南中國海局勢值得關注的六點

The US Navy on Tuesday launched an operation to send a warship to within 12 nautical miles of two man-made islands in the South China Sea. Here are six things to look out for as maritime tensions escalate.

週二，美國海軍展開了一次行動，將軍艦派至南中國海兩個人工島附近12海里水域內。在海上緊張局勢升級之際，有六點值得人們注意。

1) The South China Sea is becoming increasingly militarised. In recent years, China has built five artificial islands in the South China Sea and is constructing at least three airfields that could handle military aircraft. In response to the Chinese military presence, the USS Lassen, an Arleigh Burke class destroyer, will sail close to two of those islands. Beijing, in turn, is likely to accuse the US of militarising the region.

一、南中國海正變得日益軍事化。最近幾年，中國在南中國海修建了五座人工島，並且正在上面建造至少三座可起降軍用飛機的機場。作爲對中國軍事存在的迴應，美國阿利伯克級(Arleigh Burke)驅逐艦拉森號(USS Lassen)駛近上述島嶼中的兩座。接下來，北京方面很可能會指責美國將該地區軍事化。

2) It is about control of the seas, not about who owns the islands. The US is not sending a destroyer near the man-made islands to protest China’s sovereignty claims in the South China Sea — the US insists it is neutral about the territorial disputes between China and five other countries. Instead, the US is trying to show that artificial islands do not give China control over the surrounding seas. Under international law, countries have jurisdiction over 12 nautical miles around genuine islands but not around man-made features.

二、這次行動關乎的是對該海域的控制，而不是誰擁有這些島嶼。美國派驅逐艦迫近這些人工島，不是爲了抗議中國在南中國海的主權聲索——美方堅稱對中國與其他五國間的南中國海領土爭端不持立場。實際上，美國是試圖宣示，人工島並不賦予中國對周邊海域的控制權。依照國際法，各國對天然島而非人工島周邊12海里水域擁有管轄權。

3) That means the details are important. The US Navy is sending the destroyer to Subi and Mischief reefs for a good reason — according to experts in the US, both artificial islands are completely man-made. Fiery Cross reef, another of the new islands where China is building a military-capable airfield, did originally have some rocks above water, which could give it a slightly more ambiguous legal status.

三、這意味着細節很重要。按照美國專家的說法，美國海軍將驅逐艦派往渚碧礁(Subi reef)和美濟礁(Mischief reef)的理由很充分，這兩個島嶼都是純粹人工建造起來的。至於另一個新島嶼永暑礁（Fiery Cross Reef，中國正在上面修建可用於軍事目的的機場），最初的形態中確有部分岩石在水面之上，這可能會令該島的法律地位略微含糊一些。

4) There is more to come. US officials say that the so-called “freedom of navigation operation” is the start of a series of missions in the area. But future operations will also sail close to land features claimed by other countries, including the Philippines and Vietnam, to try to show that the US is not taking sides in the territorial disputes.

四、接下來還會有行動。美國官員表示，所謂的“通航自由行動”是在該地區一系列任務的開端。不過，美國在未來的行動中還會駛近菲律賓和越南等其他國家聲索的“地物”(land features)，試圖證明美國並未在領土爭端中選邊站。

5) China’s reaction. None of that is likely to appease Beijing, which has already reacted angrily to the prospect of US naval missions near its new islands. Analysts think that the biggest risk — a confrontation between US and Chinese vessels — is unlikely at this stage. However, China could use the US move as a pretext to step up its military presence on the islands, putting in place more radar and other communications equipment and giving it greater capacity to monitor activity in the region.

五、中國的反應。北京方面很可能不會心平氣和地看待這一切，它之前對美國海軍在其新修島嶼附近展開行動的可能性已經作出了憤怒的迴應。分析人士認爲，現階段還不太可能出現美中軍艦對峙這種最大的風險。不過，中國可能會把美國的舉動當作一個藉口，來擴大自身在這些島嶼的軍事存在，安裝更多的雷達和其他通信設備，從而獲得更多監視該地區活動的能力。

6) The regional response. By and large, the rest of the region will welcome the US move. Vietnam and the Philippines have been outraged in recent years by what they see as China’s power play in the South China Sea. More recently, Malaysia and even Indonesia have expressed concerns. The big long-term question is whether the US is able to use this anxiety to mobilise a coalition of nations in the region that can balance China’s growing power.

六、該地區的反應。總體上看，該地區的其餘國家會歡迎美國的舉動。近幾年來，越南和菲律賓對它們眼中中國在南中國海的高壓攻勢感到非常氣憤。不久之前，馬來西亞甚至印尼也表示過擔憂。一個重要的長期問題在於，美國能否利用這種焦慮在該地區組織起一個國家聯盟，以制衡中國不斷增長的實力。