美國民粹主義左翼崛起

Bernie Sanders is back in the saddle. Had Jon Ossoff, a centrist Democrat, won the special congressional election in Georgia on Tuesday, the party’s Clintonite wing would have been the real victor. Mr Ossoff promised to “make Trump furious”. Instead he made him happy. The Democrats keep chalking up moral victories against Donald Trump. But they have yet to achieve a single win. What might have been dismissed as the result of a one-off election will tilt the battle for control of a confused — and leaderless — party.

伯尼?桑德斯(Bernie Sanders，文首圖右)重返戰場。要是中間立場的民主黨人喬恩?奧索夫(Jon Ossoff，文首圖左)贏得了6月20日的喬治亞州特別國會選舉，那麼真正的勝利者將是民主黨內的克林頓陣營。奧索夫承諾“把特朗普搞得火大”。結果他讓特朗普得意。民主黨人對唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)取得一個又一個道德上的勝利。但他們還一次都沒有贏。有人可能會不屑地稱，這只不過是一場一次性選舉的結果，但這個結果將改變民主黨控制權鬥爭的格局。現在的民主黨非常混亂，羣龍無首。

Its biggest blow, of course, was Hillary Clinton’s defeat last November. Her backers poured money into the Georgia race, which was the most expensive in US history. But money is no substitute for passion. A win for Mr Ossoff would have signalled that the pragmatic, Emmanuel Macron, wing of the party could deliver results. It would also have emboldened Republicans to detach from Mr Trump. It may even have killed off his healthcare reform, which now looks likelier to pass into law. In spite of all that has happened, Mr Trump is still winning elections.

當然，民主黨受到的最大打擊，是希拉里?克林頓(Hillary Clinton)輸掉去年11月的大選。她的支持者對喬治亞州特別國會選舉投入重金——這場選舉是美國史上耗資最大的國會選舉。但金錢代替不了熱情。奧索弗的勝利本將發出這樣的信號：民主黨內務實、像埃馬紐埃爾?馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)的那一派，可以取得成果。這個勝利本還將爲共和黨人壯膽，鼓勵他們跟特朗普撇清關係。它甚至本還可能斃掉特朗普的醫保改革——眼下這一改革在國會獲得通過、成爲法律的可能性似乎提高了。儘管風波不斷，特朗普還在贏得選舉。

So who can stop him? If it is not the Macron Democrats, then it will be the Jeremy Corbyn types. Obstacles keep being removed from their path. Their chief ally is Mr Trump himself. Having blown up the Republican party, the US president is doing the same to the Democrats. He generates as much energy from opponents as ardent loyalty from his base. The Democratic establishment remains intact and ready for combustion. Its defeat may well be the next great act in the Trumpian remake of US politics.

那麼，誰能阻止他？如果馬克龍式民主黨人阻止不了，那就得看傑里米?科爾賓(Jeremy Corbyn)式的民主黨人了。他們前進道路上的障礙不斷被移除。他們的頭號盟友是特朗普本人。在鼓動起共和黨的熱情後，這位美國總統正在鼓動起民主黨人的熱情。他從自己的支持者根基獲得狂熱的忠誠，同時也讓對手慷慨激昂。民主黨建制派仍然完好無損，等待被點燃。民主黨建制派被打敗，很可能將是特朗普重塑美國政治這場大戲的精彩下一幕。

The recent UK election offers some useful pointers for American Corbynistas. If the experts knew one thing it was that Mr Corbyn was lethal to the Labour party’s brand. It seems they misread that too. Like his American counterpart Mr Sanders, Labour’s leader evokes a human response that transcends much of the wonkery that preoccupies analysts. I have no idea whether the strong Labour showing meant voters want to renationalise the railways. Neither do Democrats. But I do know that Mr Corbyn pulled off a big jump in millennial turnout. By contrast, Mr Macron’s party took control of parliament last Sunday on the lowest turnout in French history. Likewise Mr Ossoff undershot even Mrs Clinton’s showing in Georgia’s sixth district, in spite of the money that poured in for him.

