主義對歐盟的威脅可能最終會超過英國退歐，其原因不僅僅是與意大利一直以來對歐洲理想的承諾有關。

Also crucial is the fact that Italy uses the euro while Britain has kept its own currency.

同樣重要的是，意大利使用歐元，而英國保留自己的貨幣。

So, while Brexit is a painful and complicated business, it does not directly threaten the survival of the single currency — or risk unleashing a financial crisis.

因此，儘管英國脫歐是痛苦且複雜的，但不會直接威脅到歐元的生存，也不會引發一場金融危機。

However, the chain of events set off by Mr Renzi’s referendum defeat could potentially do both.

然而，倫齊公投失敗引發的一連串事件可能會造成這兩種結果。

The immediate danger is to the Italian banking system.

眼下的危險是對意大利銀行業體系的威脅。

In the new atmosphere of crisis, the proposed recapitalisation of troubled lenders — in particular Monte dei Paschi di Siena — is threatened.

在新的危機氣氛中，擬議的對境況不佳銀行的資本重組（特別是西雅那銀行(Monte dei Paschi di Siena)）面臨危險。

That could lead to demands for state bailouts, which will be difficult given that the state is already heavily indebted.

這可能引發政府紓困的請求，鑑於意大利政府已揹負沉重的債務，紓困將非常困難。

Revived worries about the size of Italy’s debt could then frighten investors, driving up interest rates and threatening the solvency of the Italian state itself.

再度產生的對於意大利債務規模的擔憂可能會讓投資者感到恐慌，這將推升利率並威脅意大利政府自己的償付能力。

It would be much harder to organise an EU bailout of Italy than it was to rescue Greece.

與救助希臘相比，組織一場歐盟對意大利的紓困將困難得多。

Given the size of the economy, the amounts of money involved could be far larger — which would probably trigger a political revolt in the German parliament, particularly with parliamentary elections due there next September.

鑑於意大利經濟的規模，紓困涉及的資金規模要大得多，這可能會引來德國議會的政治抗議，尤其是在明年9月德國將舉行議會選舉的情況下。

At that point, the break-up of the euro would once again become a very real prospect.

到那時，歐元解體可能會再次成爲一種非常切實的可能。

Set against this is the Italian talent for muddling through politically and economically while always avoiding ultimate collapse.

不過，意大利具有一種在政治和經濟上得過且過又總能避免最終垮臺的天分。

The EU seems to have developed something of the same talent over the long years of the euro crisis.

在多年的歐元危機中，歐盟似乎也培養出了這種天分。

Yet even if Italy manages to patch together a new government and avoid a banking crisis, the broader picture is still bleak.

然而，即便意大利成功組建新政府並規避銀行業危機，更廣泛的前景仍然悲觀。

Its economy is stagnating and its political centre is disintegrating.

意大利經濟仍在停滯，其政治中心正在瓦解。

Nationalists and populists are also on the rise in EU countries including Spain, Poland, France and the Netherlands.

此外，民族主義者和民粹主義者也正在其他歐盟國家崛起，包括西班牙、波蘭、法國和荷蘭。

Britain has promised to submit its formal notification of its decision to leave the EU next March.

英國承諾將於明年3月遞交其正式退歐決定通知。

That same month, the union’s leaders are meant to gather in Italy to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the signature of the Treaty of Rome.

同一個月，歐盟領導人將在意大利聚首，慶祝《羅馬條約》簽訂60週年。

At this rate, it will be more of a wake than a party.

按照當前的事態發展，那將更像是一場葬禮前的守夜，而非聚會。