如果英國選擇脫離歐盟 退歐將撕裂英國

There are two unions whose fortunes rest on the outcome of the June 23 referendum. If Britain chooses Brexit the consequences will be serious, though probably not terminal, for the 27 remaining members of Europe’s union. Germany and France are doubtless thinking hard about how best to underscore the cohesion of the rest of the EU. The second union — that of the nations of the United Kingdom — would be at greater risk from the centrifugal forces of a Leave vote.

6月23日公投的結果將決定兩個聯盟的命運。如果英國選擇脫離歐盟，對於歐盟(EU)其餘27個成員國而言，後果將很嚴重，儘管很可能並非致命。德國和法國無疑正在努力思考，如何最好地強調歐盟其他成員國的團結。第二個聯盟——組成聯合王國的國家之間的聯盟——將更有可能感受到脫離投票的離心力。

The Outs have become the voice of strident English nationalism. The Conservative-led Leave campaign has all but abandoned the considered case for quitting the EU to throw in its lot with the populists of Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party. The shared message is anti-immigrant, anti-establishment, anti-intellectual and anti-just about anything you care to think of. Call it project anger.

退歐已成爲強硬英格蘭民族主義的聲音。某些保守黨人士領導的退歐運動(Leave campaign)基本上放棄了深思熟慮地闡述退出歐盟的理由，而是跟奈傑爾•法拉奇(Nigel Farage)領導的英國獨立黨(UKIP)的民粹主義者抱成一團。兩者傳遞的共同信息是反移民、反體制、反智主義，反對你想得起來的任何事物。不妨稱之爲“憤怒項目”。

Whatever the overall outcome, the nations and regions of the UK will not vote as one. A glance at the geography of British opinion suggests that three areas are all but certain to back maintaining the present relationship with Europe. London, Northern Ireland and Scotland all show clear pro-European majorities. Wales is harder to call.

無論總體投票結果怎麼樣，組成聯合王國的國家和地區將呈現不同的投票傾向。英國民意的地理分佈表明，有三個地區幾乎肯定會贊同維持與歐盟的關係現狀。在倫敦、北愛爾蘭和蘇格蘭，親歐派明顯佔主導立場。威爾士則較難預測。

London’s continental tilt is one of self-description. The capital has thrived as a global city, welcoming workers and migrants from across Europe and the world. London is France’s sixth-largest city, welcoming up to 300,000 French citizens. It offers a second — and sometimes a first — home to Italians, Poles, Spanish, Portuguese and many others, as well as to those arriving from more distant shores.

倫敦的大陸傾向從其自我描述就可看出。這座首都作爲一個全球城市而蓬勃發展，歡迎來自歐洲乃至世界的工作者和移民。倫敦容納了多達30萬的法國公民，堪稱法國第六大城市。對於意大利人、波蘭人、西班牙人、葡萄牙人以及那些來自更遙遠地方的人而言，倫敦是他們的第二（有時是第一）故鄉。

The city is comfortable in its diversity. The recent mayoral election saw the Conservative candidate Zac Goldsmith wage a shamefully Islamophobic campaign. Londoners turned out in record numbers to back Sadiq Khan, a British-born Muslim.

這座城市對自己的多元化感到自在。在不久前的市長選舉中，保守黨候選人扎克•戈德史密斯(Zac Goldsmith)發起了一場可恥的仇視伊斯蘭運動。結果，倫敦人對在英國出生的穆斯林候選人薩迪克•汗(Sadiq Khan)的支持票數創下紀錄。

The capital has none of the self-consciously starched Englishness of the affluent, Brexit-leaning home counties. And though London includes pockets of considerable poverty, they lack the ethnic grievance apparent in the poor towns dotted along southern England’s eastern coast. My guess is that, confronted with the choice, most Londoners would apply visa controls to visitors from its native (mostly white) hinterlands before shutting off the flow of Polish doctors and Indian engineers.

這座首都沒有富足、傾向脫歐的周邊各郡那種自己覺得了不起的英格蘭人意識。儘管倫敦也存在一些局部的貧窮地段，但這裏的人們沒有英格蘭南方的東海岸貧窮城鎮裏那種明顯的種族怨恨。我猜，要是有選擇，大多數倫敦人將寧願對來自英格蘭鄉下的主要是白人的遊客實施簽證控制，而不是對波蘭醫生和印度工程師關上大門。

Northern Ireland, where recent polls have pointed towards a big majority in favour of Remain, has different concerns. As for many things, Europe is viewed through at least two sets of lenses. Broadly speaking, the Catholic, mainly nationalist community is overwhelmingly European in its outlook. Protestant unionists are more evenly divided, with polls suggesting a bias towards Brexit. Overall, the province will vote to remain.

