英國脫歐有意義嗎 In trade geography matters more than you think

When you can download software from the US or your favourite song from Australia, it is not surprising that both the tech-savvy and those wanting Britain to leave the EU assert that geographical proximity has never mattered less. This is a favourite phrase of Daniel Hannan, a Brexit-supporting Conservative member of the European Parliament. It also happens to be a myth.

當你能夠從美國下載軟件或從澳大利亞下載你最喜歡的歌曲時，不奇怪的是，精通科技者和那些希望英國離開歐盟(EU)的人都斷言，地域上的鄰近從未像現在這樣不重要。這是支持英國脫歐的歐洲議會(European Parliament)成員、英國保守黨人丹尼爾•漢南(Daniel Hannan)最喜歡說的一句話。但它恰恰是錯誤的。

Take two countries, one with historic ties to Britain and which shares the same language, the other is merely in the middle of the European continent. New Zealand and the Czech Republic were both $200bn economies in 2014, measured at prevailing exchange rates, and Britain trades significantly more with one than the other. Imports and exports of goods and services in 2014 were 3.9 times higher with our European not-so-near neighbour than with our distant former colony.

以兩個國家爲例，一個與英國有着歷史淵源，使用同一種語言，另一個只不過地理位置居於歐洲大陸中部。根據當前匯率計算，新西蘭和捷克2014年的經濟規模都是2000億美元，英國與其中一國的貿易明顯多於它與另一國的貿易。2014年，英國與相距並不算太近的捷克之間的商品和服務進出口規模，是它與相距遙遠的前殖民地澳大利亞的3.9倍。

This is not cherry-picking countries. Britain might not play a lot of cricket with Spain but it trades 3.3 times more with its former enemy than it does with Australia. Both Spain and Australia are $1.4tn economies, but British people are more willing to travel short haul for sunshine and sangria than for the lifestyle of Neighbours, the long-running Australian television soap opera.

這並非孤證。英國或許不怎麼跟西班牙在一起打板球，但英國與這個歷史上的死敵的貿易額是英國與澳大利亞貿易額的3.3倍。西班牙和澳大利亞的經濟規模都是1.4萬億美元，但英國人更願意去鄰近的西班牙享受陽光和桑格里亞酒，而不是千里迢迢去澳大利亞感受《家有芳鄰》(Neighbours)中的生活——《家有芳鄰》是澳大利亞一部播了許多年的電視劇。

Geography still matters in trade, but distance is not the only determinant. Size of market is also important. As China’s weight in the world economy has grown rapidly, so naturally has the amount of trade with Beijing.

在貿易領域，地理位置仍然重要，但距離並非唯一的決定因素——市場規模也很重要。隨着中國佔全球經濟規模的比重迅速增長，英國與中國的貿易規模自然而然也擴大了。

China is a growing share of Britain’s trade, for sure, but let’swe should not exaggerate its importance. Compared with the Chinese gross domestic product was $10.4tn in 2014 but trade with Britain’s trade accounted for 0.9 per cent of itthe Chinese economy, much smaller than the EU’s trade with Britainthe UK, which accounted for 5.5 per cent of the EU economy in 2014.

中國在英國對外貿易中所佔比重肯定正日益上升，但我們不應誇大中國的重要性。中國2014年的國內生產總值(GDP)爲10.4萬億美元，中英貿易僅佔中國經濟規模的0.9%，遠遠低於歐盟與英國貿易規模佔前者經濟規模的比例，這一比例在2014年爲5.5%。

Not only is Britain’s trade with the EU much larger relative to the size of the market, geography also appears to be becoming more, not less, important. Ten years earlier, in 2004, Beijing’s trade with the UK accounted for 1.4 per cent of China’s economy, a larger slice, but the trade intensity with the EU has remained essentially the same.

不僅是英國與歐盟的貿易以市場規模衡量比它與中國的貿易密切得多，地理位置的重要性似乎也在上升，或者也可以理解爲在下降。2004年，中國與英國的貿易佔中國經濟規模的1.4%，比例高於今日，但與歐盟的貿易強度則一直保持基本不變。

So-called gravity models, which are economic analyses that try to explain trade patterns by geography and size of markets, find that Britain trades more than might be expected with Europe largely because that market is much more integrated than a free-trade zone.

所謂的貿易引力模型(gravity model)發現，英國與歐洲的貿易密切程度可能超過了模型的預計，這在很大程度上是因爲這個市場的一體化程度遠遠超過自由貿易區。貿易引力模型是一種經濟分析，試圖通過地理位置因素和市場規模解釋貿易模式。

Although the economic theory of trade started with David Ricardo’s stories about exchanging Portuguese wine for British cloth, most modern trade occurs among similar goods and services in similar markets. It and brings benefits from increased forces of competition, raising productivity through improved processes and management and eliminating theinefficient producers.

儘管經濟學中關於貿易的理論始於大衛・李嘉圖(David Ricardo)用葡萄牙紅酒交換英國布料的故事，但多數現代貿易表現爲相似市場之間交換相似的商品和服務。這種交換是有好處的，因爲它加大了市場競爭，而競爭能夠促使生產者改進流程和管理、淘汰生產效率低下的產品，從而提高生產率。

Reducing tariffs and removing quotas boost trade and bring gains but deeper integration, harmonisation of regulation, recognition of other countries standards, prohibition of artificial state aid and eliminating non-tariff barriers are more powerful. For Britain, the only big and close market in which it can achieve these benefits is the European single market. All other large markets are too far away.

降低關稅和取消配額會擴大貿易並帶來好處，但加深一體化、統一監管制度、承認別國標準、禁止人爲政府援助和消除非關稅壁壘是更有力的辦法。英國唯一能夠享受到這些好處的大型封閉市場就是歐洲單一市場。所有其他大型市場都距離太遠。

Countries and companies often find deep integration uncomfortable because the weak go to the wall complaining bitterly. But that is as it should be. Complete in goods, the single market still needs to develop further in services.

國家和企業通常往往不願意推進深層次的一體化，因爲弱者會大聲抱怨。但就應該這樣做。歐洲單一市場在商品自由流動方面已經發展完備，但仍需繼續破除阻礙服務自由流動的障礙。

Britain would therefore be deluded to leave the single market even if it were to vote to leave the EU. That, of course, would mean the country would have to pay an entry fee, accept free movement of people, regulation set in Brussels and pooled sovereignty. In which case, it is legitimate to ask, what is the point of Brexit?

因此，即便英國投票離開歐盟，英國離開單一市場將是愚蠢的。當然，留在單一市場則意味着，英國將不得不支付市場準入費，接受人員的自由流動、由布魯塞爾制定的監管規定以及主權共享。那樣的話，我們有理由問：英國脫歐還有何意義？