普京未必樂見英國退歐
While international views of Britain’s referendum on EU membership are eagerly solicited and picked over, and Germans, Chinese and Americans may be quizzed by either side for reassurance or nuance, Russia’s support for Brexit is assumed. Vladimir Putin was an early, if unwitting, recruit as bogeyman in the service of those campaigning for the UK to remain in the bloc.
不管是退歐派還是留歐派都殷切徵求國際社會對英國退歐公投的看法，雙方或許也都尋求德國、中國和美國的支持或是尋找他們態度上的細微差別，但他們都認定俄羅斯支持英國退出歐盟。俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)無意中早就被留歐派視作反派角色。
David Cameron, prime minister, bracketed the Russian president with the leader of Isis as people who would be “happy” at a victory for Leave. Michael Fallon, UK defence secretary, told MPs that Brexit would be “payday for Putin”; former foreign secretary Jack Straw branded Boris Johnson, former London mayor and leading advocate of the Leave camp, a “Putin apologist” for criticising EU policy towards Ukraine. Vote out, the Remain argument goes, and you will be advancing Russia’s nefarious purpose.
英國首相戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)將普京與“伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)頭目相提並論，認爲他們將爲退歐派的勝利而“感到高興”。英國國防大臣邁克爾•法倫(Michael Fallon)對議員稱，英國退歐將成爲“普京的收穫日”；前外交大臣傑克•斯特勞(Jack Straw)將前倫敦市長、退歐陣營主要支持者鮑里斯•約翰遜(Boris Johnson)視爲“普京的辯護者”，因爲約翰遜對歐盟的烏克蘭政策持批評態度。留歐派還認爲，英國退出歐盟將有利於俄羅斯實現險惡用心。
The logic runs like this: Mr Putin’s ultimate objective is the destabilisation, even the collapse, of the EU. A vote by a big member state to leave would be a significant step in that direction. Therefore Brexit is in Moscow’s interest. Underlying this thesis are two ingrained western beliefs: that Russia’s intentions towards the west are only malign; and that it sees the EU as vulnerable.
他們的邏輯是：普京的終極目標是歐盟出現不穩定，甚至解體。一個大成員國的退出將是朝着這個方向邁出的重要一步。因此，英國退歐符合莫斯科方面的利益。支撐這一論點的是西方根深蒂固的兩大信條：俄羅斯對西方只懷有惡意；它認爲歐盟很脆弱。
How true is this? Russia might well prefer a weaker EU — a grouping which, by the way, it sees as expansionist and strong — but willing the bloc’s disintegration is something of a quite different, and more dangerous, order.
這種判斷在多大程度上是準確的呢？俄羅斯很可能希望看到一個較弱的歐盟——實際上它認爲歐盟強大且懷着擴張之心——但希望歐盟解體則是另外一回事，也更加危險。
The absolute priority for the Kremlin has long been Russia’s security, and regional stability is seen as a condition for that. Russians of Mr Putin’s vintage have lived through the break-up of the Warsaw Pact, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the fear that the Russian Federation could also disintegrate. Viewed from Moscow, the prospect of the EU falling apart threatens Europe-wide contagion from which Russia would not necessarily be spared.
長期以來，克里姆林宮把俄羅斯的安全作爲重中之重，而地區穩定是實現這一目標的先決條件之一。與普京同時代的俄羅斯人都經歷過華約(Warsaw Pact)解散、蘇聯解體以及擔憂俄羅斯聯邦也可能解體的時期。在莫斯科看來，歐盟解體造成的後果很可能波及整個歐洲，俄羅斯未必能獨善其身。
Russia is commonly accused of trying to undermine the EU. But playing the bully towards the Baltic states and cosying up to Greece, while leaving a sour taste, are for the Kremlin no more than diplomatic manoeuvres. It regards such probing as affordable, precisely because it sees no risk that the EU will, as a result, fall apart.
俄羅斯常常被指試圖暗中削弱歐盟。但恫嚇波羅的海諸國並示好希臘，對克里姆林宮而言只不過是外交策略。俄羅斯認爲這樣進行試探代價不高，而這正是因爲它不認爲歐盟因此將有走向解體的風險。
In practical terms, Russia appreciates the EU’s solidity and the convenience of dealing with one trading area. Moscow was seriously rattled when the single currency appeared to be at risk — to the point of offering financial support to the European Central Bank. It saw a euro collapse as a danger to Russia, too.
實際上，俄羅斯重視歐盟的穩固以及與單一貿易區打交道的便利。當歐元遭遇危機時，莫斯科似乎深感不安——到了向歐洲央行(ECB)提供資金支持的程度。俄羅斯也將歐元崩潰視爲對本國的威脅。
The EU’s success, as perceived in Moscow, is what Mr Putin wanted to replicate with the Eurasian Economic Union. This was to be a voluntary grouping of states on the EU model, building on Soviet-era economic links. It was to be a partner for the EU, not a competitor. But first the EU refused to deal with it, and then came the contest for Ukraine. The project now looks moribund, but that does not mean Russia wants to strike down the EU in revenge.
普京希望歐亞經濟聯盟(Eurasian Economic Union)能複製歐盟的成功。歐亞經濟聯盟的目標是成爲一個建立在蘇聯時代經濟聯繫基礎上、以歐盟爲樣板、自願參與的國家集團。其初衷是成爲歐盟的合作伙伴，而非競爭對手。但從一開始，歐盟就拒絕與該組織打交道，而後來雙方又因烏克蘭問題陷入對抗。雖然這項計劃目前看起來停滯不前，但這並不意味着俄羅斯想通過擊垮歐盟進行報復。
Which leaves an intriguing question. If Russia is not actually rooting for Brexit, why is neither Mr Putin nor any of his allies saying so? Partly, perhaps, because they are well aware of the savaging they would receive if they seemed to interfere in the UK’s internal affairs. Partly also perhaps Machiavellian: if casting Mr Putin as a bogeyman makes a Remain vote more likely, so be it.
這帶來了一個引人深思的問題。如果俄羅斯實際上並不支持英國退歐，爲什麼普京及其盟友都不表態呢？也許部分原因在於，他們深知任何疑似干涉英國內政之舉都會招致猛烈抨擊。還有一個原因或許是出於權謀考量：如果讓普京當反派能讓留歐陣營的勝算更大，那樣也好。
The Kremlin has given no hint of any preference. If you chance upon a Russian diplomat in a quiet corner you might find, if not outright hostility to Brexit, then profound misgivings. Which is why, although the western consensus is that Mr Putin is preparing to toast an Out win, do not be so sure. The champagne may indeed be on ice. Whether it is in anticipation of a UK vote to leave the EU is another matter.
克里姆林宮沒有給出支持哪一方的任何暗示。如果在一個安靜角落偶遇一位俄羅斯外交官，你或許會發現，他們不是直接表示反對英國退歐，就是流露出深深的不安。因此，雖然西方的共識是普京正準備爲退歐陣營的勝利乾杯，但不要如此肯定。香檳或許的確放在冰塊上，但這是否預示期待英國退歐是另一回事。