北愛爾蘭有着不同的關切。最近的民意調查顯示，這裏的絕大多數人贊同留在歐盟。就像在許多事情上一樣，北愛爾蘭人至少透過兩個透鏡看待歐洲。基本上，以愛爾蘭民族主義者爲主的天主教人羣在觀念上是強烈傾向於歐洲的。支持聯合王國統一的新教人羣的立場則比較分化，民意調查似乎表明支持脫歐的傾向。整體而言，北愛爾蘭將投票支持留在歐盟。

A UK-wide vote to sunder ties with Brussels would destabilise a part of the UK still bearing the scars of sectarian violence. Shared membership of the EU was integral to the success of the British and Irish governments in coaxing nationalists and unionists towards peace. Rising prosperity in the north has been built on an open border with the Republic and, of course, on generous grants and investment incentives from Brussels.

如果整個聯合王國的投票結果是切斷與布魯塞爾的關係，將給英國的一個宗派暴力傷疤仍未痊癒的地區帶來不穩定。英國和愛爾蘭都是歐盟成員國，對於兩國政府成功地勸服民族主義者和統一陣營雙方向和平努力，這是必不可少的因素。北愛爾蘭地區不斷繁榮發展，是建立在與愛爾蘭共和國開放邊境基礎上的，當然還有歐盟的慷慨撥款和投資激勵。

Brexit would transform an invisible frontier between Northern Ireland and the Republic into the external border between the UK and the EU. The UK’s departure from the single market and the imposition of immigration curbs would require the return of cross-border checks on people and trade. And should Scotland press again for independence, how long would it be before the English began to see Northern Ireland as an unwelcome economic burden? This is the sort of reasoning that has persuaded the government of Gibraltar to throw its weight behind the pro-European side.

如果英國脫離歐盟，北愛爾蘭和愛爾蘭共和國之間看不見的國界，將成爲英國與歐盟之間的外部邊界。英國脫離單一市場並實施移民控制，將意味着恢復人員和貿易的跨境檢查。蘇格蘭應該再次推動獨立嗎？英格蘭人什麼時候會開始把北愛爾蘭視爲一個不受歡迎的經濟負擔？正是這種推理勸服了直布羅陀政府站到親歐陣營。

Euroscepticism has never really taken root in Scotland, perhaps because of its association with the English nationalists on the Tory right. Mr Farage’s Ukip has made only limited headway. So, like London and Northern Ireland, Scotland seems assured of a sizeable pro-European majority. A UK-wide Brexit vote that wrenched Scotland out of the EU against its will would be a gift to pro-independence nationalists.

歐洲懷疑論從未真正在蘇格蘭站穩腳跟，或許是因爲這種論調與保守黨右翼的英格蘭民族主義者之間的關聯。法拉奇的英國獨立黨僅僅取得有限進展。所以，正如倫敦和北愛爾蘭一樣，蘇格蘭似乎註定是親歐投票佔明顯多數。如果全英投票決定脫歐、違背蘇格蘭的意志將其挖出歐盟，那將等於爲鼓吹獨立的民族主義者送上一份禮物。

After failing to win an independence vote in 2014, the governing Scottish National party suffered a setback in last month’s elections to the Edinburgh parliament. It lost its overall majority and with it the authority to call another independence referendum. But Britain’s departure from Europe would re-energise the argument. The prospect of a Scotland shackled to an England that had thrown up barricades against the continent would make erstwhile unionists think again.

繼2014年未能贏得獨立公投之後，執政的蘇格蘭國家黨(Scottish National Party)上月在愛丁堡議會選舉中遭受了挫折。該黨失去了多數席位，從而喪失了再舉行一場獨立公投的權力。但是，英國脫離歐盟將再度激活獨立主張。把蘇格蘭捆綁在對歐洲大陸說不的英格蘭身上，這種可能性將讓以前的統一陣營人士三思。

So they should. The case for the UK union is much the same as that for UK membership of the EU: by pooling sovereignty, nations increase their capacity to act effectively. If England left the EU it would make eminent sense for Scotland to swap one union for another.

他們應當這麼做。支持聯合王國的理由跟支持英國留在歐盟的理由基本上是一樣的：成員國把主權集中到一起，可以提高有效行動的能力。如果英格蘭要離開歐盟，對於蘇格蘭而言，退出一個聯盟以換取另一個聯盟的成員身份將是很有道理的。

It is too soon to speak of an independent London, though looking beyond Brexit it is not hard to see the capital demanding much greater autonomy. What does seem clear is that a Leave vote would intensify the political fragmentation of the UK union. Without Europe, the Brits may decide, Britain looks a much less attractive proposition.

現在談及倫敦獨立還太早了，不過，如果英國脫歐成功，我們不難看到英國首都將會要求更大自治權。看來確實很明顯的是，脫離歐盟的投票結果將加劇聯合王國的政治分化。脫離了歐洲，英國人或許會得出結論認爲，英國本身的現有架構也不那麼有吸引力了。