最近的英國大選爲美國的“科爾賓”們提供了一些有用的啓示。如果說專家們之前對一件事確信無疑，那就是科爾賓對工黨的品牌有致命破壞性。看上去專家們在這件事上也錯了。就如美國的左派桑德斯一樣，科爾賓具有直達人心的感召力，超越了分析人士許多先入爲主的紙上談兵。我不知道工黨的強勁得票率是否意味着選民想要將鐵路收歸國有。美國的民主黨人也不知道。但我知道一點：科爾賓實現了千禧一代投票率的大幅上升。相比之下，馬克龍的政黨以法國曆史上最低的投票率獲得了國會控制權。同樣，儘管有重金支持，奧索弗在喬治亞州第六區選舉中的表現甚至不如希拉里。

Mr Sanders also energises the young. For proof of his ascendancy, watch the aspiring Democratic presidential candidates for 2020. Many of them are junior senators, such as Kirsten Gillibrand of New York and Kamala Harris of California. Since they are inexperienced, they have little record to run on. Since they are politicians, they stick their finger in the air. There is a stiff breeze going Mr Sanders’s way. Their stances reflect that. Free college tuition and universal healthcare are the grassroots rallying cries. Clintonite incrementalism is over.

桑德斯也能鼓動起年輕人的熱情。要證明他的影響力，可以看一看有志參選2020年總統選舉的民主黨人。許多都是資歷較淺的參議員，比如紐約州的柯爾斯滕?吉利布蘭德(Kirsten Gillibrand)和加州的卡瑪拉?哈里斯(Kamala Harris)。因爲他們缺乏經驗，他們沒有多少競選資本。因爲他們是政客，他們感知風向。現在有一股強風支撐着桑德斯。他們的立場反映了這一點。高校免學費和全民醫保是爭取基層民衆的口號。克林頓式漸進主義已經過時了。

But there is one big problem with the rise of America’s populist left. Mr Sanders will be 79 at the next election — and he is showing every sign of wanting to run again. That is older than the oldest US president, Ronald Reagan, at the end of his final term. Mr Sanders also incites as much passion in his opponents — the Democratic establishment and 1 percenters everywhere — as he does among his fans.

但美國民粹主義左翼的崛起面臨一個大問題。到下次大選時，桑德斯就79歲了——而一切跡象都顯示，他想要再次參選。屆時，他將比美國最老的總統羅納德?里根(Ronald Reagan)最後一個任期結束時還要老。桑德斯也在讓自己的粉絲狂熱的同時，讓他的對手——民主黨建制派和各地最富有的1%人口——同仇敵愾。

A Sanders nomination would almost certainly trigger a third party run. Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York, will be a slightly more youthful 78 in 2020. At 74, Mr Trump would be younger still. Such a three-way race could secure his re-election.

如果桑德斯獲得提名，那幾乎肯定會促使一名獨立候選人蔘選。2020年，紐約市前市長邁克爾?布隆伯格(Michael Bloomberg) 78歲，比桑德斯略小一點。屆時74歲的特朗普更爲年輕。這樣的三方競逐可能會幫助特朗普獲得連任。

Then there is the mercurial fluidity of politics today. If the Democratic establishment is ripe for disruption, why stop with Mr Sanders? Mr Trump’s victory has incited the dreams of a thousand billionaires. Think of Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks basketball team. Or Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook’s co-founder. Or Oprah Winfrey for that matter. When the rules of the game are changing this fast, it is futile to predict where the chips might fall.

此外，當今政治變幻莫測。如果顛覆民主黨建制派的時機已經成熟，爲何止步於桑德斯？特朗普的勝利激起了一千個億萬富翁的夢想。想一想達拉斯小牛隊(Dallas Mavericks)的所有者馬克?庫班(Mark Cuban)。或者Facebook聯合創始人馬克?扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)。甚至歐普拉?溫弗裏(Oprah Winfrey)。當遊戲規則在如此迅速地改變，預測結局走向是徒勞無益的。

But it is highly entertaining. In an age of attention deficit disorder, America has a president who can entertain. Can the Democrats find a Trumpian doppelg?nger? For the time being, that man is Mr Sanders. Like Mr Corbyn, he comes across as sincere. Like the crazy uncle in the attic, he cannot change the subject. You may find his economic views naive or dangerous. But you know what he stands for. Once you start listening, it is hard to stop. If you are young, you appreciate his idealism.

但這是非常有娛樂性的。在一個缺乏耐心的年代，美國有一個能娛樂大家的總統。民主黨能夠找到一個酷似特朗普的人嗎？就目前而言，那個人是桑德斯。像科爾賓一樣，他給人真誠的印象。像蝸居在閣樓上的瘋叔叔一樣，他沒法轉換話題。你可能會覺得他的經濟觀點有些天真甚至危險。但你至少知道他的立場。一旦你開始聽他說，你就很難停下。如果你還年輕，你會欣賞他的理想主義。

The question is no longer whether America’s populist left is rising. It is who will lead it.

問題已不再是美國民粹主義左翼是否在崛起，而是誰將是領頭人。